Not So Solid Footing
S&P 500 caught some bid during the regular session only to close in the proximity of daily lows. Neither the outside markets provided much of a relief, let alone reliable signals to go long for a chunky swing trade – bonds traded in a very risk-off mode while the dollar still went parabolic. Even though the daily outlook for today has been up, it‘s hard to see any sustained rally breaking the bearish trend as the environment isn‘t conducive for any steep rally. I‘m calling for only a relatively shallow reprieve playing out mostly in time and within the yesterday given premium level – a reprieve that can‘t compare to the slide experienced last week.
The bouts of risk-on spurred by any dollar retreats (no matter how modest) are likely though to disproportionately power real assets up after their latest beating (think a decent retracement) together with cryptos rather than stocks – and I mean chiefly cyclicals. Oil is to remain the main winner here. The key event to watch remains solid bid materializing in long-dated Treasuries – we aren‘t quite there yet. Summing up, the stock market bear isn‘t over, and I am looking for Jun lows to break, especially on more confirmation that the U.S. can‘t really avoid hard landing.
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All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
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