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I Promised FOMC Fireworks

Just as I wrote yesterday, FOMC delivered fireworks and Santa is at work everywhere, not just in S&P 500. In today‘s special analysis revealing how I played the stock market move in our intraday channel, I‘ll also show you as continuation of my weekly stock and sectoral picks to outperform the S&P 500, and a continuation of the good premium calls of late – updated with the post FOMC dynamics just in. Swing trading and investing clients (i.e. readers of any of the two premium daily publications of mine), have been set up properly to reap the rewards for so many days already.

Let‘s start with couple of hours before FOMC, my long Nasdaq call – the most interesting part is where I identified pullback area in advance, insisting it‘s not a good place to be shaken off profitable longs (prices are CFD, which is practically cash).

NDX intraday

Of course, the high was overcome in aftermarket, and given the most meaningful Fed policy shift sending Mar rate cuts odds to two thirds probability – FOMC where the Fed committed to rate cuts even if no recession is declared next year by NBER – it‘s quite clear that all the interest rate sensitive plays within S&P 500 and Russell 2000 as such, benefited the most after Nasdaq did its job yesterday. It‘s pretty rare that the Fed in effect declares satisfaction with the progress of inflation, job market, wage increases in a quite self-congratulating and very dovish conference – I however think that later in 2024, inflation would come back to seriously bite again.

intraday

For now, markets couldn‘t be happier about easy money prospects – please pay close attention to how I play the rotations game from both a trading and investing stand point – and fear not hedge funds as they‘re our allies in 2023 performance chasing this late in the year.

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Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article contains 4 of them, featuring S&P 500, credit markets, precious metals and oil.

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S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook

S&P 500 and Nasdaq

This isn‘t about intraday levels now – my 4,665 premium initial upside target has been overcome with ease – and S&P 500 isn‘t stopping here. Following the island continuation aka running correction breakout higher, the Fed policy shift would power further gains well into Jan. Note the rising volume, and still more cash to be deployed from money market funds as rates keep retreating, which is precisely what I had been readying clients for since early Nov.

Credit Markets

HYG, LQD and TLT

Bonds have confirmed with follow through what they had been signalling for quite a while. Instant reaction to Fed signalling Fed funds rate below 4% before 2024 is over as risk taking goes on. The rising financials and confident 30y Treasury auction Tuesday were other clues I gave you in advance of the move – just like this gold market upswing to come one.

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Monica Kingsley
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mk@monicakingsley.co

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All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

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