Retail vs. Stocks
S&P 500 downswing refusal would prove temporary, and the pinched consumer retail sales data will keep serving as recessionary reminder. In this five part tweet series, I detailed why yesterday‘s bullish achievements aren‘t changing the bearish medium-term picture (more breathing room once this opex week is over) – in terms of the degree of positive economic surprises, weakness in sectoral overview with retreating financials and other typical bull market bellwethers.
HD also disappointed, and the language used confirms more consumert weakness ahead. Then, there is the debt ceiling to be milked for what it‘s worth. Keep in mind this remarkable array of bearish factors.
Let‘s dive into the individual markets with extra USD commentary.
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Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today’s full scale article contain 4 of them.
S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook
Today should play out on a gently risk-off note, bringing another close below 4,136, but without the necessary acceleration coming with the 4,0xx handles. 4,115 remains still hard to break, and requires more leadership from bonds such as when Fed speakers later today keep the focus on unended inflation fight and all that brings.
This modest improvement won‘t be enough to power S&P 500 to 4,149 and beyond today, really not. Conversely, it would be erased shortly, and the advance-decline line with new highs new lows would hint at another false dawn within this long range.
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All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
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