Those Rising Rates Again
S&P 500 did indeed reverse gloomy positioning Friday, and my Sunday prediction of SPX correction only, is proving right. Failing twice to overcome 4,415, today‘s session saw 4,388 break on retail sales coming strongly above expectations. No issue though for nimble intraday traders though as our premium Telegram calls brought you well over 100 ES e-mini pts yesterday combined – and today‘s supports already shared as much as in my chart analytics below.
Good economic data though brings up the Fed rate raising fears (no matter how much dialed back these still are till Dec 2023) – and a stock market dip that would get bought. As I wrote in the intraday channel, such a reaction would happen within 45min of the opening bell (buyers gradually emerging), and it would have to start with Nasdaq stabilization first, and EURUSD giving up at least half of the post retail sales downswing.
Goldilocks economy is to still win over rate raising fears – the multitude of recent Fed speakers are to be trusted as regards of Nov or even Dec rate hike absence.
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Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article contains 4 of them.
S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook
4,365 is a good enough support, but may be temporarily broken so as to shake off weak longs. 4,354 though wouldn‘t be reached or broken as this is where strong bid is to emerge latest. Again, it would be cyclicals to lead stocks higher, and communications underperformance would be apparent on a daily basis today (even compared to tech).
Sectors and Stocks
Consumer discretionaries are one of those overweight rather than underweight sectors. The consumer isn‘t in bad shape (household balance sheets), and XLY with AMZN are likely to recover from today‘s weakness reasonably soon.
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All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
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