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Those September Storms

S&P 500 hardly caught a bid on Friday, and the weak showing more than reversed the suspect Thursday‘s rally led by defensives such as healthcare or utilities. The bear market clearly hasn‘t run its course – the immediate willingness to fall following the Nordatream 1 halt news is characteristic of bear market behavior, and I‘m looking for a post Labor Day week in the red. What remains to be seen, is how deep the bears reach – whether the Jun lows would come into jeopardy or not. In other words, whether this downleg coronates the bears, or whether we spend some time going sideways while still well below 4,000. Fundamentals such as earnings, P/E, inflation and monetary tightening coupled with external shocks (summed up in the S&P 500 chart section of Thursday‘s article), favor the bear market to run for quite a while still.

The Sep 75bp hike is indeed baked into the cake as I told you weeks ago – Treasuries are forcing more tightening, and the summer constructive move in yields which had been instrumental in the stock market rally, is clearly over. Rockier times ahead, but real assets haven‘t yet decoupled – the feeble GDX rebound isn‘t yet the true turnover the bulls are eyeing. Crude oil, for all the Iran deal speculation setback, remains better positioned to gradually recapture the $92 – $93 zone (Russia and Saudi Arabia won‘t let prices slide) as non-farm payrolls showed that the U.S. economy isn‘t in a gutter, but is still doing reasonably well. Reasonably well compared to the recession that is still to come later in 2022 / early 2023 – for Europe, of course earlier thanks to the energy situation. The twice inverted yield curve doesn‘t lie, and Fed balance sheet shrinking is kicking into higher gear…

I hope you‘re enjoying the very lively Twitter feed, which comes on top of getting the key analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses over email are the bedrock. Still, the next days would feature generally shorter analyses per yesterday’s legal update. that is logically preceded by the Nov 12, 2021 legal update. This is what I vew as a fitting brief summary.

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All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

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