On the Defensive
S&P 500 bulls didn‘t close conclusively while neither bonds nor the dollar pressured them much. Today, the manufacturing data confirmed my earlier point that a manufacturing recession is inevitable following yield curve inversions – so, more deterioration. It‘s though the Fed speakers that are being feared today – the dollar and yields are enjoying a reprieve even though the dollar upswing would prove temporary as I don‘t favor 75bp hike in Dec. The momentum is though with the bears today – risk-off session awaits.
Remember the one wish for yesterday? Markets didn‘t deliver any daily steepening of the yield curve, of the 10-year over 2-year – quite to the contrary.
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Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).
S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook
We didn‘t keep above 3,958, and are unlikely to return there before the week is over – judging by the premarket today. Much depends upon the closing volume and candle shape, upon the degree to which tech is (or isn‘t) able to shake off the pressure today.
Will bonds buy into the hawkish Fed messaging, or will they shake it off by the close of tomorrow? Again, volume would offer a clue as to where this unfolding downswing stops.
Gold, Silver and Miners
We haven‘t seen an important precious metals top – the sector will recover from the risk-off whiff that would extend here too – silver at $21 is cheap, and wouldn‘t suffer the same mid-Oct setback this month, just look how well the miners progressed since.
Oil stocks warrant some short-term caution, but together with crude oil, have better days ahead – returning above $90 before this month is over easily.
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All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
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