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Beware of Rising Swings

S&P 500 was predictably roiled by CPI above expectations more than by core PCE data end Feb, but even two good intraday moves weren‘t enough to break below Monday‘s lows and deliver a less shallow correction. Weren‘t it for increasing intraday volatility in Bitcoin, its stock plays (MSTR, COIN and MARA), it would be all fine and being long would have been the reasonable peace of mind proposition.

Instead, a flush such as Friday can‘t be ruled out even if the upleg is nowhere near finished, and disinflation losing steam isn‘t an issue for this earnings, fundamentals driven rally within still strongly growing economy and rich corporate and household balance sheets (see specialty retailers, or discretionaries in general) – what‘s thus tougher to capture in swing terms if you first aim for two or three dozen ES points flush, is easier to navigate in intraday terms regardless of yesterday‘s volatility, which was precisely the case.

Now with retail sales tomorrow, we‘re likely to get a new buying opportunity in the ever quicker settling dust.

That‘s how I summed it up this European morning in our channel.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq

Way more details follow in the individual chart section.

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Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article contains 3 of them, featuring S&P 500, precious metals and oil.

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Gold, Silver and Miners

crude oil

The announced corrective consolidation in gold has started, and I see it breaking $2,150, so let‘s wait and gauge sensitivity to rising yields before rushing in long again.

Crude Oil

gold, silver and miners

Crude oil is ready for another move through $79 higher, and is back in the dips being bought mode – the same for copper that‘s embarking on another run off $3.88 targeting $4.

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Monica Kingsley
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mk@monicakingsley.co

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All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

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