In the Driver‘s Seat
S&P 500 swang higher following the Fed minutes, but little has changed – merely a glance at credit markets tells me that stocks are likely to continue moving down. Still, a discounted entry point was provided, and open short profits can grow. Just see how fast HYG was beaten back as bonds continue doing the tightening for the Fed (10-year yield is now at 2.61%) – tech is to continue being under pressure to a greater degree than value. Check cryptos for clues as to the sentiment, if in doubt. Meanwhile, the calls for ridiculously low prices ranging from crude oil to gold and silver, continue unabated, defying the fact that commodities (CRB Index) gave up less than a third of its March gains. Hint – it‘s not about the dollar.
In other words, real assets are only consolidating here, and the Fed still being behind the bond market imposed tightening, won‘t dramatically influence inflation. Now, a recession, that would be a game changer for runaway price moves, that‘s for sure. To conclude, we haven‘t seen yet the commodities top – let alone the local one. Precious metals are slowly getting in the mood to rise somewhat again, and miners agree as much as XLE does, therefore I‘m disregarding the bearish message yesterday‘s crude oil downswing sent. Similarly copper looks well bid above $4.70, and the risks to the upside are incomparably higher than those to the downside. Just as everywhere in real assets.
There won’t be a regular analysis featuring charts or Twitter activities this week either, but I’m keeping a close eye on the markets and will issue a sound commentary whenever required by the markets on my watch.
Returning next week!
Thank you for your patience.
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All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
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