Mideast Market Impact
S&P 500 sharply reversed the non-farm payrolls decline, and rallied off oversold readings, and the same can be said about junk corporate bonds, smallcaps and other intermarket risk metrics. After the bear squeeze ran its course, Middle East came into spotlight, and the following 4-part series shows the immediate and longer term consequences for markets. The premarket calls still hold.
More analytical coverage comes within the regular chart section – and as promised, I‘m opening a small sample from, a little preview of, the new sectoral and individual stocks upgrade to the daily Trading Signals and Intraday Signals publications – welcoming feedback so as to serve you best!
Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times (notifications on aren’t enough) – combine with subscribing to my Youtube channel, and of course Telegram that always delivers my extra intraday calls (head off to Twitter to talk to me there), but getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox is the bedrock.
So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and make use of both Twitter and Telegram – benefit and find out why I’m the most blocked market analyst and trader on Twitter.
Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article contains 5 of them.
Sectors and Stocks
Weekly tech chart shows that this „safe haven“ is unbroken, and that the Magnificent 7 have kicked in as much as semiconductors, and this correction is tentatively over – and Middle East won‘t change that in my view.
Yields though are to be watched for resuming their upswing – 10y hasn‘t topped, and is marching well above 5%. While the war tensions last, Treasuries have ideal opportunity to gain in value, and that would support tech, Big Tech (differences inside exist, but now I‘m talking the sectoral direction that‘s supported by semis not lagging behind). Yes, it‘s an amazing show of relative strength in NVDA and AMD – a harbinger of accumulation to rule in the weeks ahead, especially if inflation doesn‘t misbehave in more sticky ways, and Nov rate hike gets pushed to Dec only.
Real economy isn‘t yet rolling over, and sufficient residual faith in disinflation exists to underpin NDX in its decline, and the Sep bottom bullish divergence vs. ES tips the odds of appreciation to go on for a good couple of weeks (roughly till Nov FOMC gets into focus).
This was a sample of a single sectoral analysis that I tie to the current business / credit / both cycle(s). Next comes a sample individual stock analysis. Whether sectoral or individual stock review, these will form a regular part of the daily ES-SPX-NDX analyses, and won‘t be delivered only once a week, but more often.
Communications are in a weaker relative position than tech, and NFLX is a good example thereof. See how poorly it did on Friday‘s squeeze. The volume differential is quite dismal. While the $370 bottom is obviously in, and unlikely to be broken on a closing basis this week, the path to $400 – $410 would be thorny – I see the stock as mostly sideways and consolidation over the nearest 1-2 weeks. If tech catches solid bid, NFLX is sure to partially benefit, but that bid depends upon yields and dollar direction – I am cautiously optimistic, and favor meager NFLX gains over the nearest weeks.
Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica’s Trading Signals covering all the markets you’re used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica’s Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates.
While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves.
Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!
* * * * *
All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Sign Up for Monica’s Insider Club!
It’s free and you’ll get my message right when a new post goes up.