Thriving on Hawkish Fed
S&P 500 upswing was rejected – the intraday comeback didn‘t succeed. Risk-off posture won the day, and the dust is settling. Day 4-5 of the rally‘s window of opportunity that I talked on Monday, is proving as a milestone. Hot CPI data has increased the bets on Mar 50bp rate hike to a virtual certainty, and asset prices didn‘t like that. Not just stocks across the board, but commodities likewise (to a modest degree only) gave up intraday gains, turning a little red. Cryptos too ended down – it had been a good decision to cash in solid open long profits in S&P 500, oil and copper. Fresh portfolio highs reached over this 12+ months period (details on my homepage):
What‘s the game plan for today? As the dollar closed flat while yields rose, I‘m not ruling out a reflexive intraday rebound attempt – after all, the bears should rule in the 2nd half of Feb most clearly. As time passes, the rips would be sold into unless bonds and tech can catch a solid bid. With focus on inflation, that‘s unlikely.
Medium-term S&P 500 bias continues being short while commodity dips are to be cautiously bought. Crude oil looks to need to spend a bit more time around $90 while copper defending the low $4.50 is equally important. While silver didn‘t rise by nearly as much as the red metal did, it is down approximately as much in today‘s premarket – the white metal would recover on a less headline heavy day. Remember that PMs are trading sideways to up, with decreasing sensitivity to rising 10-year yield, and have done historically well when rate hikes finally start.
Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).
S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook
S&P 500 momentum has sharply shifted to the downside, and today‘s recovery attempts are likely to be sold into. I‘m keeping a keen eye on bonds, tech and risk-on in general – not expecting miracles.
HYG keeps showing the way, resolutely down as of yesterday. With rising yields not propelling even financials, the bears have returned a few days earlier than they could – in a show of strength.
Gold, Silver and Miners
Miners issued a warning to gold and silver – yesterday brought a classic short-term top sign. I‘m though not ascribing great significance to it, for it isnt‘a turning point. Gold would be relatively unmoved while silver recovers however deep setback it suffers today.
Crude oil appears to need more time to base – while the upside is being rejected for now, the selling attempts aren‘t materializing at all. Higher volume adds to short-term indecision, but strong (long) hands are to win.
Copper is running into selling pressure, and looks in need of consolidation in order to overcome $4.60. The red metal remains true to its reputation for volatility.
Bitcoin and Ethereum
Cryptos are taking their time, and the bulls need to act. Given that volume isn‘t disappearing, the bears have a short-term advantage.
S&P 500 looks to be getting under pressure soon again, today. There is no support from bonds, unless these stage an intraday risk-on reversal. The momentum is with the sellers, and rips are likely to be sold as markets digest yet more hawkish Fed action slated for March. Digest and slated are the key words – the Fed‘s hand is being forced here. Commodities and precious metals are likely to do best in what‘s coming – the 5-10 day window of bullish S&P 500 price action, is slowly closing down.
Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full here at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club, which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.
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All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
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