Yields Haven‘t Given Up
10y tested the top at 4.33%, and retreated back to the 4.23% support – but S&P 500 kept declining yesterday. The dollar and real assets were though less determined to move correspondingly, which means that stocks may hold up better today than the 4,365 (another support zone, its upper border) hints at, equals we wouldn‘t get orderly selling continuation or acceleration into a crash till the closing bell. At the same time, this data light day won‘t be a genuinely VIX crush Friday one – the buyers can reasonably target 4,390 at best. The warning sign is accelerating decline in XLK below $166.50 on heavy volume. Tech simply isn‘t buying the retreat in yields as definitive, but next week would start on a better note for the buyers.
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Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article contains 3 of them.
Gold, Silver and Miners
Gold steady slide through $1,930 accelerated into a $15 support break, which gives less that 50/50 odds of it being the washout (well, washout less so rather than a move wearing you out and noticeably accelerating while doing many upper knots). Silver with copper have started to look brighter already – copper $6.68 is likely to hold, and both of these metals (the red and white one) are likely to finish marginally up today. The PMs tentative bottom call lives on, and is being tested.
Crude oil performed according to expectations, and the yesterday discussed $79 line held. The prospects for today are about more testing of the $79 area in what‘s shaping up to be another day of 10y yield rebounding off 4.23% perhaps 5 basis points higher and USD going up relatively more so than yields.
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All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
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