Banking vs. Recession
S&P 500 celebrated both the low PPI and CPI headline lately, chose not to focus on core data (key metric for the Fed), and reacted with a temporary downswing only when reminded of recession – be it Fed minutes or today‘s retail sales, with consumer confidence to come still.
More intraday commentary on Twitter and Telegram follows as always – best combined with individual chart sections below.
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Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).
S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook
Stocks are advancing on still poor market breadth even if financials anticipated good bank earnings today. Bonds though didn‘t stand in the way, but risk taking in junk corporate ones is attracting some second thoughts (is the credit juice freely flowing again?). I‘m looking for stocks to take on 4,188 (with success) rather than breaking below 4,129 really. Whether tech continues doing well, or rotation into value kicks in, is the key factor as regards the next trading days (the latter is constructive for this still ongoing rally – this isn‘t yet time to turn short-term bearish).
Gold, Silver and Miners
Precious metals haven‘t topped, but the hawkish remarks (Fed, ECB) will hit them at one point. For now, it‘s still about carefree upswing driven by dollar woes (reminiscence on my Sunday thoughts).
Crude oil is to keep treading water a little before heading higher again – that‘s the function of recession signs popping up. Shallow consolidation ahead at best.
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All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
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