Snapping Back Gently
S&P 500 flirted with 4,115 again after that great intraday HYG reversal portended downside volatility when cyclicals didn‘t really point higher. The day ended with a profound deterioration in market breadth
and unappealing sectoral overview
Tech upswing invited selling interest, while value and especially Russell 2000 turned strongly south. ES though had been relatively resilient given both manufacturing and retail sales hits, and today‘s data in housing weren‘t slated to bring a disaster. The figures are obviously more optimistic than they would have otherwise been if the market could clear itself by bringing in more supply, which isn‘t though a realistic expectation when mortgage rates have been locked low in a different era of 2020-2021.
Similarly retail (WMT, TGT) earnings aren‘t truly concerning – they merely underline the weakening consumer, and more bleak expectations for Q2 figures. The same for real estate not being out of the woods.
For now, the stock market advance remains concentrated in the top 10 (chiefly tech) stocks, and Wednesday‘s prospects aren‘t disastrous – with no overnight fall even if USD broke higher to 102.80, I‘m looking for another tight range muddle through day where 4,149 followed by 4,154 stand in the way, and a close clearly below 4,136 would be a nice bearish daily victory in this long lasting tight S&P 500 range. Watching today‘s rotations chiefly for clues.
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Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today’s full scale article contain 4 of them.
Rising yields haven‘t brought down stocks much, let alone tech with the ever deteriorating breadth there. Today will mark a pause in the risk-off stance, not a reversal higher to last.
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All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
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