S&P 500 reached my initial target of 3,940, and turned out indeed slated for premarket consolidation today. No signs of daily weakness either in tech or value – market breadth is improving. The bottom isn‘t yet in as the washout is still ahead – yes, we‘re still in a larger bear market, and the fundamental dynamics of Fed‘s options to fight inflation while the U.S. is still set to avoid recession in the traditional sense of the word, is setting tone. The weakness in consumer sentiment hasn‘t yet translated into declining retail sales, and the July reprieve at the pump (oil prices serve as a shadow Fed funds rate), would go a long way in helping the Fed regain some of the inflation fighter luster lost. More thoughts beyond this immediate stock market are reserved for premium subscribers.
Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of Stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article features good 6 ones.
Gold and Silver
Precious metals haven‘t taken the dollar‘s cue, and that spells more short-term trouble. Not even volume is coming back to gold really. Miners to gold ratio is at least going sideways already – we have quite a few more weeks of tested patience and pain in the metals before the new upleg starts developing.
Crude oil is rising very modestly, and needs more days backing and filling before conquering $105 again. The volume continues favoring the bulls – this week would be good.
Copper is turning around only in the short-term. The red metal would participate in the risk-on upswing unfolding, but underperform – it‘s still vulnerable to a takedown.
Bitcoin and Ethereum
Cryptos aren‘t looking bad at all today – probably the key sign is that Bitcoin or Ethereum aren‘t declining. This is another chart (similarly to stocks and bonds) looking for fresh buyers so that the upswing can continue a little longer.
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All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
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