SPX Bears Rule
S&P 500 held up reasonably well Friday as it took many hours to break low 4,280s. Not that Mideast news would be providing relief – and sectoral view had been consistently deteriorating during the day, allowing me to make not only swing trading shorts, but also intraday ES and DAX short calls to benefit clients. I also did call for the 200-day moving average break, and for this downswing not to be over. We ended the week on a bright note, and unlike the preceding one, the excessive bearish positioning on Mideast isn‘t there now (possibly on account of diplomatic efforts and Israel‘s hesitancy to start ground offensive) – meaning it could materialize on actual developments, and add to selling pressure next week. I simply view the start of a relief rally as too soon – apart from a possible bullish gap, not likely to happen within a couple of hours of Globex open on Sunday.
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Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article contains 5 of them.
S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook
Bears confirmed the initiative following 4,330 break, and not even 4,278 was able to stop the selling – my Friday‘s article thoughts were confirmed. 4,260 also gave, proving the bears‘ strength. Contact with 200-day moving average isn‘t the reason to buy – conversely in this case, I would be expecting selling into strength when it comes to upcoming GOOG and MSFT earnings.
Copper
Copper is acting weak, and that has to do with the real economy on track to enter recession no earlier than 3 months from today. Prospects for acceleration are faltering for 2024, and hard landing is unavoidable.
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All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
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