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Unsettling Powell Conference

S&P 500 refused a good bearish opportunity, and it was obvious already well before EST noon – BoJ hike considered one and done, fostered complacency and dip buying. New highs new lows together with quite a few oscillators (CCI, RSI and soon also Slow Stochastics) keep in the bearish divergence posture, so the question remains what can be the catalyst to bring a temporary respite, a surprising decline in stocks, or whether the slow grind higher would continue amid again retreating volatility.

Rising USD as per the path covered in yesterday‘s thorough article keeps favoring sellers when potential upside to downside is compared – except not already before FOMC as seemed over 24hrs ago, but on the Powell press conference. Additional clue would be the real assets (gold, oil) warning I issued over the gold & oil premium Telegram late yesterday. Bonds are primed to rise today, and that will have consequences – I‘m looking at gold bucking GDX and SIL decline in the context of its shallow correction confined to $2,140s at worst..

This is how I summed up the situation in the European morning in our intraday channel for stocks (I‘m fully opening today‘s analysis due to the immense Fed importance so that you know precisely what my earlier thoughts on the topic were – you know the inflation ones already, and it‘s not good when PPI is higher than CPI, or that trend in core and CPI bottom at rather 3% than 2%).

S&P 500 and Nasdaq

As always, more Telegram and Twitter coverage follows during the day.

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Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article contains 3 of them, featuring S&P 500, precious metals and oil.

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S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook

S&P 500 and Nasdaq

5,225 was overcome, and 5,235 was established premarket as support – some overshoot into FOMC seems possible, but 5,255 resistance will be a very tough nut to crack when we‘re facing a „surprising“ monetary policy picture counting with only two rate cuts and probably deferring the Jun rate cut to Jul (this recognition could take up to one month to digest in the Fed watch tool).

As said yesterday, tail risks are rising, and the Fed isn‘t going to attenuate them this time around – I am not looking for a bullish hooray repeating autumn 2023 FOMCs.

Gold, Silver and Miners

crude oil

Gold is nicely consolidating, and even if yesterday could have been better, the bottom is unlikely to fall out today – the yellow metal with of course oil would be among the first to recover from any hits and rising demand for Treasuries.

Crude Oil

gold, silver and miners

Oil has entered the little daily weakness right after my premium call, and would very comfortably remain above $80.50 – there is no stampede of sellers in copper either with its $4 or $3.98 supports. Note how well my bullish XLE call keeps working.

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All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

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