Little Risk-On Turn

S&P 500 rose on the whiff of credit markets turning up – while the HYG upswing held, TLT gave up most of the gained ground. Tech still managed to rise nicely on the day, on par with value, which is though leaving stocks a little exposed. Would another rotation, into value, help drive the 500-strong index higher? Unless HYG price gains make up for yesterday‘s lower volume, the advance is unlikely to be sustained – the daily dollar weakness was its temporarily contributing factor. In short, the bears have the upper hand, and the only question is whether the 4,470 – 4,480 zone stops the advance. So far so good – I remain bearish.

Cryptos are confirming today‘s cautious tone as neither precious metals nor commodities did extremely well. Put more precisely, the silver outperformance is a warning sign for today even though miners continue rising, and the CRB Index does pretty well overall. The lion‘s share rests with the good crude oil showing coupled with well bid base metals and agrifoods. Still, real assets may turn lower today if the paper asset upswing continues – and odds are the stock market bulls would try. The medium-term picture remains unchanged though – the stock market bear hasn‘t run its course (early July bottom?) and precious metals with commodities are readying another upleg.

I apologize that today‘s analysis couldn‘t have reached you earlier – through events beyond my control. Large scale power outage taking out the whole district…

There won’t be a regular analysis featuring charts or Twitter activities today either, but I’m keeping a close eye on the markets and will issue a sound commentary whenever required by the markets on my watch.

Thank you for your patience.

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Thank you,

Monica Kingsley
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All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

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