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Central Banks Dovish Surprises

S&P 500 had plenty of good technical and macro reasons to decline, such as disinflation slowing down to a crawl well before the pre-corona usual trough of 2% CPI. With PPI being higher than CPI, downgrading the GDP growth expectations is justified, and that translates to slowly slowing down real economy. The table was simply set for two rate cuts only, not three – and choosing the less restrictive action coupled with going easier on the balance sheet, would have consequences better visible towards the year end and 2025 inflation data.

Powell also played the job market card, following which the stock market upswing gained true traction (good for discretionaries) – the reversal action was so fast that it enabled only a quick bottom picking before the press conference in intraday terms.

And now we got SNB rate cut – the only fly in the ointment is USDJPY at 151 again (was 152 yesterday, and too much dollar bid isn‘t good for the systemic liquidity and risk taking sentiment), For now though, it‘s game on, and precious metals are the deserved beneficiaries, all called for clients in the daily articles last weeks and in the gold & oil Telegram channel.

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Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article contains 3 of them, featuring S&P 500, precious metals and oil.

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Gold, Silver and Miners

crude oil

Gold confirmed yesterday‘s bottoming call as much as a run to $2,190 still yesterday, given on the premium gold & oil Telegram. Today will be remarkable for lack of a noticeable pullback, and gold will slightly lead over silver, and copper would consolidate as it‘s not a go-to monetary metal, and thus benefits less from easy liquidity and more from the economic cycle.

Crude Oil

gold, silver and miners

Oil hasn‘t yet recovered – that will happen during next week, but energy stocks will prove more resilient and among the sectoral winners. Still, the series of higher lows established 2024, will go on, and so will the higher highs.

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All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

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