Weekly Market Recap & Outlook
S&P 500 obliged to the downside as reasonably fine NFPs brought back the justified bets on the Fed hiking yet again by 75bp in Nov, and by 50bp in Dec, which is in line with the Daly and Kashkari consistent utterances. That‘s right, as I told you on Tuesday in the article Fed Turn That Wasn‘t, Evans is still a lone dovish voice no matter the tightening cracks emerging overseas. After the opening bell, the selling pressure picked up, and kept delivering us, reasoned and patient traders, deserved open shorts profits.
That serves as key confirmation of the bears being firmly in the short-term driving seat, of markets not yet even thinking about positioning for Thursday‘s CPI data, which could bring about noticeable relief to both stocks and bonds – possibly in spite of core CPI, which I‘m looking for to come in really, really weak – that‘s an important distinction for future inflation path as e.g. core PCE excludes food and energy (both of which relented lately), and it would preclude the Fed‘s models from pausing the fight against inflation.
Sure, the lagging NFPs indicator brought in signs of internal job market deterioration – look at unemployment rate and participation – but the Fed would keep on tightening nonetheless. And that‘s what markets realized again Friday – long-dated yields are again surging as TLT is back at Sep lows. Hardly a conducive sign for stock market rally – I told you lately that Treasuries (not Treasury yields – sorry for the original typo) need to at least stabilize (if not turn noticeably up) as a precondition for the anticipated Q4 S&P 500 rally – the one that isn‘t here yet.
The purpose of today’s market update is adjust open market positions – yes, based on both the daily candlesticks throughout and weekend cryptos, I’m updating position details without waiting for Monday.
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All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
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