Even Higher Terminal
S&P 500 held in the 3,980 – 4,015 range yesterday, namely having defended the 3,980 support, and making it back above 4,015 solidly. The trip towards 4,045 had though been cancelled a bit too abruptly as those believing in Fed‘s no / soft landing fantasies while financial conditions continue inordinately easing in the face of central bank tightening left and right.
Last week‘s PPI and naturally also the calculation changes to CPI, were a mere preview as much as this week‘s data from Sweden. Today‘s core PCE (the measure that the Fed places solid emphasis on) came truly outside the expected range – and that triggers yet another immediate and significant change of market expectations as to the degree of Fed tightening ahead regardless of how pressed the consumer or job market get.
Key chart (courtesy of www.stockcharts.com), universally relevant is bonds (together with the dollar that should close at at least 105.40 today so as to confirm the risk-off shift as likely to continue through Monday on account of the sheer power of newly recognizing perhaps even 50bp in Mar with two more hikes before Jun is over (short end of the curve never lies), and Fed funds rate really closer to 6% than 5.50%, the latter having seemed outrageous as late as only one week ago).
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All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
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