S&P 500 more than erased Thu‘s decline – buy the dip mentality won, and the advance was that broad-based that it makes sense that I examine the theoretical possibility of a new bull market being born. Short-term, the VIX and VVIX moves point to a serious uptick in volatility ahead – it‘s approaching, but given the strong bond market performance on Friday, not likely to happen at the very start of the week. Given the positive reaction to consumer confidence data coming in above expectations – it wasn‘t that hard to see in the aftermath of the data release – this run in stocks isn‘t yet done, and has the potential to come nearer to the 200-day moving average, currently at 4,328.
The moving average itself is though sloping downwards, which puts extra pressure on this run. Neither Nasdaq has conquerred its own 200-day moving average, so far just value stocks and Russell 2000 did. What are though the prospects for the broad rally to continue? All right, we closed above the 50% retracement from the Jun bottom, but was this the final bottom or is there more to the bear market still, enough to force a 10-15% decline from here?
Those are the provocative questions. Monday’s extensive analysis will feature more than my best answers – it’ll be about the examination of stock market drivers’ prospects, fundamentals beyond monetary policy, real economy trajectory, yields, energy and other possible exogenous shocks. I’ll also talk the changing gears of the real assets performance in the months ahead.
Stay tuned for Monday’s extensive analysis, and have a nice rest of the weekend.
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All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
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