False Dawn

In bonds, that is – what could have been a TLT low a week ago, is slowly turning out as a dud. S&P 500 was disregarding that, and Thursday‘s upside reversal continued through yesterday. The soothing Powell geo-comments certainly helped in erasing the early regular session‘s downswing, but still the rally off the psychological 20% (off the ATHs) mark, is getting challenged, and didn‘t take much of an advantage of the USD decline that I telegraphed well ahead as likely to happen. Looking at a different angle of Powell‘s remarks (not the geopolitics one, but the inflation one), it‘s going to be hard to square the intention to see inflation convincingly coming down with the notion that Thursday‘s lows were the final lows in the stock market. As I had been saying for months, we have lower to go, and the early July major bottom is still my leading scenario. Thus, the very short-term bias is down.

Precious metals look to have indeed turned the corner, but the unconvincing performance yesterday is a testament of more time needed for an upswing to develop. While the dollar has eased the pressure (that‘s quite visible in copper and other commodities), yields still haven‘t. Overall, it‘s a good sign that real assets continue waking up, and nowhere that would continue proving more true than in crude oil and natural gas. Throw in some poor real economy incoming data as a surprise next, and they‘re off to the (daily and more) races again.

There won’t be a regular analysis featuring charts or Twitter activities today, but I’m keeping a close eye on the markets and will issue a sound commentary whenever required by the markets on my watch.

Thank you for your patience.

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Thank you,

Monica Kingsley
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All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

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