For all the narrow range day, S&P 500 bears look to be waking up – in conjuction with USD. Highlighted by Russell 2000, to be confirmed by real assets today as much as by cryptos – 4,136 battle looms.
Don‘t forget the key inflation data from the UK seriously overshooting expectations, marking the next Fed tightening and keeping tight path. Not even MS expects rate cuts this year. NFLX earnings prediction also illustrates the weakening consumer as much as recent retail sales.
Liquidity keeps shrinking, lending standards are getting tight, MS set up increasing loan loss provisions as well – time to start slowly dusting off the bear return gear (return within the context of a larger trading range – couple of key resistances turned supports to break through first). The earliest tweet of today, is getting confirmed as we speak.
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Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).
S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook
The struggle at overcoming 4,188 is more than welcome – are the buyers losing slowly steam? 4,209 didn‘t even come into jeopardy, and the most optimistic case for the sellers calls for putting serious pressure on (and breaking) 4,136.
TSLA earnings could be the catalyst here – where I see the greatest risk, is on the revenue / forward guidance rather than gross profitability side. Look for rising input costs with labor to bite increasingly more – watch out! Overall, should still confirm the slowing down real economy (what else do the price cuts in the US show anyway?).
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All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
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