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Standing No Chance

S&P 500 bucked strong headline NFPs – the dip was bought at my preannounced 5,335 level, allowing fine intraday gains captures. Sectoral rotation view was though much less clear – tech, financials up while utilities, communications and discretionaries down. Weak and risk-off day in equities, with Russell 2000 standing no chance.

Little wonder with rate cut odds reversing their weeklong rise, and so abruptly. What strong services PMI didn‘t achieve, strong headline NFPs coming from birth-death model adjustments when business formation is down, participation rate down, unemployment rising, parttime being way stronger than fulltime, but hourly earnings up. Also the SME employment backbone on Wednesday showed weakness, leading me to conclude there is significant NFPs revision ahead.

It was though the real asset moves (gold, silver and copper) that caught everyone‘s eye – and I‘m diving into these in the following text, including CPI and FOMC predictions.

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Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article contains 5 more of them, with commentaries.

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Gold, Silver and Miners

S&P 500 and Nasdaq

Just how much of a decline opportunity before FOMC there is, is apparent from the below silver 4-hour chart accompanied by discussing the bottoming process. In absence of buyers emerging, undershooting remains a distinct possibility – Friday‘s volume was too heavy to ignore.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq
S&P 500 and Nasdaq

Summer months in precious metals are usually sideways and lean, but the strong spring shows that downside here is relatively limited compared to the forthcoming upswing in this range bound context of gold moving between low $2,280s and $2,450. The moments before CPI can provide such a brief trading opportunity.

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All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

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