Goldilocks Latter Innings Indeed
S&P 500 continued the post FOMC risk-on move, the bear squeeze. 4,298 was broken with ease, and the upswing didn‘t stop even in the high 4,310s. Following this level, I see the mid 4,330s as the key one that better hold – and looking at yesterday‘s semiconductors vs. tech showing or HYG intraday hesitation, or even AAPL earnings aftermath (see other big stocks, to name a few just NVDA and AMZN how they badly struggled to extend post opening gains), I favor the bears going into NFPs.
Remember that NFPs are a seriously lagging job market indicator, and even if manufacturing PMI turned south sharply, JOLTS with unemployment claims indicate real economy that is still doing fine, therefore the turn in yields we have have seen early Wednesday, is in my view jumping the end of goldilocks gun – and yet another lagging indicator, CPI, would continue to prove their stickiness, keeping some muted bets on Fed hiking alive and flaring up here and there. Did you know that inflation historically breaks down when the economy has been in recession for half a year already?
That‘s what I published before the data came.
150K is a serious miss, especially since combined with prior months downside revisions. It clearly shows goldilocks to be in its latter innings as per my latest articles and tweets.
That leaves stock buyers still in the driver‘s seat without as much as a solid pullback, and invalidates gold sideways correction continuation, and boosts oil as well. Signs from yields, less than 20% hike odds till Jan 2024, EURUSD and USDJPY confirm the upswing in stocks as one to continue.
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Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article contains 4 of them.
Credit Markets
See continued bets on deterioration in economic prospects to go on – long end of the yield curve would see more retreating rates today as well.
Crude Oil
Crude oil is likewise (following NFPs) to trade above $82, and to continue base building before swinging higher over the following week.
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All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
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