That Bostic Move

S&P 500 duly took the bearish unemployment claims message (boom territory around 200K translated into more tightening pressure), and traded well below the key 3,955 level – until the Bostic (no FOMC voter) struck. Some hawkish lines mixed with key allusion of summer hiking pause got the bears scared, ushering in a little short squeeze with power to reach higher still

This risk-on turn is though built on poor foundations, from weak market breadth, bond volume not surging, spurious USD, tech and cyclicals (financials) action that relegate meaningful resolutions to next.week. Suffice to say, I‘m not looking for bullish medium-term result, and continue expecting the 200-day moving average in ES_F to break to the downside.

Worth noting that apart from Sweden and Europe in general, the economic outlook (infation and recession equalling stagflation) keeps progressively darkening – now add in ECB talk of 4% terminal rate (hello BoJ defending 0.5% JGB yield), and upcoming ISM services PMI that won‘t be a scoop, and will instead confirm my notion of US LEIs being still far away from bottoming, i.e. the stock market bear continuing in spite of the positive S&P 500 showing ahead today (as per both progress tweets in one, linked).

I‘m opening today‘s analysis with many more markets covered than the following two charts would indicate, to everyone. Have a great, calm and fullfilling weekend!

Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there (or on Telegram if you prefer), but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.
So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls.

Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).

S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook

S&P 500 and Nasdaq

Prices won’t drop below 3,955 today as the slow grilling of the bears has to continue for a while longer. 3,980 target reached – not even 4,015 (the location of more serious battle) would change the picture. Real estate, manufacturing, earnings and employment would keep getting it, and decreasing liquidity would keep biting. Only below 3,910, the pace of decline quickens – before that, it’s tug of war with different variations of Fed pivot playing out – 3,860s then being the accelerator, but we’re still weeks away from that figure as decent bond market underperformance has to return, especially on the junk bonds side.

Precious Metals, Copper and Oil

gold, silver and miners

That’s three days of promising price action in a row – and the successfully floated Fed dovish turn (mis)perception would only help precious metals. What’s long-term key, is though the metals’ resilience to the USD upswing (around those 20% through to peak), and that’s going to continue even when liquidity is being withdrawn (making for gold to do better than silver).

Copper remains most resilient of the real assets crowd I’m covering, no change since those late 2022 articles trumping the red metal. That goes beyond China credit and economic activity expansion that’s underpinning crude oil even as it has to pause around $78 on totally unconvincing volume yesterday – it’ll be quite a feat to break again above the key $82.50.

Premium content (covered in full within Monica’s Trading Signals) reserved for Monica’s Stock Signals subscribers. Log in to your premium account to read it.
Full scale premium content reserved for Monica’s Trading Signals subscribers. Log in to your premium account to read it.

Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica’s Trading Signals covering all the markets you’re used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica’s Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates.
While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves.
Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!

Thank you,

Monica Kingsley
Stock Trading Signals
Gold Trading Signals
Oil Trading Signals

Copper Trading Signals
Bitcoin Trading Signals


* * * * *

All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Sign Up for Monica’s Insider Club!

It’s free and you’ll get my message right when a new post goes up.

Scroll to Top