Opening Salvo

S&P 500 really reversed and scored quite some gains on risk-on turn in bonds. It‘s the quality debt instruments that are leading (yes, there was significant selling into TLT strength Friday though), and can be expected to go on leading as manufacturing data is approaching the recession territory. That‘s what I told you weeks ago that we aren‘t going to evade, and that the Fed won‘t yet pivot (far from it) – inflation is not nearly enough under control even though inflation expectations and inflation trades (those benefiting from an economy that isn‘t souring – that‘s copper and silver) are turning down. It‘s gold and miners that can be counted on to show relative resilience (which is what happened during Friday‘s session) in the face of the trouble revealing USD – and of course crude oil as well, having closed right at my support level of $108.50. Natural gas and badly beaten agrifoods (wheat, corn, soybeans) would return to growth somewhat later on. Treasuries are giving the benefit of the doubt to the very fleeting short-term stock market rally, even though more pain appears to be still ahead – get ready for it to be challenged fast. The deleveraging and liquidity squeezing bias is on.

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Monica Kingsley
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All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

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