SPY Reversed – What Now
S&P 500 couldn‘t make it above 4,825, and tanked – the two intraday rips failed at Dec 29 intraday lows of 4,797 – but swing trading profits were in for the clients already then for a total of +222 pts delivered during Dec, which brings the portfolio equity curve again nicely up (check all the explanations in the tweet and on the redesigned homepage).
Summing up yesterday‘s session in our channel where I also delivered +14 pts winner today already, and Ellin +47 pts yesterday, this is what I wrote (the game plan is left out for premium clients – I‘m repeating it right below for my initiative swing trading clients as well).
What were the clues making me publish such a bearish article Jan 01? Quoting said article:
(…) The readiness to sell fast (arguably not coming from institutions), and Friday‘s volume being so much higher in SPY, confirms this hypothesis, and following some initial (dip) buying on Jan 02, elevates the risk of retail driven booking of stock market gains.
Also the fact that IWM declined so much more than SPX, without any relief rally sticking, and XLRE, KRE and XBI all getting smacked on rising volume alike, doesn‘t bode well for risk taking in the beginning of 2024, say into Monday Jan 08, which also concerns the winning sectoral picks I had been serving you – even more so given the volume of gains therein since the late Oct bottom.
VIX too is looking too complacent following Friday‘s partial SPX and NDX comeback – back at 12.45 after being rejected above 13. Things just look too calm for a quick pullback not to strike – at the same time, bond market posture (2y yield still declining to 4.23, while 10y rose to 3.88% – nice expression of Friday‘s stock market woes) and still continued disinflation (look though for shelter upside surprises in the months ahead) favor more stock market gains early 2024, and that concerns ES, NDX, and especially IWM.
Summing up the outlook for the days ahead (courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – the rotations are fine and dandy, but that‘s not enough to bring out indexwide buying. Bond market decline and dollar rally are though getting very short-term extended here. The dust following profit taking entry to the year, is slowly setting down.
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All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
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