Powell Fears
S&P 500 continued with Friday‘s momentum with barely a consolidation – until Fed‘s Daly spoke. I warned, and the sellers overcame 3,910 eventually. The Fed isn‘t done yet, and Daly didn‘t disappoint (if you remember her earlier appearances).
Aftermarket, I recapped the sectoral view, which doesn‘t paint a conclusive picture for the index, and similarly the bonds. Ultimately, it comes to just how much are the markets willing to doubt and defy the Fed.
As stated yesterday:
(…) Where does that leave us? With more prospects for LEIs moving lower, real estate declines, earnings downgrades and ultimately unemployment increase.
All in the name of fighting inflation, after the transitory debacle I called Apr 2021 vocally. Now, the Fed is to keep tightening into a slowing economy (and ready to overdo it), and its targets of CPI below 5% in 2023 and at 2.5% in 2024, are too rosy.
Apart from the shape of the recession, and how well it would be cushioned by the U.S. consumer (look at confidence, expectations, retail sales, deliquencies etc), the key questions are just how far the Fed would take the Fed funds rate, and how long it wishes to keep it at its own evolving definition of a restrictive level.
Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there (or on Telegram if you prefer), but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.
So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open with notifications on so as not to miss a thing, and to benefit from extra intraday calls.
Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).
S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook

After the 3,895 – 3,910 zone, there comes 3,875 – the level that wouldn‘t arguably mean a return to the long Dec range. Much needs to happen, especially overcoming Powell hawkishness (in due course) next.
Credit Markets

Bonds aren‘t throwing in the towel, and until I see HYG dramatically retreating on solid volume, the SPX bulls aren‘t done.
Gold, Silver and Miners

PMs aren‘t tanking from here – the selling pressure would remain limited and temporary.
Crude Oil

Crude oil stocks are in better shape short-term than the commodity itself. I told you $78-80 would be hard to reconquer.
Copper

Copper remains a bright spot, and the break out of the consolidation preceded by the Oct tremors that I considered fine enough to be bought into, are paying off handsomely. Base and precious metals are those key assets to be in!
Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica’s Trading Signals covering all the markets you’re used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica’s Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates.
While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves.
Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!
Thank you,
Monica Kingsley
Stock Trading Signals
Gold Trading Signals
Oil Trading Signals
Copper Trading Signals
Bitcoin Trading Signals
www.monicakingsley.co
mk@monicakingsley.co
* * * * *
All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Sign Up for Monica’s Insider Club!
It’s free and you’ll get my message right when a new post goes up.