Forgetting May Cut

S&P 500 was pummeled on hotter CPI, and if oil (gasoline, diesel) keeps grinding higher over the next four weeks, that would result in rate cuts being deferred even more than Mar one with around 8% odds. Forget not about Apr when I expect BoJ to start moving towards policy normalization, and that would work to underpin the present yields move higher, covered extensively on Monday, and also helping the dollar swing upwards.

Not many events are ahead today – Goolsbee and Barr speaking, bunch of oil related data, and of course short-dated Treasuries autcion. Following yesterday‘s quick intraday gains on the short ES side, today‘s calls probably till unemployment claims tomorrow, would go for gradual retracement of yesterday‘s decline – 5,005 is the first serious resistance, and overcoming 5,024 would then firmly return the initiative to the bulls. Nasdaq isn‘t to disappoint either – to the contrary.

My thesis of shaking off rate cuts disappointments, and striving to push higher again nonetheless, is still on – and this week provides a good chance for that. Till PPI, which is what is likely to bring a similar yet less pronounced gyration as CPI did.

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Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article contains 3 of them, featuring S&P 500, precious metals and oil.

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S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook

S&P 500 and Nasdaq

Late day race creating long lower knot favors the buyers for today, no matter the action during the early part of the regular session. Tech is better positioned than Russell 2000 to shake off the change in rate cuts path, but look for no steep upswing overcoming 17,840 in Nasdaq futures before EST noon. Still, semiconductors performance yesterday bodes well for MSFT, AAPL and NVDA over the next 24hrs. The bulls would sure go buying the dip – the upswing isn‘t yet exhausted.

Crude Oil

crude oil

Crude oil keeps rejecting not just downswing, but also a comparatively shallow correction – the table is set for a slow grind higher into Friday.

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All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

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