HOME » STOCK TRADING SIGNALS » Bull Trap Ready

Bull Trap Ready

S&P 500 bearish overtures were refused, bonds remained optically risk-on and strong, but the true picture reflects a daily stall. Refusal to drive prices higher in the absence of convincing, credibly strong NFPs. I have a hunch that a careful look under the hood would reveal some signs of weakness in the job market, the way hours worked last time did. While the Fed isn‘t drumming this point really as tightening would come at the expense of unemployment rate, because wage inflation needs to be broken down as well in order to get overall inflation under control. Some officials such as Kashkari aren‘t hiding the fact it would take several years to achieve the 2% goal again.

Let‘s have a look at yesterday‘s Bank of England moves, kind of foreshadowing what‘s reasonable to expect from the Fed. In the UK, the prospect of entering recession Q4 2022 amd remaining in it for more than a couple of quarters, is being acknowledged. The central bank though intends to keep tightening anyway, preferring to take on inflation after it ran out of control longer they publicly anticipated. Meanwhile in the States, unemployment claims have edged higher – indicative of growing softness in the labor market.

Long-dated Treasuries continue rising as is appropriate in these conditions of economic slowdown slowly gathering pace. Similarly to inflation expectations, they‘re not yet taking the Fed‘s hawkish rhetoric absolutely seriously unlike commodity prices that are at best carving out a bullish divergence (still in the making, therefore without implications yet). Precious metals appear farther along the route of acknowledging the upcoming stagflationary reality as I continue looking for inflation to remain in the stubbornly high 5-6% range no matter the Fed‘s actions over the next 3 FOMC meetings at least. Obviously, the hotter the underlying markets, the more tightening has to be done, and that‘s extra headwind for the markets, and one making the Fed pivot a bit more elusive.

To feel the daily pulse, let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of Stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones, which I’m exceptionally unlocking today in full so that you can get a better idea about the care (plus trade calls and intraday updates) premium subscribers regularly get.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook

S&P 500 and Nasdaq

S&P 500 underwent a daily consolidation, preparing for a spike that should be sold into. The bull trap is almost complete with VIX pushing to 21 – the degree of the overshoot is what matters.

Credit Markets

HYG, LQD and TLT

HYG is going to attract a sell in the not too distant future. Its upswing isn‘t accompanied by corresponding rise in cyclicals, in risk-on sectors – there is still much defensive / slow growth driven flavor about the stock market rally.

Gold, Silver and Miners

gold, silver and copper

Precious metals turned strongly up yesterday, but not yet absolutely decisively – there was some upper knot, and the volume could be higher too. Positive day in need of quite some follow through.

Crude Oil

crude oil

Crude oil weakness is getting the bulls worried, and I‘m leaning towards the $88 support slowly giving way as $85 approach comes next. Longs are suitable only for medium-term investors.

Copper

copper

Copper is holding up, but should another setback strike commodities, the red metal wouldn‘t escape unscathed. Short-term, the move in base metals is positive but it‘s too early to say whether that can survive the autumn storms.

Bitcoin and Ethereum

Bitcoin and Ethereum

Cryptos are expecting a good outcome today – this is where the earliest signs of disappointment and peak would be found.

Premium content (covered in full within Monica’s Trading Signals) reserved for Monica’s Stock Signals subscribers. Log in to your premium account to read it.
Full scale premium content reserved for Monica’s Trading Signals subscribers. Log in to your premium account to read it.

Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of the premium Monica’s Trading Signals covering all the markets you’re used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the premium Monica’s Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates. While at my homesite, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves. Thanks for subscribing & all your support that makes this endeavor possible!

Thank you,

Monica Kingsley
Stock Trading Signals
Gold Trading Signals
Oil Trading Signals

Copper Trading Signals
Bitcoin Trading Signals

www.monicakingsley.co
mk@monicakingsley.co

* * * * *

All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Sign Up for Monica’s Insider Club!

It’s free and you’ll get my message right when a new post goes up.

Leave a Comment

You have to agree to the comment policy.

Scroll to Top