Yields Are Clear
Rocky entry to 2023 in stocks, but the bullish case for a Jan top isn‘t lost in the least. And it would be accompanied by retreat in bond yields, with risk taking stretching to badly beaten and temporarily rebounding tech in what‘s to turn out still as a period of Nasdaq underperformance.
Jan is to bring up strong real assets performance, and it‘s silver with gold and miners leading, copper in between, and crude oil too weak in spite of China covid policies update bearing upon economic activity projections positively.
The key message from slowing inflation data even in Europe, and recent slew of housing, manufacturing and soon to be joined by retail sales, is that recession is practically knocking on the door, and that soft landing had become even more of a tail risk than it used to be. Have a look at M2 growth figures or continued yield curve inversion, not really consistent with an expanding economy. And that‘s precisely what Treasury yields are telling us now.
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Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).
Gold, Silver and Miners
As I wrote in yesterday‘s premium analysis, PMs will be a star outperformer in 2023 – we‘re going up, and silver will lead the charge ($30+ target once the squeeze gets serious, we‘re nowhere there yet). Neither miners nor platinum are asleep at the wheel.
Crude Oil
Crude oil is thus far a 2023 disappointment, reflecting the coming hard landing recognition. I‘m though not writing it off – China is coming back and OPEC+ is ready to defend prices. $74 should hold on a closing basis near term.
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Monica Kingsley
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All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
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