One Step Backwards Now
S&P 500 semi reversed yesterday, but the bounce left quite something to be desired. The premarket moves were promising, and unemployment claims behaving (I look for these to start rising later during Mar and Apr) was all that was required for a daily ES outlook resulting in 3,980 break.
Instead, those 211K (essentially my prediction) are being hesitantly taken as if leading to Fed dialing back tightening – nothing can be further from the truth as Powell made clear that the costs of not fighting inflation are greater than those of fighting inflation. No, short-term yields haven‘t yet peaked, and I‘m unmoved by Bank of Canada (often the bellwether as it was among the first CBs to embark on tightening) pausing its hikes.
Stocks are thus facing 4,015 resistance, and I‘m not looking for a bearish day today really. Any fine upper knot on solid volume (approximating Monday) ahead of tomorrow‘s non-farm payrolls (lagging indicator unlike unemployment claims) in S&P 500, is more than welcome today as opposed to dealing with 4,045 again on daily tech and financials joint strength (chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).
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All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
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