ECB and Weak Manufacturing Ambush
S&P 500 had trouble extending FOMC gains, and just when it looked that the 4,720 held as support, stocks were again rejected at 4,735, losing dozens of pts quickly – only to come back overnight. Well, the chief catalyst was ECB not meeting the Fed degree of dovishness in the least. Rotations continued just like I predicted yesterday in the morning – tech weakness was predictably there, and it was cyclicals and interest rate sensitive plays with Russell 2000 that drove the subsequent rebound.
For swing traders as well, this is a fair summary, but stocks may have to consolidate a bit longer than just a single day to get through 4,735 decisively. Disappointing Empire State manufacturing at -15 led to an initial bullish gap in ES that was however sold into, so better take off the intraday gains off the table (ES -5 pts, but more than made up with the NDX long bringing in 151 pts).
As always, more detailed commentary and levels follow in the chart section.
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Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article contains 4 of them, featuring S&P 500, credit markets, precious metals and oil.
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Bonds still have the risk-on posture, but I wouldn‘t rely on yields further declining to be a stock market driver higher like there is no tomorrow. Such an outcome needs half decent incoming data, which isn‘t what we got today.
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All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
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