SPY Bears Repulsed, Briefly
S&P 500 reversed mid session, but it would be premature to call for the end of the correction – odds are that following today‘s rebound, which I saw as likely to stall in the 4,535 area as easy gains from rotation into beaten down sectors are made, and those defensives with energy won‘t be as generous today.
For now, stocks will try to position optimisticallty for low CPI (below 3.3% or better yet below 3.2%), and the degree to which they would be able to peek above 4,535 would provide a hint as much as real assets, yields and the dollar.
I‘m looking for modest traces of optimism that would be reversed tomorrow as CPI comes hotter than expected, catching markets off guarf – and boosting Fed raising bets correspondingly.
More stock market sectoral and other analysis can be found in the chart section.
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Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article contains 3 of them.
Gold, Silver and Miners
Gold is still grinding lower, and may reach a good few bucks below yesterday‘s lows while waiting for CPI – all that‘s needed is a bit rising yields again, which is e.g. on 10y doable (above 4.10% again). Silver together with copper are to face greater pressure than gold before the announcement while oil gets least challenged even in the aftermath. Energy is making a comeback, and natgas is also likely to extend gains – good seasonality is here.
Crude oil didn‘t proceed to bulding a bull flag – does it seek to make a running correction where prices only temporarily retreat? Volume behind buyers following every decline, is suggesting that – but I would still look for a quick and relatively shallow pullback into tomorrow‘s CPI – then the upswing can continue as the tightening dust is likeliest to settle down here first.
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All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
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