The Fed Day
Not too much has happened since the intraday update – the 4,190 level in S&P 500 proved once again an obstacle, and the FOMC later today is likely to be perceived as a surprise on the bearish side. Whatever hesitation in Treasuries there has been, would be superseded by the renewed selling as the Fed follows the market pressure of rising yields. Even mere 50bp rate hike with sufficiently long projections of upcoming hikes of the same magnitude coupled with appropriate language, would do the trick – the market is discounting that already.
And that means more pressure on asset prices, especially in the paper realm (equities and bonds). Out of commodities, energy is of course best positioned, and would be least affected by the slowing real economy environment. Precious metals need to be led higher by miners, and the upswing resumption would be most demanding on patience especially in silver and copper. Nothing has changed in Monday‘s thoughts on how to ride this tightening cycle. In case of a true Fed surprise later today, expect to hear from me again – but so far, not even the opening 1+ hour has brought any changes to the outlook.
There won’t be a regular analysis featuring charts or Twitter activities today, but I’m keeping a close eye on the markets and will issue a sound commentary whenever required by the markets on my watch.
Thank you for your patience.
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All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
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