Must Be Soft Landing, Markets Say
S&P 500 had little second thoughts on NFPs, and rebounded in yet another soft landing celebration. You could rightfully say that the job market didn‘t show any signs of slowdown Friday with participation rate increasing and unemployment rate retreating – that‘s a bit of contradiction of weak Wednesday‘s JOLTS data, but still good enough for considering orderly slowdown in economic activity as inflation keeps declining – I‘m looking for Tue CPI to come in on the cooler side at either 3.1% or 3.2%.
Just where do those Mar rate cut projections come from, is a bit puzzling – why would the Fed cut rates if economic activity wouldn‘t get on the verge of slowing down significantly? The belief that inflation is making sustainable progress to 2% this fast, can‘t be taken at face value – I think the decline in yields is a combination of decrease in inflation metrics and worrying signs that even if the economy isn‘t in a declared recession, tax receipts are slowing down even if fiscal spending is through the roof and overpowering the restrictive Fed that‘s selling us the notion that the bond market has done the tightening for the central bank already enough.
S&P 500 saw continued AI frenzy on GOOG Gemini scoring high on human characteristics, and META with MSFT stock price benefiting from AMD solutions adoption, boosting all of these stocks – and smaller tech plays did well, well enough for rotation inside the sector when cyclicals such as financials and industrials did well. Also my sectoral pick of communications raced higher – but I‘m leaving way more detailed sectoral and individual stocks views as reserved for clients within the regular weekly update for investors in this article (with Ellin we touched on a single pick in our channel together with this two day-summary of S&P 500) – just treat yourselves to quality daily and intraday analytics…
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Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article contains 7 of them, featuring S&P 500, credit markets, sectoral picks, precious metals and oil.
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As the caption says, stocks fared reasonably well given the daily spike in yields, and dollar revival higher – its rally that I called to happen from 102.30, is still progressing after Thursday‘s hiccup (also called before the US wakes up Thursday in our intraday channel as one of the conditions for S&P 500 making a daily comeback).
Gold, Silver and Miners
Precious metals have now reached my long discussed $2,010 support, and reflect with delay the rise in dollar once the buying climax burnt itself out. USD direction will determine the next short-term move, but this is not a chart to buy into yet – and gold miners offer better upside potential if only $1,980 is defended.
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All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
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