NFPs Expectations

S&P 500 bears missed a good opportunity Friday, and for all the anticipated deterioration in unemployment claims, couldn‘t keep the pressure on. Neither semiconductors, nor financials, nor Russell 2000 were enthusiastic, let alone value stocks – industrials and materials were limping too, testifying to the defensives led daily reversal (utilities and consumer staples, followed then by healthcare). Above all, tech had a good day, but the advance-decline line turned barely positive, new highs new lows are lagging, and only advance-decline volume saved the day.

Bottom line, the bear market rally upswing is still suspect, and stocks are overvalued both on E and P/E basis given that no no landing is ahead.

Conversely, today‘s non-farm payrolls can be counted on to prove disappointing to the bulls. Anything above 240K (even with all the adjustments and other statistical tools employed), can‘t be expected, and given the most recent JOLTS, I wouldn‘t be surprised by at best a low 200K figure, or more probably by a data point starting with 1xxK.

And given the finally again „bad is bad“ dynamic, it means that S&P 500 is likely to react to the figure risk-off, with a downswing once trading gets underway again (chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).

S&P 500 and Nasdaq

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All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

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