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That Oversold Bounce

Instead of putting in at least a couple of hours upswing, S&P 500 again started selling off early in the US session. First tech, then communications, and finally a few cyclicals caved as well (financials, and then way behind energy, materials and healthcare – these held up). Heavy selling again won, and it was easy to call off the oversold bounce danger in intraday terms. Swing traders were of course unaffected – if I had to pick only two aspects why, it would be earnings (selling the news of relatively decent ones, and decreased forward guidance with especially revenue projections) and yields rising from the long consolidation called weeks ago.

Add in manufacturing recovery, easy financial conditions, strong retail sales and job market not showing many signs of stress, and then the disinflation pace slowing down (OK, there is some room still in the shelter figures ahead to help out) way above the Fed‘s intended 2% but closer to 3% inflation target leading Powell to throw cold water on the notion of cutting too much too soon (hello Sep, can it be at least you?), to complete the picture of bearish headwinds.

The current correction is not done even if we get an oversold bounce – that would be purely technical move, and the best market participants can do, is to keep checking for signs of short-term bottom being put in. Technical indicators show that the turning point still lies ahead of us, and we‘re nearing it pretty much.

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Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article contains 4 more, with commentaries.

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Gold, Silver and Miners

S&P 500 and Nasdaq

Friday‘s action cleared up the correction risk reaching possible as far as $2,275 in favor of gradual eating through available supply. Remarkable resilience to rising yields goes on, but it must be noted that nominal yields haven‘t risen much over the last two days. Still, the cup is slightly more than half full as regtards upswing continuation.

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All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

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