S&P 500 likely put in a short-term bottom, and the fresh long position is profitable from the get-go. Bonds offered the first promising signs, and so far only value has acted upon it – that provides more fuel to the upcoming relief rally. TLT performance was good, but seeing even higher volume would be more convincing regarding the rally‘s longevity. Especially since the dollar is rising again – the yen carry trade can go on. Even cryptos are having a good day today so far, meaning we have a bit more to run still.
That bodes well for real assets too – both gold and silver caught a solid bid yesterday, and GDX lagging behind is balanced out by NEM outperforming. The precious metals skies are slowly brightening, and not even another 75bp hike looks being able to sink them. Deteriorating real economy data would underpin them more so than crude oil. All the demand destruction isn‘t yet in, and black gold would adjust to the arriving economy growth softpatch – but we haven‘t seen the spike yet. Anyway, it‘s worthwhile to tread cautiously with the whole portfolio because the tightening phase, the pressure on the Fed isn‘t relenting all that much. The greater shock would come from having to adjust the still overly rosy economic growth projections to the downside over the nearest months. That‘s keeping a lid on copper and base metals, which would have a chance of turning around only after gold truly obviously to everyone does.
Let‘s get into the key charts (all courtesy of Stockcharts.com) for today – stocks:
and crude oil:
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All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
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