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SPY Reversal Danger

I hope you had great New Year‘s Eve celebrations, and once again Happy New Year! S&P 500 was again rejected at 4,840, and started slowly losing altitude into Chicago PMI, which ushered in selling wave as the figure (46.9 vs. 50.1 expected) didn‘t really boost the ruling soft landing narrative in a heavily optimistic market.

Let‘s bring up the premium daily analysis published on my site, which I‘ll put into fresh light following Friday‘s close:

(…) It‘s the Santa rally after all, yet S&P 500 is having issues extending gains much above 4,830s. Blame the year end positioning and unwillingness to deploy big institutional money this late in the year. There probably is still some tax loss harvesting (some may lock in gains) to be done today, and if that happens in the best runners of the year (SMH, NDX, even ES), once these get (re)bought into Jan 02, this may affect them most of the way into Tue Jan 09. Things would work similarly to a springboard, reversing last trading day‘s moves to a degree on Tuesday.

As regards Russell 2000, the fuse was lit only late Oct, so this effect would be less pronounced, and institutions have been shorting it as much as biotech or real estate probably (that commercial real estate crisis that didn‘t come still, regional banks situation papered over successfully in Mar, or dramatically improving liquidity ever since late Oct with all the increasing rate cut bets and soft landing hopes returning as per my early Nov call).

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One chart to sum it up (courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – either retail buying the dip steps in within 1-2 days latest and stocks suck in even more endless rally believers only to see the rug pull right thereafter, or the buyers won‘t muster enough strength at the onset of the year, and the stock market goes lower.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq

Today‘s analysis is shorter than intended, shorter than usual (but still covering real assets below), as I‘m slowly getting better following the quick bout of weakness and feeling cold as of Friday, which requires more a single weekend to get rid of in full. Thank you for your understanding and Happy New Year!

S&P 500 and Nasdaq
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All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

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