More of the Same
S&P 500 closed on declining volume higher yesterday, but bonds weren‘t truly confirming for much of the session. Still, the table was set for the break higher, and I didn‘t hesitate in calling for it even in absence of bond or USD confirmation. Till the closing bell, the bonds chart posture improved somewhat, leaving the stock market upswing more well rounded than it would otherwise have been if you looked only at sectoral strength.
The dollar went down a bit too much, bit too fast yesterday, and even though real assets (with copper bucking the trend today as much as it did yesterday with its close in the red) are modestly down on a less than decent USD upswing. Crypto daily woes remain isolated to the FTX (FTX-Binance) trigger, and are unlikely to spill over into other markets. Precious metals and copper offered a pleasant sight for the bulls, amply justifying my change of tune in the weeks gone by and still to come – note that even gold consolidated on declining volume, proving that there isn‘t much willingness to sell.
As for today‘s S&P 500 levels, 3,815 has to hold as support while 3,848 – 3,855 represents solid resistance that can be reasonably overcome only on a sharp risk-on turn in bonds, which doesn‘t look to get a catalyst during today‘s session. Let‘s see about a possible pleasant surprise – still, the medium-term trend is up, and it‘s only a matter of time (more likely facilitated by Thursday‘s CPI confirming the notion of inflation peak being in, than midterms) before this level gets broken to the upside. This explains today‘s title „More of the Same“ = „Grinding Higher, not a Turnaround Tuesday“.
This run can continue alongside the commodities and precious metals upswings, but the real asset one would prove more durable as in Q1 2023 stocks would look around and ask „based on what have we been rallying“. Crude oil would be comfortably in the triple digits by then…
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All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
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