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My Inflation Data Expectation

S&P 500 with Russell 2000 didn‘t like the incoming bad consumer data that I predicted Thursday, yet the 500-strong index proved really resilient. There was no appetite to sell long-dated Treasuries either, and Sep rate cut odds barely retreated (from 50% to 48.6%). With Kashkari and Powell messages diverging this much (remember the latest two FOMC meetings being on the dovish side in spite of inflation data proving their stickiness), what are the credit markets saying about the upcoming inflation data aftermath?

S&P 500 and Nasdaq

What kind of rescue are the coming inflation data be – can they reasonably further the May resilience in bonds? Thus far, the stock market allowed for nice intraday opportunities capture, and saw tech not really lead to the upside.

I‘ll answer these points for clients below, and will reveal later on what I thought and why.

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Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article contains 3 more of them, with commentaries.

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All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

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