HOME » STOCK TRADING SIGNALS » Bear Over Quad Witching

Bear Over Quad Witching

Friday brought a much awaited reversal of all the CPI and PPI stock market gains, raising the Nov rate hike odds finally above 50%, with more tech-led selling as 10y yield finally took on 4.33% again, and it‘s not done yet. Nasdaq succumbing, accompanied by discretionaries with communications – more so than cyclicals with value – is the proper constellation of what markets would see more often as we approach early Oct.

Simply put, relatively good economic figures in the States raise both the hike odds and duration of Fed pause expectations (which is what markets ignored through Thursday), bringing up rates differential vs. Europe and Japan, resulting in rising dollar. Add in the slowly recovering China, and not finished rising oil prices, and you have more evidence and reasoning for return of inflation I timed to return with Aug CPI data and reaching at least 4.4% in Dec 2023, and also for its stickiness with headline reverting back towards core rather than the other way round.

Couple with tight job market, wage pressures, still tame unemployment claims, depleted excess savings and nominal retail sales still well below spring 2021 peak – all in times of no recession yet, then add in sizable fiscal deficits rivaling truly recessionary ones, with refinancing needs at much higher rates, and it‘s little wonder that default rates approach the GFC levels while unemployment is below 4% still. Just imagine what merely 1% rise would do in the future.

The outlook in stocks, chiefly the Top 7 ones, remains to underperform the rest, and for more than a couple of days this month still. It means tech would be again leading the downswings, bringing up fine Friday gains in Intraday Signals, and of course benefiting you, the daily publications subscribers as well, just like today. The bear is slowly waking up from hibernation, and premarket doesn‘t surprise.

Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times (notifications on aren’t enough) – combine with subscribing to my Youtube channel, and of course Telegram that always delivers my extra intraday calls (head off to Twitter to talk to me there), but getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox is the bedrock.
So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and make use of both Twitter and Telegram – benefit and find out why I’m the most blocked market analyst and trader on Twitter.

Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article contains 3 of them.

Premium content (covered in full within Monica’s Trading Signals) reserved for Monica’s Stock Signals subscribers. Log in to your premium account to read it.
Full scale premium content reserved for Monica’s Trading Signals subscribers. Log in to your premium account to read it.

Gold, Silver and Miners

gold, silver and miners

Buying interest remained with gold, with delay as inflation positioning kicked in on not too bad latest data. Goldilocks economy for the moment still rules, and expectations of little in the way of more Fed tightening is still on. It‘s unlikely the Fed would convincingly jawbone the markets into Nov rate hike certainty Wednesday, meaning that copper also remains well bid above $3.75.

Crude Oil

crude oil

Crude oil fulfilled the consolidation expectations, and more of the same can be expected in the following days. Still before recession becomes apparent, $100 would be approached, with all the inflation and Fed tightening consequences.

Premium content (covered in full within Monica’s Trading Signals) reserved for Monica’s Stock Signals subscribers. Log in to your premium account to read it.
Full scale premium content reserved for Monica’s Trading Signals subscribers. Log in to your premium account to read it.

Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica’s Trading Signals covering all the markets you’re used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica’s Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates.
While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves.
Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

Thank you,

Monica Kingsley
Stock Trading Signals
Gold Trading Signals
Oil Trading Signals

Copper Trading Signals
Bitcoin Trading Signals


* * * * *

All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Sign Up for Monica’s Insider Club!

It’s free and you’ll get my message right when a new post goes up.

Scroll to Top