HOME » STOCK TRADING SIGNALS » Trend Change Implications

Trend Change Implications

S&P 500 didn‘t produce even a fake opening upswing going for 5,235 – straight down since the bell through 5,207 led by tech. Bad breadth got even worse, bond market of course failed to recover Thursday‘s lost ground (preceding hot CPI and PPI called will introduce more stagflationary vibes alongside slowing down GDP growth), yet rate cut odds haven‘t moved much, and that to me reflects a vulnerability going into FOMC.

If in doubt, consider the barely there USD upswing Friday – good daily consolidation but once again 103.50 strong resistance called months earlier as a trouble maker not permitting the index getting far away from, looms – maybe 104 with backing and filling before slowing economy comes more into spotlight, ushering in implicit bets on Fed support of the economy to make a difference before Nov. Before that, higher for longer will reenter popular vocabulary some more.

BoJ is also set to start policy normalization in Apr as I called it to mid winter, and USD performance reflects stark deficit spending outside of a recession. It‘s though rather the more accommodative ECB mindful of eurozone economies flirting with recession, and yet EURUSD is still higher than where it was mid Feb – thanks to still easy global liquidity that would keep a lid on dollar appreciation.

No outhawking the Fed, and indeed there is room for a hawkish, not dovish surprise on Wednesday – fear not though more rate hikes, the disappointment would come on the rate cuts uncertainty front.

The S&P 500 correction barely started and has longer to run, leaving 5,115 Jun contract in peril for the weeks ahead. Just look at the on-off Russell 2000 performance (interest rate sensitive sectors) to see where this is going. The same for worrying combo of rising oil, gasoline, retail sales with discretionaries struggling – see yields starting to break higher, inflation protected securities (TIPS) appeal as well relative to TLT, and continuing rotation into materials and energy…

Yes, after a great stock market run, it‘s now up to real assets and the much touted gold, oil and copper that are to shine – with silver slowly joining in alongside miners. New spark? More evidence of inflation not leveling off, is all it takes.

Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times (notifications on aren’t enough) – combine with subscribing to my Youtube channel, and of course Telegram that always delivers my extra calls (head off to Twitter to talk to me there), but getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox is the bedrock.
So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and make use of both Twitter and Telegram – benefit and find out why I’m the most blocked market analyst and trader on Twitter.

Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article contains 3 of them, featuring S&P 500, precious metals and oil.

Tired of seeing those red boxes instead of way more valuable information? Try the premium services based on what and how you trade.

Premium content (covered in full within Monica’s Trading Signals) reserved for Monica’s Stock Signals subscribers. Log in to your premium account to read it.
Full scale premium content reserved for Monica’s Trading Signals subscribers. Log in to your premium account to read it.

Gold, Silver and Miners

crude oil

Gold showed remarkable resilience Friday, miners held their own and silver rose – that‘s not the sign of a coming flush, but of reallocation to silver given inflation moving closer to the spotlight (for now, merely for its inability to keep declining). Targets are given in the caption – bullish flag is likely to be resolved to the upside following FOMC, where I don‘t see a huge hawkish surprise. Huge is the key word here.

Crude Oil

gold, silver and miners

Again, it‘s impossible to be bearish oil with $80 cleared and nicely defended Friday, yet mid $79s will be approached towards FOMC before oil rises again – in line with my stagflationary thesis on the horizon rising in prominence. Not a recession, but noticeable growth deceleration and inflation trending up to 4% and more (CPI through 4% and PPI through 4.6%, which also copper will keep loving.

Premium content (covered in full within Monica’s Trading Signals) reserved for Monica’s Stock Signals subscribers. Log in to your premium account to read it.
Full scale premium content reserved for Monica’s Trading Signals subscribers. Log in to your premium account to read it.

Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica’s Trading Signals covering all the markets you’re used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica’s Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. Forget not the lively intraday Telegram channels for indices, stocks, gold and oil – here is how you can join any advantageous combination of these.
Go beyond the free Monica‘s Insider Club serving instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves.
Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

Thank you,

Monica Kingsley
Stock Trading Signals
Gold Trading Signals
Oil Trading Signals

Copper Trading Signals
Bitcoin Trading Signals


* * * * *

All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Sign Up for Monica’s Insider Club!

It’s free and you’ll get my message right when a new post goes up.

Scroll to Top