Recession Trades to the Rescue
S&P 500 finally turned south in line with the medium-term outlook, in reaction to the wildly underwhelming JOLTS data. Job market deterioration is finally getting reflected as per the Mar/Apr timeing for issues to arrive that I discussed earlier. Unemployment claims rising and finally non-farm payrolls would come to reflect that.
Today‘s employment change is first such a sign, but all eyes are on Friday‘s non-farm payrolls. The bears are aligning for a pleasant surprise as buy the dippers are bound to get increasingly overpowered. Expect more risk-off in bonds and the surge in precious metals to continue at its own pace higher (my star pick for 2023).
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Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).
Gold, Silver and Miners
Very fine recession reaction – lower yields sending down the dollar as the Fed can‘t remain this restrictive, the market thinking goes. Silver doing well as inflation is undefeated.
Oil is consolidating high ground, and would be far less hurt than copper through the recession jitters. Well, I say jitters, but markets obviously have to overcome the misguided no landing first. In doing so, they may very well start questioning the soft landing too…
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All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
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