Game Plan and More Selling
S&P 500 went down, with neither tech nor value leading to the downside – nothing indicative of a bottom nearby. AAPL, GOOG down, and TSLA would soon join them – just as HYG, risk-on is barely clinging by the fingernails as the whole deleveraging is for now concentrated in commodities and precious metals. Concerningly, the OPEC+ move was met with selling yesterday, and the second day of long upper knot in WTIC doesn‘t bode well short-term. The downswing though has been predictably concentrated in natural gas.
If I had to pick just a couple of trades for the whole portfolio, this would be the order of confidence in each. Keeping the eyes on the big picture as shown on the short end of the curve, there is more downswing continuation in stocks and cryptos looming. While I‘m largely absent, keep an eye on the big picture. – I‘m correspondingly adjusting the model portfolio‘s open trade parameters as the dollar hasn‘t yet topped.
I hope you have been enjoying the very lively Twitter feed, which comes on top of getting the key analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses over email are the bedrock. As per Thurday’s legal update that is logically preceded by the Nov 12, 2021 legal update – this is what I vew as a fitting brief summary – I‘ll be back on Sep 19 with my regular level of activity, and as for tomorrow and Friday, I‘ll issue analytical / trading updates only in case of true stunners.
No, I‘m not looking for this week‘s Powell speech or ECB to be one, let alone Tuesday‘s CPI, which I fulyl expect to be mistakenly bought into before the reality of the Fed not stepping back from tightening setting back in. Wednesday‘s PPI would confirm the „inflation has peaked“ point, but the Fed won‘t waver. It has to grapple with the following elements of inflation – raw materials, (semi)finished products, followed by stubborn consumer prices, and crucially wage inflation reflecting the tightness of the labor market and cost of living crisis (holds true especially if you look at Europe). The Fed just can‘t reasonably relent.
The trends are set and in motion, and will get more pronounced as we approach Sep FOMC. What we‘re looking at currently, is „chop“ relatively speaking – you‘ll understand this point on the failed relief rallies to come next week, So much for the extra big picture preps – I‘ll more likely only tweet with a finger on the market pulse this week.
Have a great day!
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All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
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