Stock Trading Signals
- Comprehensive daily S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 analyses and trade calls by Monica Kingsley.
- Intraday updates whenever market action demands so.
- Sectoral, intermarket and technical analysis with plenty of macroeconomics
- Timely, insightful and practical to the bone.
- Published around the U.S. open.
Jun 07, 2023 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Trading Signals and Monica’s Stock Signals subscribers.
Jun 07, 2023 – ES to Surge Above 4,300 – S&P 500 followed up my projected path yesterday – dip soon bought, then chop and up, ignoring bearish macro data. GS assigning lower… MORE>>
Jun 06, 2023 – Readying for Hawkish Fed – S&P 500 made two runs over 4,300, yet was rejected in each. Bonds though didn‘t paint universally negative picture – only the sectoral… MORE>>
Jun 04, 2023 – Stocks To Still Extend Upswing – S&P 500 quickly dipped on NFPs, and was eagerly soon bought. Even 4,283 where I expected some resistance, didn‘t last too long. Best of all,… MORE>>
Jun 02, 2023 – ES Rebound to Continue – S&P 500 bears made good progress initially as yesterday‘s data confirmed the hawkish Fed takeaway – yet my bond targets… MORE>>
Jun 01, 2023 – Defensively Suspect ES Rebound – S&P 500 acted on Tue‘s tech internals clue, and its decline into the opening bell and early session was stopped by tech market… MORE>>
May 31, 2023 – Daily ES Bearish Upper Hand – S&P 500 was complacent yesterday given VIX only at 18, but the key turn happened in tech, in the waning NDX market breadth. No rush to… MORE>>
May 30, 2023 – No Selling the Deal? – Debt ceiling tentative agreement optimism continued into Memorial Day, and S&P 500 opened the Globex session with a bullish gap, which… MORE>>
May 28, 2023 – Higher, Still Higher – S&P 500 is reaching for fresh yearly highs, but this isn‘t accompanied by improvements in market breadth – neither stark nor subtle. If anything,… MORE>>
May 26, 2023 – Hot, Hot Inflation – First 4,136 served as S&P 500 support, then 4,154 – stocks disregarded weak bond market posture, and half of the intraday progress in driving… MORE>>
May 25, 2023 – ES Back in the Range – For Now – S&P 500 tumbled right through my 4,154 support, reaching all the way to another key milestone of 4,115. Heavy selling across the board, and… MORE>>
May 24, 2023 – Fine Selling Initiative – S&P 500 buyers weren‘t really present yesterday, and the session finally finished on a strong, one-sided bearish note with all four conditions of mine… MORE>>
May 23, 2023 – ES Correction Starts – S&P 500 rejected further upside, and is ready for correction within this upswing – the correction characteristics would determine the path forward as… MORE>>
May 21, 2023 – Breakout Consolidation – S&P 500 breakout or fakeout? I was in favor of breakout and its retest Friday. Not even debt ceiling resolution stumble or Powell talking about… MORE>>
May 19, 2023 – Breakout Or Fakeout – S&P 500 recovered from the opening setback reasonably fast, and had reached 4,188 before getting rejected. Temporarily rejected, and soon… MORE>>
May 18, 2023 – Gentle Snap Or Slap – S&P 500 put up only very limited resistance at 4,136, and it became clear early in the regular session that bears would be absent. Initially, HYG and XLI… MORE>>
May 17, 2023 – Snapping Back Gently – S&P 500 flirted with 4,115 again after that great intraday HYG reversal portended downside volatility when cyclicals didn‘t really… MORE>>
May 16, 2023 – Retail vs. Stocks – S&P 500 downswing refusal would prove temporary, and the pinched consumer retail sales data will keep serving as recessionary reminder. MORE>>
May 15, 2023 – Starting To Crack – S&P 500 fulfilled my overnight target of 4,149 at least, and had been having issues extending gains before the manufacturing data release. MORE>>
May 14, 2023 – More Reprieve Time – S&P 500 refused to decline below strong 4,115 support, and market breadth nuances together with crypto indicate that the buyers are to build on… MORE>>
May 12, 2023 – More SPX Reprieve – S&P 500 clear bearish progress didn‘t last in spite of PACW woes being as indicative of unsolved banking situation as the increased Fed loans to… MORE>>
May 11, 2023 – PACW, JPM and ES – S&P 500 with yields gyrated wildly on celebrating CPI and ignoring sticky core CPI yesterday, and the buyers won in the end as my four conditions… MORE>>
May 10, 2023 – Squeezing Powell – S&P 500 and especially bonds closed on a cautious basis yesterday, clearly positioned for a hawkish surprise in the run up to the CPI… MORE>>
May 09, 2023 – CPI Game Plan – S&P 500 day of indecision lends more support to the bearish case, and the sellers are likely to appear with more force and somewhat better… MORE>>
May 08, 2023 – Weaker Than Before – S&P 500 took advantage of Thursday‘s technicals, rode AAPL coattails, and shook off positive NFPs while ignoring prior one‘s downward revision. MORE>>
May 05, 2023 – FOMO Dip Buying – S&P 500 continued the real FOMC move, which points down as befits tightening into slowing economy on simultaneous proclamations of strong banks. MORE>>
May 04, 2023 – Let That Sink In – S&P 500 followed my path into the FOMC announcement (spike) and conference (ultimately selloff), no matter how opaque the statements had been up till… MORE>>
May 03, 2023 – Hawkish Surprise – S&P 500 suffered on more bad banking news, but the bears couldn‘t keep the selling going – I correctly didn‘t trust bonds to send ES through 4,115. MORE>>
May 02, 2023 – Fed Ambush – S&P 500 short squeeze attempt ran into a brick wall in the second half of the regular session as narrow market leadership took its toll on the high betas… MORE>>
Apr 30, 2023 – Way Too Narrow – S&P 500 continued the short squeeze, more than vindicating my call for no setback Friday. Market breadth and internal strength isn‘t though… MORE>>
Apr 28, 2023 – Squeeze Into AMZN – S&P 500 daily bullish call worked better than expected, and the road from META till AMZN earnings was indeed free from… MORE>>
Apr 27, 2023 – META and Dip Buying – S&P 500 bears followed through during much of yesterday‘s session – and bonds broadly supported that downswing. Good META earnings completed the intraday… MORE>>
Apr 26, 2023 – Back to Banking and Consumer – S&P 500 bears finally did a good job – FRC deposits situation, fresh manufacturing and consumer confidence worked magic. Bonds broadly agreed, and the risk-off day… MORE>>
Apr 25, 2023 – Risk-off Approaching – Monday, S&P 500 bulls managed to come back twice intraday, but I‘m afraid they‘re scraping the barrel. Tech earnings are ahead, UBS negatively surprised… MORE>>
Apr 24, 2023 – No Fear Recession – S&P 500 bears lost gained ground early in the Friday‘s session – the false dawn in manufacturing (and services) PMIs (similar to real estate) didn‘t spur enough… MORE>>
Apr 21, 2023 – ISM Liquidity Bets – This time, S&P 500 bears couldn‘t close the bearish opening gap, and on deteriorating market breadth hitting tech and value alike, ES closed at my… MORE>>
Apr 20, 2023 – Follow Through Time – Bearish gap that S&P 500 buyers couldn‘t close, and worrying market breadth – such are the characteristics of going into the first and second key data release… MORE>>
Apr 19, 2023 – First Swallow – For all the narrow range day, S&P 500 bears look to be waking up – in conjuction with USD. Highlighted by Russell 2000, to be confirmed by real assets today as much as… MORE>>
Apr 18, 2023 – Sucking in Buyers – S&P 500 bears missed a good intraday opportunity after winning for 6 hrs in the regular session. For all the market breadth limping along, it was Russell 2000,… MORE>>
Apr 17, 2023 – Inflation, Recession, the Fed – S&P 500 bears had three good reasons to force a close lower – high consumer inflation expectations, weak retail sales and Waller saying that… MORE>>
Apr 14, 2023 – Banking vs. Recession – S&P 500 celebrated both the low PPI and CPI headline lately, chose not to focus on core data (key metric for the Fed), and reacted with a temporary… MORE>>
Apr 13, 2023 – PPI vs. Fed – S&P 500 celebrated the tame CPI figure, and Fed minutes mentioning (risks of, thanks to banking) recession in 2H 2023, took care of the rest. MORE>>
Apr 12, 2023 – CPI Fireworks Told You – S&P 500 consolidated, but markets still favored bullish resolution to today‘s CPI, which I told you about with plenty of advance warning – be it Sunday or today… MORE>>
Apr 11, 2023 – CPI Fireworks Ahead – S&P 500 buyers stepped in quite early indeed – no surprise as the sell into the open couldn‘t yet have lasted. Even the battle around intraday lows… MORE>>
Apr 09, 2023 – Why More SPX Upside – S&P 500 bulls are likely to do fine early next week, no matter the gathering technical and macroeconomic clouds. Take Friday‘s NFPs that… MORE>>
Apr 07, 2023 – NFPs Expectations – S&P 500 bears missed a good opportunity Friday, and for all the anticipated deterioration in unemployment claims, couldn‘t… MORE>>
Apr 06, 2023 – Job Market Spark – S&P 500 bears didn‘t disappoint yesterday, remaining in control as the focus shifts to recession signs. Both ISM services PMI and non-farm… MORE>>
Apr 05, 2023 – Recession Trades to the Rescue – S&P 500 finally turned south in line with the medium-term outlook, in reaction to the wildly underwhelming JOLTS data. Job market deterioration… MORE>>
Apr 04, 2023 – Grinding Up, Grinding Still – S&P 500 proved key point of yesterday‘s extensive analysis – the buyers still have higher to go but the key resistance is approaching. After quite a… MORE>>
Apr 02, 2023 – Quarter End Or More – S&P 500 completed the third day of bullish calls, and didn‘t create many non-confirmations on the way to the 4,130s. While market breadth is still concerning,… MORE>>
Mar 31, 2023 – That Slow Grind – S&P 500 continued extending gains no matter the sectoral non-confirmations – the momentum from bonds had been enough as telegraphed both in… MORE>>
Mar 30, 2023 – Less Suspect Grind – S&P 500 bears proved they hold shorter end of the stick, just like I warned early in the European session yesterday, and my aftermarket conclusions… MORE>>
Mar 29, 2023 – Suspect Grind – S&P 500 bears missed a good opportunity, and couldn‘t keep pressuring even only NDX. While banking is getting less in the headlines, it isn‘t… MORE>>
Mar 28, 2023 – Second Thoughts – S&P 500 had just one bullish ally, Russell 2000 – and that‘s not enough. The dust in financials hasn‘t yet settled, and Treasury yields are likely to… MORE>>
Mar 27, 2023 – Cuts Aren‘t Bullish – S&P 500 reversed, but the upswing teemed with non-confirmations and oddities, the common denominator being strong market pressure on Powell to give up… MORE>>
Mar 24, 2023 – Correct Positioning – S&P 500 hesitation was all too palpable yesterday – with a distinctly bearish bias. Yes, I‘m looking at the Nasdaq run going overboard while financials keep… MORE>>
Mar 23, 2023 – Doubting ot Not – S&P 500 took it on the chin as Powell didn‘t chicken out. Yeah, he indeed delivered as I said he has no other realistic choice really. Of course, the banking stocks… MORE>>
Mar 22, 2023 – Powell to Deliver – &P 500 really did run higher regardless of further FRC and KRE weakness outdoing XLF, which instead turned up. Quoting yesterday‘s premium… MORE>>
Mar 21, 2023 – Precious Metals Are Clear – S&P 500 ran with CS relief that had something for both bail-out and bail-in proponents, disregarding further KRE weakness outdoing XLF, as… MORE>>
Mar 19, 2023 – Banking Game of Chicken – S&P 500 didn‘t maintain premarket momentum as fresh banking doubts resurfaced, pulling down cyclicals. It wasn‘t though a full-blown panic as… MORE>>
Mar 17, 2023 – The Squeeze – S&P 500 shook off both unemployment claims below expectations and 50bp ECB hike, and the formerly disastrous market breadth got a thorough revamp,… MORE>>
Mar 16, 2023 – Turning Heat On – S&P 500 stabilized, but in an unconvincing way – the market breadth and sectoral view was wholy unappealing to me. Expecting risk-off… MORE>>
Mar 15, 2023 – Recession Trades – S&P 500 celebrated inflation data coming in line with expectations yesterday, but the joy proved preditably short-lived as the realization that Fed would still not… MORE>>
Mar 14, 2023 – It‘s Just Liquidity – S&P 500 enjoyed a wild ride yesterday that subscribers did capitalize on intraday, and the key move was in the bond markets as these started requesting… MORE>>
Mar 13, 2023 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Trading Signals and Monica’s Stock Signals subscribers.
Mar 13, 2023 – Head Over Heels – S&P 500 gave up the two opening rebounds as the SVIB meeting FDIC – and the contagion fears – hit, forcing a very sharp reversal in short-term yields, with… MORE>>
Mar 10, 2023 – Gift That Keeps Giving – S&P 500 not only refused to rally, but crashed on high volume driven by banking sector (news and regional banks). Even some tech names ripe for… MORE>>
Mar 09, 2023 – One Step Backwards Now – S&P 500 semi reversed yesterday, but the bounce left quite something to be desired. The premarket moves were promising, and unemployment… MORE>>
Mar 08, 2023 – Another Hawkish Win – S&P 500 duly dived on hawkish Powell – the turning point predicted in Monday‘s extensive analysis. What‘s in store for today? MORE>>
Mar 07, 2023 – Powell Speaking – S&P 500 offered a fine session to those looking for the daily advance to be dialed back. We‘ve seen another weak push higher premarket.that still… MORE>>
Mar 06, 2023 – Stocks Game Plan Till FOMC – S&P 500 dealt with the many non-confirmations raising eyebrows, and the bulls can and do enter new week on a stronger than expected note… MORE>>
Mar 05, 2023 – Weekly Market Recap & Outlook – S&P 500 dealt with the many non-confirmations raising eyebrows, and the bulls can enter new week on a stronger than expected note. MORE>>
Mar 03, 2023 – That Bostic Move – S&P 500 duly took the bearish unemployment claims message (boom territory around 200K translated into more tightening pressure), and traded… MORE>>
Mar 02, 2023 – Once Again Fine – S&P 500 refused yet another intraday rebound attempt, and closed around my 3,955 level, which would be broken through on a closing basis today. MORE>>
Mar 01, 2023 – Traps, More Traps – S&P 500 just couldn‘t keep its head above water, and those rips were sold before the close, opening the door to my key 3,980 level. And that was… MORE>>
Feb 28, 2023 – The Countdown – S&P 500 formed a fine bull trap – the intraday reversal making selling into worthwhile. How about today, given that bonds didn‘t exactly crater into Monday‘s close? MORE>>
Feb 27, 2023 – Recession Anatomy – S&P 500 declined on strong core PCE data, but I doubted the opening gloom, and favored a positive move during the regular session. In spite of the… MORE>>
Feb 24, 2023 – Even Higher Terminal – S&P 500 held in the 3,980 – 4,015 range yesterday, namely having defended the 3,980 support, and making it back above 4,015 solidly. The trip towards 4,045 had though… MORE>>
Feb 23, 2023 – Fighting the Fed – S&P 500 couldn‘t convincingly break below 4,015 and reach first 3,980s and then towards 3,965. Fed minutes merely reinforced the tighening ideas amid… MORE>>
Feb 22, 2023 – Breaking Key Support – S&P 500 continued non-stop to the downside – the little dead cat bounce didn‘t last. Unless HYG… MORE>>
Feb 21, 2023 – Fuse Has Been Lit – S&P 500 didn‘t surprise, and delivered the dead cat bounce that I was looking for at the onset of Friday. MORE>>
Feb 17, 2023 – Fed and Rates – S&P 500 did marvellously slide on poor PPI data reinforcing my so frequently raised sticky inflation making a return. For all the goods inflation retreat, the… MORE>>
Feb 16, 2023 – Stagflation, Finally – S&P 500 rally yesterday was totally unconvincing, and allowed for most opportune short positions initiation. Combined with my increasingly bearish calls for… MORE>>
Feb 15, 2023 – Hawkish Realization, Finally – S&P 500 did manage with a spike, even on CPI slightly above expectations. My 4,187 resistance wasn‘t though overcome, not even temporarily… MORE>>
Feb 14, 2023 – That CPI Spike – S&P 500 showed promising intraday performance, but the posture somewhat deteriorated before the close as evaporating risk-on posture in bonds got into spotlight. MORE>>
Feb 13, 2023 – CPI Game Plan – S&P 500 partially recovered from Thursday‘s setback, but the bulls didn‘t get back to the driver‘s seat. Market breadth improved though sufficiently, and… MORE>>
Feb 10, 2023 – The Flip – S&P 500 didn‘t take well to the dual Swiss (SNB and CS) news with respect to the still too easy financial conditions, regardless of the Fed‘s tightening… MORE>>
Feb 09, 2023 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Trading Signals and Monica’s Stock Signals subscribers.
Feb 09, 2023 – Breaking the Range – S&P 500 corrective move indeed ruled yesterday, but no important support was breached on a closing basis. While market breadth is nothing to… MORE>>
Feb 08, 2023 – Trend Still Up – Powell delivered, and didn‘t trip the bulls – S&P 500 merely tried to shake out the weak hands, but you were ready through my habitual live coverage… MORE>>
Feb 07, 2023 – Second FOMC – S&P 500 refused further decline, but picture is far from impending rebound strength. One though can‘t get rid of the impression from Kashkari‘s speech… MORE>>
Feb 06, 2023 – Soft Landing, Really? – S&P 500 started a brief correction on NFPs outdoing expectations, with other data confirming job market tightness as much as Dec NFPs upward revision to 260K. MORE>>
Feb 03, 2023 – Welcome, Correction – S&P 500 continued higher on very good market breadth and with bond market support, but already yesterday I announced I was looking for a NFPs facilitated setback… MORE>>
Feb 02, 2023 – The Bonds Challenge – FOMC with S&P 500 turned out precisely as I looked it to, and not even another widely anticipated move (50bp by ECB today), could dampen… MORE>>
Feb 01, 2023 – Hawkish Or Not – S&P 500 perfomed to the bulls‘ liking most definitely as is apparent from today‘s rich chart section. While I‘m looking for an eventual bullish resolution to today‘s FOMC, my medium-term view is… MORE>>
Jan 31, 2023 – Wake Up Call – S&P 500 did a fakeout yesterday, and closed on a weak note. Nothing sectorally enouraging, and even the mere comparison of Russell 2000 to emerging markets… MORE>>
Jan 30, 2023 – FOMO Rules – S&P 500 barely stopped, and the broad based rally continued… till the final hour. Was that the reversal? Unlikely! On Wednesday, I discussed what I‘m… MORE>>
Jan 27, 2023 – Big Week Ahead – S&P 500 charge higher continued, and high beta plays didn‘t disappoint. Energy, financials, Russell 2000, emerging markets – all on fire. After… MORE>>
Jan 26, 2023 – No Rocking the Boat – S&P 500 defended my 3,955 level by stopping full 10 pts above it, and turning up swiftly. The rise was accompanied by good breadth, and ducks lined… MORE>>
Jan 25, 2023 – More Defence – S&P 500 barely managed to close where it did the day before, and decreasing volume points at little short-term willingness to push prices up. MORE>>
Jan 24, 2023 – Slow But Not Slow – S&P 500 bulls need to play good defence now as 4,040 predictably stopped the rally yesterday. The retreat in junk corporate bonds with cyclicals should… MORE>>
Jan 23, 2023 – Smelling Fine Opportunity – S&P 500 buers had a good Friday, and market breadth confirms that beond cyclicals leading over defensives. Even if bonds are relatively… MORE>>
Jan 20, 2023 – Bulls Waking Up – Some S&P 500 buying emerged finally, and not even NFLX earnings ushered in a significant move either way. This summary of four key… MORE>>
Jan 19, 2023 – Changing Bias – S&P 500 didn‘t take kindly to deteriorating data – after a long time, bad news was indeed taken as bad news. The pivot hopes are… MORE>>
Jan 18, 2022 – More Hopium – Both S&P 500 and real assets welcomed the BoJ not giving ground, which translates into more money creation in defence of JGB yields, with USD consequences… MORE>>
Jan 17, 2023 – Tail Risks Emerging – S&P 500 continued higher Friday as consumer confidence data didn‘t disappoint – adding to soft landing hopes. Soft landing would though only… MORE>>
Jan 16, 2023 – Weekly Market Recap & Outlook – Happy MLK Day to those of your celebrating – and living these noble ideas. Let’s now take a big picture view of the economy, job market and Fed policy with… MORE>>
Jan 13, 2023 – Hawks and Surprises – S&P 500 didn‘t like CPI coming in line with expectations, and it was indeed „buy the rumor sell the news“ reaction, followed by cutting into 4,010 on… MORE>>
Jan 12, 2023 – Against the Fed Brick Wall – S&P 500 continued reversing the Powell fears after the Swedish nothingburger with barely a consolidation. The consensus is for a very low CPI figure, quite well even… MORE>>
Jan 11, 2023 – Dialing Back Fears – S&P 500 refused a panicky decline into Powell‘s speech, and swiftly recovered on no fresh hawkish clues. Market breadth improved, and the sellers… MORE>>
Jan 10, 2023 – Powell Fears – S&P 500 continued with Friday‘s momentum with barely a consolidation – until Fed‘s Daly spoke. I warned, and the sellers overcame 3,910 eventually. MORE>>
Jan 09, 2023 – Bad Is the New Good – Fitting summary of S&P 500 rally – we‘ve seen one of the largest 2y yields daily declines on slowing wage inflation. ISM Services PMIs also added… MORE>>
Jan 06, 2023 – Less Tightening Win – That‘s what S&P 500 needs – and with my patient call of the upside resolution to the recent range being more probable. For all the excitement of making another… MORE>>
Jan 05, 2023 – Jobs Chasing Inflation – S&P 500 tested the bottom part of the 3,875 – 3,810 range sufficiently, and it‘s about time to start probing the breakout. Even the Fed minutes are… MORE>>
Jan 04, 2023 – Yields Are Clear – Rocky entry to 2023 in stocks, but the bullish case for a Jan top isn‘t lost in the least. And it would be accompanied by retreat in bond yields, with risk taking… MORE>>
Jan 03, 2023 – Budding Sign Not to Miss – After a sour Dec of no Santa Claus rally, S&P 500 is readying a nice Jan move – and I say it would be up. Value hasn‘t retreated deeply while tech is getting ready for a reflexive… MORE>>
Dec 29, 2022 – The Year in Review and Ahead – S&P 500 still didn‘t catch second breath since giving up the (for some but not for you, my readers) sharp Dec CPI gains, and getting finished by Powell and… MORE>>
Dec 20, 2022 – Turnaround Tuesday – S&P 500 was slated to rise either during yesterday, or today, as the discussed barrage of tightening and worsening real economy news… MORE>>
Dec 19, 2022 – Sense of Reality – S&P 500 finished Friday on a weak note – gloomy string of tightening news from around the world, disappointing the markets and dialing back risk sentiment considerably. MORE>>
Dec 16, 2022 – How About a Bounce? – S&P 500 continued in the post-FOMC direction, and managed to keep above the 3,905-3,910 support. Arguably it could have done better as… MORE>>
Dec 15, 2022 – Tough Inflation Stance Still – S&P 500 bulls salivated in anticipation of some low CPI recognition, but got none from the Fed. Actually, Powell reiterated the readiness to… MORE>>
Dec 14, 2022 – Banzai CPI and Fed – S&P 500 celebrated the „only“ 7.1% CPI YoY news, but it was really just the real assets who kept their gains while stocks fell back to where… MORE>>
Dec 13, 2022 – That Santa Sleigh – S&P 500 recovered Friday‘s setback with ease and on rising volume amid confirmations from outside markets. Even cryptos started… MORE>>
Dec 12, 2022 – Why Bulls Cheer the Coming Hit – S&P 500 gave up not too far above the 3,965 level it could have kept as PPI decelerated not fast enough to meet market expectations. Rising yields mean… MORE>>
Dec 09, 2022 – Telltale Sign – PPI and core PPI came above expectations, fueling a sharp S&P 500 decline upon the data release. Similarly to yesterday though, the market reaction isn‘t unequivocal… MORE>>
Dec 08, 2022 – The Dog That Didn‘t Bark – S&P 500 didn‘t break the3,905-3,910 zone, not even overnight. Most tellingly, USD couldn‘t catch a proper bid on yields turning sharply up, and commodities… MORE>>
Dec 07, 2022 – Slight Risk-off Pause – S&P 500 continued lower as the 4,010 recapture attempt failed and 3,980 couldn‘t hold. Rejection at 200-day moving average, with prices down… MORE>>
Dec 06, 2022 – Those Damn Swaps – S&P 500 and especially real assets didn‘t take kindly to the serious whiff of risk-off that was manifest more so in financials (banking) than the dollar. Overshadowing… MORE>>
Dec 05, 2022 – Finest Opportunities Ahead – S&P 500 practically closed the overreaction gap on better than expected NFPs, but the weak close and aftermarket still Friday hinted at… MORE>>
Dec 02, 2022 – NFPs Miscalculation – In place of today’s regular analysis, I’ll continue lively Twitter coverage. The attempt to close the opening bearish gap, and recapture 4,040 – together with USD and yields… MORE>>
Dec 01, 2022 – Powell Delivered – Yesterday confirmed the risk-on turn in S&P 500 and beyond as Powell didn‘t spook the markets in the end. So, not even a temporary setback, let alone crash that many others… MORE>>
Nov 30, 2022 – Raging PMs – S&P 500 maintained overnight posture, and bonds held up really fine into the close while the dollar isn‘t showing too many signs of bullish life. The Powell speech is likely to be… MORE>>
Nov 29, 2022 – Powell Ahead – S&P 500 recovered from China uncertainty, keeping right below 4,000 until Williams and Bullard reiterated sticky inflation and high rates views. Reiterated – not… MORE>>
Nov 28, 2022 – Wildcard In – S&P 500 keeps nibbing at 4,040 and while rejected Friday and before, this level would be eventually overcome. Low 4,010s are the support, and the… MORE>>
Nov 24, 2022 – Winning the Day – S&P 500 closed on a fine note, and keeps nibbing at 4,040 – the great resistance that will ultimately fall (likely early next week). Running the stops before that… MORE>>
Nov 23, 2023 – Overrated Fed Minutes – S&P 500 did slowly grind higher, and the lower volume isn‘t an issue as bonds confirmed amply. The risk-on turn continues, driven by value with… MORE>>
Nov 22, 2022 – Ready to Spring – S&P 500 refused the intraday decline – value held up very finely. 2-year yield is on guard, but stocks are refusing to budge. Not even… MORE>>
Nov 21, 2022 – Fake Breakdown – S&P 500 bears couldn‘t follow through, and the bond market downswing looks tired – starting off a risk-on base, never quite flipping risk-off. MORE>>
Nov 18, 2022 – Reflating – S&P 500 bulls came back, 3,910 support held, and the dollar was unable to hold on to intraday gains really. In the European morning, I doubted… MORE>>
Nov 17, 2022 – On the Defensive – S&P 500 bulls didn‘t close conclusively while neither bonds nor the dollar pressured them much. Today, the manufacturing data confirmed my earlier point that a manufacturing recession… MORE>>
Nov 16, 2022 – Back to Risk-On – S&P 500 hasn‘t truly reversed yesterday – corrections are still to be bought, and the retreat in yields is especially helpful to tech as I wrote about extensively on Monday. MORE>>
Nov 15, 2022 – Tight Range Grind – S&P 500 reversed lower before the closing bell, but the low volume took away from the move‘s credibility. Only the bond market was more pessimistic in its close, however… MORE>>
Nov 14, 2022 – Paradigm Shift – S&P 500 confirmed Thursday‘s sharp upswing with more strength, and that‘s great for all of our long portfolio bets. Smashing turn continues in a… MORE>>
Nov 11, 2022 – Reason and Jubilation – S&P 500 neatly surprised on the upside as it moved in line with yesterday’s detailed battle plan – strong risk-on day followed. Value was in the lead, volume rose strongly as quite a few… MORE>>
Nov 10, 2022 – Tight CPI Race – S&P 500 invalidated the key bull flag thesis laid out in yesterday‘s chart section, and both 3,815 and low 3,770s supports gave way. I think markets are… MORE>>
Nov 09, 2022 – Winds of Change – Making a fine run, S&P 500 retreated from a vulnerable level of 3,865, but the bulls didn’t give up totally since. Still, this tough 3,848 – 3,855 resistance held, the breakout… MORE>>
Nov 08, 2022 – More of the Same – S&P 500 closed on declining volume higher yesterday, but bonds weren‘t truly confirming for much of the session. Still, the table was set for… MORE>>
Nov 07, 2022 – That Bullish Catalyst – S&P 500 volatile session Friday ended on a bright note, but the short-term clouds aren‘t over till Treasury yields stabilize. Actually given the heavy dollar downswing, stocks could have… MORE>>
Nov 04, 2022 – Risk-On In the Making – S&P 500 has good odds of having reached a local bottom, and performance around my yesterday‘s level of 3,752 would reveal the index direction for today. As for non-farm payrolls, I‘m looking for… MORE>>
Nov 03, 2022 – Hawkish Conference – S&P 500 was indeed sluggish into the FOMC only to welcome the statement – and then the presser came, with acentuated hawkishness that did sink not only stocks, but also bonds and real assets. MORE>>
Nov 02, 2022 – FOMC Reversal? – S&P 500 was rejected at 3,920s, but bonds didn‘t paint a disastrous picture throughout the day. The dollar‘s long lower knot seems to favor the bulls once the FOMC dust settles. I count on the Fed‘s 75bp hike and… MORE>>
Nov 01, 2022 – Dips to Buy – S&P 500 indeed entered yesterday in a corrective mode, which turned out to be a shallow downswing. USD and yields moved up – a bit too much to my liking, in a move that I saw as fake, especially… MORE>>
Oct 31, 2022 – Correction Time Indeed – S&P 500 didn‘t look back after Friday‘s opening bell – poor AAPL, AMZN guidance stemming from the cloud business chiefly (AMD, INTC, MSFT noting cooling in personal computing) was ignored, and the bull flag… MORE>>
Oct 28, 2022 – Another Bought Dip – S&P 500 was pulled lower overnight on poor AAPL, AMZN guidance even though current earnings didn‘t disappoint much – odds were any S&P 500 setback would be… MORE>>
Oct 27, 2022 – Bulls to Get Challenged – S&P 500 has been rejected at 3,900, but is showing premarket fine resilience in light of the META disappointment – and AAPL is reporting today. Sectoral market breadth is simply… MORE>>
Oct 26, 2022 – Q4 Rally Confirmed – S&P 500 made the move, breaking above the key 3,795 – 3,810 zone. Given the outside markets, the pullback would represent a buying opportunity, and the MSFT, GOOG earnings have indeed… MORE>>
Oct 25, 2022 – Chop Before the Move – oday‘s S&P 500 analysis will be short as the price action is unfolding as anticipated – stocks made an inroad into the key 3,795 – 3,810 zone (actually a couple of them), and after prolonged overnight… MORE>>
Oct 24, 2022 – Fate of Q4 Rally – S&P 500 turnaround was driven by the WSJ article that painted 75bp Nov and 50bp Dec hikes as some kind of a pivot, when it‘s not even a pause. While I had been for weeks of the opinion that this is… MORE>>
Oct 22, 2022 – Weekly Market Recap & Outlook – S&P 500 turnaround was driven the WSJ article, and I have my doubts as to whether sustainable bottoms can be made on such a news – even sustainable only in terms of giving rise to a reliable Q4 rally. Not when… MORE>>
Oct 21, 2022 – Choppy But Bearish – S&P 500 turned once again decisively lower yesterday, and the slow grind to the upcoming local bottom continues on rising volume – and that‘s good. Crucially, bonds continued supporting the move – as… MORE>>
Oct 20, 2022 – Slowing Down, Slowing Down – S&P 500 turned decisively lower yesterday, and the bulls were clearly rejected with their upswing attempt. No matter how HYG erased some of its intraday decline before the closing bell, TLT is… MORE>>
Oct 19, 2022 – Bears in Command – S&P 500 had arguably made a local top – formed a black body candle with sizable lower knot, which I‘m looking to get follow through selling today, and on tomorrow‘s set of… MORE>>
Oct 18, 2022 – Meeting Resistance – S&P 500 reversed Friday‘s decline, closing below 3,680 – the session was relatively tame, and it was the banking earnings that were instrumental in extending gains aftermarket. Little wonder with such yield spreads…. MORE>>
Oct 17, 2022 – Corrective Setback – S&P 500 Friday‘s session reversed the upswing so much that it call into question the Q4 rally as having started already. Given Friday‘s slide through both 3,640s and 3,625, Thursday’s…. MORE>>
Oct 16, 2022 – Weekly Market Recap & Outlook – The ease with which supports Friday had been broken through, that HYG wasn‘t able to defend high ground better, and that the long end of the curve hasn‘t yet stabilized, speaks for more… MORE>>
Oct 14, 2022 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Trading Signals and Monica’s Stock Signals subscribers.
Oct 14, 2022 – Ringing the Bell – S&P 500 strongly rallied after a precipitous drop to 3,500s on CPI data coming in predictably above expectations. I looked for high inflation data, and especially high core CPI data, and these… MORE>>
Oct 13, 2022 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Trading Signals and Monica’s Stock Signals subscribers.
Oct 13, 2022 – On Guard – S&P 500 bears managed to push prices down on declining volume, and the risk-on upswing in bonds was dialed back. VIX remains elevated while the put to call ratio didn‘t point to rising fear yesterday, and… MORE>>
Oct 12, 2022 – PPI Preview for Stocks – S&P 500 bears couldn‘t maintain the momentum, and the buyers pulled off a fake breakout. As much as it was supported by bonds, these gave up both their intraday gains and risk-on posture in… MORE>>
Oct 11, 2022 – BoE Déjà Vu – S&P 500 plunged on rising volume yesterday – even without bond markets being open. HYG sent out a clear message yesterday with its one way way slide – we‘re still in risk-off mode, USD keeps… MORE>>
Oct 10, 2022 – Still Elusive Rebound – S&P 500 obliged to the downside as reasonably fine NFPs brought back the justified bets on the Fed hiking yet again by 75bp in Nov, and by 50bp in Dec, which is in line with the Daly and Kashkari consistent utterances. MORE>>
Oct 09, 2022 – Weekly Market Recap & Outlook – S&P 500 obliged to the downside as reasonably fine NFPs brought back the justified bets on the Fed hiking yet again by 75bp in Nov, and by 50bp in Dec, which is in line with the Daly and Kashkari… MORE>>
Oct 07, 2022 – Really No Pivot – S&P 500 was again rejected on the upside, closing near the bottom of my 3,770s – 3,720s range aka no-man‘s land amid weakening bonds – weakening, but not yet considerably weak. MORE>>
Oct 06, 2022 – Groundhog Day – S&P 500 jubilation continued yet another day, but not after repelling some serious downside first. The bears didn‘t meet my key objective of breaking below 3,720s – but bonds weren‘t… MORE>>
Oct 05, 2022 – False Dawn Or Not – S&P 500 jubilation continued yesterday, and markets didn‘t really notice Fed‘s Williams throwing cold water on giving up the fight against inflation prematurely. The excessive moves in USD… MORE>>
Oct 04, 2022 – Fed Turn That Wasn’t – S&P 500 didn‘t look back at Monday‘s lows, bonds were pushing higher while the dollar retreated to my 111.50 support before stabilizing. Also junk bonds had… MORE>>
Oct 03, 2022 – SPX Bottom Near? – S&P 500 reversed to the downside on high volume, and the open short position became profitable from the get-go. No matter the premarket jubilation driven by retreat in bond yields, the bottom is clearly not yet in, and it‘s a matter of… MORE>>
Oct 02, 2022 – Weekly Market Recap & Outlook – Given the sharp S&P 500 intraday reversal to the downside that I don’t see as ending next week, I’ll discuss the medium term stock market prospects in tomorrow’s extensive analysis. The point of this Sunday’s update is to… MORE>>
Sep 30, 2022 – Still Hot Inflation – S&P 500 closed on a weak note, deferring the late session modest rebound anticipated to today’s premarket. After all, bonds noticeably pared back theu intraday downswings before… MORE>>
Sep 29, 2022 – Daily Turn or More – S&P 500 turned on a dime, and the daily rally turned out indeed one to chase. It‘s as if the BoE stepping in had the power to bring about a similar Fed turn – it obviously doesn‘t, and… MORE>>
Sep 28, 2022 – Intraday Update for Stocks #2 – Reserved for Monica’s Trading Signals and Monica’s Stock Signals subscribers.
Sep 28, 2022 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Trading Signals and Monica’s Stock Signals subscribers.
Sep 28, 2022 – 3-2-1 Reprieve – S&P 500 yet again closed on a weak note, but the second red candle in a row with a daily range between 3,650 and 3,680, warrants short-term caution. It‘s all fine and dandy that bonds… MORE>>
Sep 27, 2022 – Not So Solid Footing – S&P 500 caught some bid during the regular session only to close in the proximity of daily lows. Neither the outside markets provided much of a relief, let alone reliable signals to go long for a chunky… MORE>>
Sep 26, 2022 – All Eyes on Long-Dated Treasuries – S&P 500 yet again kept declining through the day, and Treasuries offered a bleak sight till shortly before the close when long-dated ones turned finally higher – and both tech and… MORE>>
Sep 23, 2022 – Treasuries Flashing Red – S&P 500 continued its downswing without much of a respite even though bonds favored stocks to reach higher than they did one hour before the closing bell. Interestingly,… MORE>>
Sep 22, 2022 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Trading Signals and Monica’s Stock Signals subscribers.
Sep 22, 2022 – Smashing Fed Day – S&P 500 turned decisively lower, with only a very brief spike that got reversed within an hour. No room for bullish misinterpretation, Powell didn‘t say really anything that could feed buy the dip sentiment – he delivered. Treasuries are… MORE>>
Sep 21, 2022 – Before the Drop – S&P 500 duly reversed as I called for it intraday to do. Not that the message from bonds or the dollar would be more optimistic really – for the bulls I mean. Whatever ground… MORE>>
Sep 20, 2022 – Fed Game Plan – S&P 500 rebound lacked volume even if internal strength didn‘t lag too badly. VIX isn‘t really declining as in trending lower, and given the big picture action in… MORE>>
Sep 19, 2022 – Weak Rebound, Weak – S&P 500 decline on the disappointing CPI – especially core inflation points at more to come, and the better PPI figures don‘t make up for that. So, stocks reversed sharply lower – but not before our profitable long position was closed… MORE>>
Sep 09, 2022 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Trading Signals and Monica’s Stock Signals subscribers.
Sep 07, 2022 – Game Plan and More Selling – S&P 500 went down, with neither tech nor value leading to the downside – nothing indicative of a bottom nearby. AAPL, GOOG down, and TSLA would soon join them – just as HYG, risk-on is barely clinging by the fingernails as… MORE>>
Sep 06, 2022 – Those September Storms – S&P 500 hardly caught a bid on Friday, and the weak showing more than reversed the suspect Thursday‘s rally led by defensives such as healthcare or utilities. The bear market clearly… MORE>>
Sep 02, 2022 – Intraday Update for Stocks #2 – Reserved for Monica’s Trading Signals and Monica’s Stock Signals subscribers.
Sep 02, 2022 – Hedging the Bets – S&P 500 dicey premarket upswing fizzled out right after the open, volume picked up, and market breadth correspondingly deteriorated. Bonds confirmed, and the higher yields didn‘t even send the dollar much upwards. MORE>>
Sep 02, 2022 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Trading Signals and Monica’s Stock Signals subscribers.
Sep 01, 2022 – Cat and Mouse Game – S&P 500 dicey premarket upswing fizzled out right after the open, volume picked up, and market breadth correspondigly deteriorated. Bonds confirmed, and the higher yields… MORE>>
Aug 31, 2022 – Dragging One‘s Feet – S&P 500 decline was driven by better than expected JOLTS and consumer confidence data, fuelling speculation that the Fed can now „afford“ to be more restrictive than… MORE>>
Aug 30, 2022 – That Glimmer of Hope – S&P 500 staged a modest recovery, attempting to close the opening gap, which it did before retreating. Bonds mirrored the late day hesitation as well, and VIX… MORE>>
Aug 29, 2022 – Bears Calling – S&P 500 cratered as Powell indeed delivered credibly, and the markets were surprised even though his speech merely confirmed the known positions – albeit using strong and direct language such as… MORE>>
Aug 28, 2022 – Weekly Market Recap & Outlook – S&P 500 bloodbath took quite a few by surprise, but you were thankfully not among them. VIX nicely jumped after approaching my base support area with its upper border of 21.50. Volatility is back, and Friday was a 1-2 punch… MORE>>
Aug 26, 2022 – Facing Damocles Sword – S&P 500 confirmed the daily outlook yesterday, and did really well. The signs before the close also favored bullish entry into today. VIX kept declining, UVXY confirming – no surprise that the bears were weak intraday, and… MORE>>
Aug 25, 2022 – Jackson Hole Plan – S&P 500 didn‘t break below the 4,110s and the entry to yesterday‘s session made me think 4,160s would hold. They did, but today, they‘re likely to be overcome as the markets… MORE>>
Aug 24, 2022 – Bidding Some Time – S&P 500 didn‘t swing even temporarily higher yesterday, refusing to act on relatively bullish signs from bonds. No turnaround, Nasdaq was also flat – and the volume… MORE>>
Aug 23, 2022 – In a Heartbeat – S&P 500 cratered, bonds confirmed, and market breadth took a dive. The advance-decline line is not really in a good shape, and the respite that‘s possibly… MORE>>
Aug 22, 2022 – Enticing the Bears – S&P 500 duly gave up on the weak Thursday‘s rebound, and bonds cratered as Treasuries aren‘t yielding on the Fed tightening expectations. There is almost 70% probability… MORE>>
Aug 19, 2022 – It Started – Following yesterday‘s weak rally and bonds showing, S&P 500 bears have the upper hand (timely announcement). Then, the crypto plunge is adding to downswing‘s credibility – about to… MORE>>
Aug 18, 2022 – Daily Check – S&P 500 bears missed yesterday‘s opportunity to force a decisive close lower – several key sectors led the intraday recovery even though bonds weren‘t on board. MORE>>
Aug 17, 2022 – Turning Up the Heat – S&P 500 was swiftly rejected at 200-day moving average – like clockwork, with bonds presaging further weakness. Not yet a down day, but the sea of red extended to… MORE>>
Aug 16, 2022 – Not Batting Much of an Eyelid – S&P 500 rejected shallow downside, and easily continued pushing higher – bonds aren‘t turning risk-off, but HYG is getting into an extended (vulnerable) position. So far, markets have largely ignored three latest data pieces in – Empire State… MORE>>
Aug 15, 2022 – The Turn – Are earnings going to increase from here still? Who is going to be willing to pay higher earnings per share when the real economy is on the verge of… MORE>>
Aug 13, 2022 – Weekly Market Recap & Outlook – S&P 500 more than erased Thu‘s decline – buy the dip mentality won, and the advance was that broad-based that it makes sense that I examine the theoretical possibility of… MORE>>
Aug 12, 2022 – Bonds Get It Right – S&P 500 did another daily reversal, but the bears haven‘t yet won. The risk-on in stocks hasn‘t been broken as value demonstrates, but bonds are getting the macro picture right, as they… MORE>>
Aug 11, 2022 – The Squeeze – S&P 500 bulls went on to extend and defend gains following the fireworks reaction to CPI (as if inflation were banished by one 0% MoM reading), and bonds overall… MORE>>
Aug 10, 2022 – The Spike – S&P 500 bulls didn‘t even meekly take initiative yesterday, and odds are this positioning would hold through today‘s CPI – and crucially the regular session‘s reaction to it. MORE>>
Aug 09, 2022 – The Reversal – S&P 500 bulls were clearly rejected, and it‘s highly questionable whether they would make another run. I doubt they would. And even if, it‘s bound to get rejected as… MORE>>
Aug 08, 2022 – Unclosed Gap – S&P 500 bulls made a good run, but didn‘t deal with the bearish outcome looming, The renewed tightening bets spurred by strong headline NFPs figure, will take their toll on… MORE>>
Aug 07, 2022 – Weekly Market Recap & Outlook – S&P 500 bulls made a good run, but didn‘t deal with the bearish outcome looming, The renewed tightening bets spurred by strong NFPs headline figure, will take their toll on risk-on assets that… MORE>>
Aug 05, 2022 – Bull Trap Ready – S&P 500 bearish overtures were refused, bonds remained optically risk-on and strong, but the true picture reflects a daily stall. Refusal to drive prices higher in the absence of… MORE>>
Aug 04, 2022 – Slowly Thinning Air – S&P 500 rose, driven by tech at expense of value, which is normail in economic slowdowns. The junk bond rally however stands out – a prime candidate to attract selling at… MORE>>
Aug 03, 2022 – Another Upswing Attempt – S&P 500 refused to swing higher yesterday, and bonds weren‘t much risk-on either. Revisiting the neutral Fed funds rate comments didn‘t do much good for risk sentiment, even though HYG… MORE>>
Aug 02, 2022 – It‘s Starting – S&P 500 met its daily setback, one that has potential to develop over Aug into a more serious one. Financials and consumer discretionaries are signalling a pause in the rally ahead – a pause as a minimum, gradual rollove… MORE>>
Aug 01, 2022 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Trading Signals and Monica’s Stock Signals subscribers.
Aug 01, 2022 – Bears to Have the Last Laugh – S&P 500 nary consolidated, and continued higher as was most likely. Dollar down, bonds up and the risk appetite was visible very well across real assets especially. Given the weakening… MORE>>
Jul 29, 2022 – Consolidation Now – S&P 500 did a brief intraday downswing yesterday – very fast erased. Bonds strong, market breadth further improving, FOMO almost kicking in – and then AAPL and AMZN earnings interpretation provided for a fresh upleg aftermarket. MORE>>
Jul 29, 2022 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Trading Signals and Monica’s Stock Signals subscribers.
Jul 28, 2022 – Bullish Case Explained – S&P 500 slowly rising into the FOMC served to confirm the upcoming bullish interpretation of Fed moves. On one hand, the 75bp rate hike is over, on the other hand less clarity about future rate hikes rules now – markets… MORE>>
Jul 27, 2022 – Right on Cue – S&P 500 declined, but the short-term bullish case is far from lost. There is a stark contrast to yesterday‘s tech earnings as opposed to Walmart or Snapchat lately – shifting focus to… MORE>>
Jul 26, 2022 – Range Break Ahead – S&P 500 consolidated in a narrow range yesterday, and didn‘t offer too many clues apart from bonds doing relatively fine – and one more sign pointing towards the likely path of current trading range‘s resolution… MORE>>
Jul 25, 2022 – Bearish Test – S&P 500 bears took over from the 4,010s area but didn‘t close convincingly – and bonds didn‘t tank, which means this rally isn‘t yet over. It may extend beyond Monday‘s premarket, and even… MORE>>
Jul 22, 2022 – Countdown to Reversal – S&P 500 recovered from the inial bout of selling, and so did bonds. Whether the risk-on upswing stalls today or next week only, it still looks set to stall as the 50-day moving average… MORE>>
Jul 21, 2022 – Peril Approaching – S&P 500 had trouble extending gains, bonds didn‘t close on a strong note, and the dollar is readying an upswing. Can easily happen on the ECB move, and poof – … MORE>>
Jul 20, 2022 – Catching Breath – S&P 500 reached my initial target of 3,940, and turned out indeed slated for premarket consolidations today. No signs of daily weakness either in tech or value… MORE>>
Jul 19, 2022 – Stunning Setback Or Not – S&P 500 gave up opening gains, a bit too easily. The 3,880s didn‘t hold, and bonds lost their risk-on posture. Yields rose, but the dollar declined – and the greenback doesn‘t look to be… MORE>>
Jul 18, 2022 – Risk-On Vs. Liquidity Squeeze – S&P 500 ended a losing streak thanks to the still fine retail sales data, and even consumer confidence edged up. In the flattening yield curve characterizing the move to a slow growth phase,… MORE>>
Jul 08, 2022 – Recession and NFPs – S&P 500 was duly bucking the trend of decreasing liquidity, bonds remained risk-on, and the dollar paused (hanging in there as if wanting to at least somewhat consolidate the prior gains). Just as… MORE>>
Jul 07, 2022 – Bucking Liquidity – S&P 500 rose on the Fed minutes, and I really liked the resilience leading towards it. The weakness in both paper and real assets didn‘t continue, but the strengthening dollar remains a key watchout. MORE>>
Jul 06, 2022 – Symptoms of Rising Dollar – S&P 500 refused the intraday downswing, and bonds confirmed the relative resilience. The reprieve in long-dated Treasuries (driven by darkening real economy prospects – just wait for… MORE>>
Jul 05, 2022 – Opening Salvo – S&P 500 really reversed and scored quite some gains on risk-on turn in bonds. It‘s the quality debt instruments that are leading (yes, there was significant selling into TLT strength Friday… MORE>>
Jul 01, 2022 – Little Pause – S&P 500 might be getting a little ahead of itself in the very short-term – the price decline looks in need of some really brief consolidation. Bonds have likewise paused, and the retreat in Treasury yields… MORE>>
Jun 30, 2022 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
Jun 30, 2022 – Turning the Screws – S&P 500 duly paused yesterday but the (beyond very short-term) outlook remains as bearish as before. Bonds agree, but in the interests of real assets, I would have preferred to see stronger performance by… MORE>>
Jun 29, 2022 – More Fresh Profits – S&P 500 decisively turned around, and declined powerfully. The short entry was well placed, and open profits are likely to grow still before the bottom is reached. What we‘re likely to experience next… MORE>>
Jun 28, 2022 – Strapped for Time – S&P 500 bull couldn‘t extend gains on Monday, and credit markets don‘t look too optimistic. One more hooray before the bears take over? That‘s my working hypothesis. Whatever gains right after the open… MORE>>
Jun 27, 2022 – Watching Out – S&P 500 squeeze aka overdue relief rally in the end developed, on sharply improving daily momentum and quite supportive bonds. Would that change the medium-term picture though? It would serve only to suck in bulls, thinking the bottom is in – while the Fed doesn‘t have the stock market‘s back,… MORE>>
Jun 24, 2022 – Against the Odds – S&P 500 overdue relief rally – flat, lacking significant momentum, not internally at its strongest – is here. Instead of projecting any healthy bear market rally targets… MORE>>
Jun 23, 2022 – Creeping In – Deterioration, that is – be it in S&P 500 market breadth or the jobs data. More to come, obviously, the disappearing liquidity is making itself felt broadly, and the real economy weakness… MORE>>
Jun 22, 2022 – Time Running Out – S&P 500 rally didn‘t catch second breath before the closing bell, and bonds aren‘t favoring it to continue. There is no risk-on constellation anymore, and the broad selloff on growth slash recession… MORE>>
Jun 21, 2022 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
Jun 21, 2022 – No Dodging the Bullet – S&P 500 recovered from the intraday reversal to the downside, thanks to tech. Value‘s poor showing can be chalked down to the riskier junk bonds losing early gains, meaning the daily stock market move didn‘t… MORE>>
Jun 20, 2022 – About That Soft Landing – While there are holidays today, I wanted to present you with a preview of tomorrow‘s extensive analysis – as regards stocks and the economy… MORE>>
Jun 17, 2022 – Little Reprieve – S&P 500 likely put in a short-term bottom, and the fresh long position is profitable from the get-go. Bonds offered the first promising signs, and so far only value has acted upon it – that provides more fuel to the upcoming relief rally. MORE>>
Jun 16, 2022 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
Jun 16, 2022 – Not Buying It – S&P 500 recovered in the wake of soothing Powell conference but his words are being doubted. Inflation expectations aren‘t taking a dive on 75bp hike – catching this runaway horse now would be harder than a year ago. MORE>>
Jun 15, 2022 – Will They Or Won‘t They – S&P 500 is gyrating with the the Fed rate hike speculation – 50 or 75bp? Treasuries are still demanding a higher one now and more later as inflation hasn‘t even temporarily slowed down. MORE>>
Jun 14, 2022 – The Whirlwind – S&P 500 selloff came – a juicy and profitable one. Bond market posture continues being negative, with no intraday comeback sticking. The pressure on the Fed is raised to the degree of… MORE>>
Jun 13, 2022 – The Breakdown – S&P 500 didn‘t regain any footing at all – the CPI casting verdict on even very temporary notion of inflation peak, was strong in its implications for it increases the pressure on the Fed to do more. MORE>>
Jun 10, 2022 – The Break – S&P 500 took decisively to the downside late yesterday, and credit markets followed. No risk-on positioning, but selling across the board broadly translating into stock market weakness. MORE>>
Jun 09, 2022 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
Jun 09, 2022 – Decision Time – S&P 500 declined, within the existing narrow range, but more downside is likely to come. Bonds continue pointing lower, commodities are squeezing, yields aren‘t meaningfully retreating, and inflation keeps biting. MORE>>
Jun 08, 2022 – A Little Squeeze – S&P 500 recovered opening setback fast, and daily volume slightly increased. Bonds though didn‘t follow in the enthusiasm nearly as much – the short-term stock market balance is tight, but… MORE>>
Jun 07, 2022 – On Collision Course – S&P 500 reversed right on the waiting entry order, and open short profits can be expected to grow. The Sunday warning about bonds is turning out prescient – the pause in bond yields… MORE>>
Jun 06, 2022 – Readying the Sell – S&P 500 looks set to open on a relatively strong note, and the unbeaten resistance is approaching again. 4,180 or a tad above, is where the bears are. Crude oil and precious metals are improving today, and… MORE>>
Jun 05, 2022 – The Horns of Fed‘s Dilemma – S&P 500 gave up Thursday‘s gains much too easily – not even the short window of opportunity gets acted upon. Medium-term trend is winning – stocks will roll over to a fresh downtrend, it‘s a question of time. MORE>>
Jun 03, 2022 – Borrowed Time – S&P 500 was indeed building a bull flag, which „must“ now continue with a fresh upleg so that the formation is validated. Odds are that in spite of the tech-led upswing, the rally would continue. All that‘s required for today, is… MORE>>
Jun 02, 2022 – Stall Speed Before Running – S&P 500 could still be building a bull flag on the daily chart, followed by an upswing tomorrow on non-farm payrolls. Who knows what kinds of adjustments would show that the real economy isn‘t decelerating all that badly? MORE>>
Jun 01, 2022 – Risk-on Run – S&P 500 didn‘t waver much even though credit markets did – the risk-on sentiment in stocks goes on even when faced with a dollar upswing (which was sold into). The defensive slant to the S&P 500 gains… MORE>>
May 31, 2022 – Game Plan Ahead – S&P 500 did fine on Friday as well, and the long streak of weeks in red, is over (for now). The rally would continue for quite a while longer – after all, we indeed got the sign inflation made its peak with the May data. Also… MORE>>
May 30, 2022 – Bear Market Rally – S&P 500 turned the corner, yields peaked for now, and dollar likewise. Risk-on sentiment is ruling the day, with value outperforming tech – but at least the latter is also recovering. Stocks though… MORE>>
May 19, 2022 – Very False Dawn, Really – S&P 500 indeed cratered, and bonds are starting to diverge – Treasuries are catching a bid in reflection of deteriorating real economy prospects while junk corporate bonds can‘t find a bottom just yet. The flight to safety… MORE>>
May 18, 2022 – False Dawn – In bonds, that is – what could have been a TLT low a week ago, is slowly turning out as a dud. S&P 500 was disregarding that, and Thursday‘s upside reversal continued through yesterday. The soothing… MORE>>
May 17, 2022 – Rally Darlings – S&P 500 bulls repelled two selling attempts yesterday, and even though bonds aren‘t yet confirming, the risk-on rally in stocks (that I gave benefit of the doubt on the late Friday’s dip), goes on. MORE>>
May 16, 2022 – Budding Rally – S&P 500 bulls continued late Thursday‘s recovery, and the rally against the bond market odds took off. And it would likely continue for a while, probably stopping at roughly 4,200 support (now resistance). I think stocks… MORE>>
May 16, 2022 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
May 13, 2022 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
May 13, 2022 – Turning Treasuries – S&P 500 bulls stepped in before the close but credit markets show no risk-on signs of life. Instead, it appears that Treasuries are slowly but surely making the (first one to look for) turn that I talked about on Monday in the… MORE>>
May 12, 2022 – Reprieve No More – S&P 500 bulls didn‘t rise to the occasion, even though HYG was quite constructive early in the day. TLT upswing is however notable, and could point out the acknowledgement of darkening real economy prospects, and… MORE>>
May 11, 2022 – Daily Reprieve or More – S&P 500 modest risk-on turn talked yesterday, is underway – with adequate support from bonds. That means the dollar is going to get under daily selling pressure, with positive consequences for assets spanning… MORE>>
May 10, 2022 – No Capitulation Yet – S&P 500 washed out yesterday, and may hesitate a little around 4,000 next. But the downtrend isn‘t over, yields keep rising relentlessly, propelling the dollar. A long-term buying opportunity for S&P 500 isn‘t yet here, stocks… MORE>>
May 10, 2022 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
May 09, 2022 – Sequencing the Turnaround – S&P 500 downswing continued, and two meek intraday rallies couldn‘t change that. Bond market pressure is very much on – yields rising relentlessly, forcing the Fed‘s hand. Or better said, disbelieving that a mere series of… MORE>>
May 06, 2022 – Snowball‘s Chance in Hell – S&P 500 duly plunged, and the risk-on turn that I wrote off on the spot, is over faster than anyone can say Jack Robinson. Tech continues flirting with disaster, and value isn‘t at its strongest either. Recognition of the tightening reality goes on, and is hitting hard. MORE>>
May 05, 2022 – Erroneous Jubilation – S&P 500 and risk assets welcomed the Fed tone – the expected 50bp hike was attenuated by the soft landing talk. That‘s what markets focused on – not on all the rate raising and balance sheet shrinking ahead. MORE>>
May 04, 2022 – The Fed Day – Not too much has happened since the intraday update – the 4,190 level in S&P 500 proved once again an obstacle, and the FOMC later today is likely to be perceived as a surprise on the bearish side. Whatever hesitation in Treasuries there has been,… MORE>>
May 04, 2022 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
May 03, 2022 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
May 03, 2022 – In the Driver‘s Seat – S&P 500 gyrated in a wild daily range, putting in a daily upside reversal. In spite of the risk-on tunr in the credit markets, is that upswing to be trusted? Even if we do get the false hopes (and modest) rally into tomorrow‘s FOMC, Treasuries keep pointing lower still… MORE>>
May 02, 2022 – Short-Lived Indeed – S&P 500 sold off hard after the opening spike above 4,260 failed, immediately failed. Bonds gradually joined, in a risk-off fashion, and even though TLT didn‘t plunge, tech totally did – and the same goes for value. Could have been a… MORE>>
Apr 29, 2022 – Another Squeeze – S&P 500 refused the plunge right after open, and broad-based upswing developed. Looked like a genuine upswing that could last for a while, but today‘s premarket weakness raises the question whether that wasn‘t another short squeeze only. MORE>>
Apr 28, 2022 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
Apr 28, 2022 – Some Buying Interest – S&P 500 had trouble declining further, and unlike bonds, may be headed for a reprieve on par with Tuesday‘s performance. That‘s the outlook for today and tomorrow unless bonds continue decisively to the downside, dragging stocks with it. MORE>>
Apr 27, 2022 – Yet Again – S&P 500 disregarded the hammer candlestick, and dove regardless. No surprise, there were too many oddities as I told you before publishing yesterday‘s analysis – strange showings beyond bonds. Tech obliged to the downside as… MORE>>
Apr 26, 2022 – Squeezing the Bears – S&P 500 rose sharply from the 4,200 intraday lows, but the tech move wasn‘t facilitated by Treasuries rising. Quite the opposite, it‘s as if the risk-on turn in bonds came at the expense of value stocks, which is a little odd. MORE>>
Apr 25, 2022 – Still Lower to Go – S&P 500 slide continues as the hawkish Fed gets digested – stocks don‘t like it, and neither do bonds. Given the steep pace of Treasuries‘ slide, we‘re though closer to a bottom there than in stocks, which could continue selling off still some more. For now,… MORE>>
Apr 22, 2022 – Yes, Bearish – S&P 500 didn‘t like even the 50bp hike idea for May, or the increased bets on 75bp one in June. No reason to be stunned, such moves were long in the making, but won‘t be enough to derail inflation beyond a temporary softer patch coinciding with real economy deceleration. MORE>>
Apr 21, 2022 – The Shifting Pendulum – S&P 500 budged intraday credit market indecision, and moved higher no matter how poorly tech traded. The upswing in stocks was driven by value rising in spite Treasuries moving higher. Probably… MORE>>
Apr 20, 2022 – Turning Around for Good? – S&P 500 rose incessantly during the regular session but bonds don‘t yet confirm the decline would be over. So much hawkish noise (75bp hike next?), and tech keeps rising? Still a peculiar case of strength but a daily rotation… MORE>>
Apr 19, 2022 – Fishy Stabilization – S&P 500 closed undecided in the light Monday‘s session, but bond yields continue rising (no, the HYG pause doesn‘t cut it) – the bottom isn‘t yet in, and I fully expect stocks to go down after a brief pause of „just hanging in there“ the way they do now. MORE>>
Apr 18, 2022 – Look Out Below – S&P 500 easily gave up Wednesday‘s gains, and bonds continued declining – the bear market wasn‘t over, I told you we were starting a fresh downleg. Tech is leading in the plunge, and value had trouble keeping opening gains. MORE>>
Apr 15, 2022 – Bearish, Told You So – S&P 500 reversed to the downside, on rising volume – with credit markets confirming. TLT is leading, and tech feels that especially. Right, lower prices in stocks are next as the bear market hasn‘t run the course yet. MORE>>
Apr 14, 2022 – Little Risk-On Turn – S&P 500 rose on the whiff of credit markets turning up – while the HYG upswing held, TLT gave up most of the gained ground. Tech still managed to rise nicely on the day, on par with value, which is though leaving stocks a little exposed. MORE>>
Apr 13, 2022 – The Roaring Bear – S&P 500 turned down as the fake upswing I warned you before the CPI release, ran its course very fast. Today‘s PPI is underscoring the quickening inflation, no surprise here apart from the mainstream. MORE>>
Apr 12, 2022 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
Apr 12, 2022 – Still Bearish Stocks? – S&P 500 kept plunging into the close, with yields rising across the board – confirming the slide as much as tech weakness. With the White House playing the extraordinarily elevated inflation card with some finger pointing… MORE>>
Apr 11, 2022 – Where Next, Bears? – S&P 500 intraday resilience fizzled out, predictably. I just didn‘t like the credit markets performance, this yields spike isn‘t over yet as everyone and their brother listen to the Fed‘s hawkish tune. Sure, they‘ll… MORE>>
Apr 08, 2022 – In the Crosshairs – S&P 500 upswing was partially rejected yesterday. Is there more to come? I doubt so, credit markets keep acting weak, and the dollar is of course up. The TLT intraday upswing was simply too unconvincing to turn the tide, and… MORE>>
Apr 07, 2022 – In the Driver‘s Seat – S&P 500 swang higher following the Fed minutes, but little has changed – merely a glance at credit markets tells me that stocks are likely to continue moving down. Still, a discounted entry point was provided, and open short profits can grow. MORE>>
Apr 06, 2022 – Bearish Comeback – Instead of muddling through, S&P 500 moved down on slightly rising daily volume. It sure looks like the relative lull is in its latter innings, with the bears coming back. The only thing unclear is whether… MORE>>
Apr 05, 2022 – More of the Same – S&P 500 lean day finished with modest gains that didn‘t reflect credit market enthusiasm. An upswing is on the way? Probably, I‘m not yet declaring this stock market advance as over – we have way, way more than a week to go still. MORE>>
Apr 04, 2022 – Big Picture View – S&P 500 erased intraday downside before the closing bell, and we‘re looking at another lackluster week of sideways to higher price action. The modest rally is getting old in the tooth, but not yet ready for a heavy plunge marking a major buying opportunity. MORE>>
Apr 01, 2022 – Consolidating Commodities – S&P 500 attempt to erase the opening downside fizzled out, and credit markets turned risk-off, with TLT having trouble to keep intraday gains to top it off. The decline was broad-based, and tech didn‘t really outperform. MORE>>
Mar 31, 2022 – 2 Step Forward, 1 Step Back – S&P 500 didn‘t make the most out credit markets price action, but looks primed to have a better day today, which concerns primarily tech. It‘s my view we haven‘t reached the top, and… MORE>>
Mar 30, 2022 – Commodities Return – S&P 500 gapped higher, and extended gains. The bond upswing continues, and particularly HYG was in a celebratory mood. Both tech and value had to deal with some selling pressure earlier in the day yesterday, which points to a more balanced trading today… MORE>>
Mar 29, 2022 – Shaking Out Weak Hands – S&P 500 upswing continues, and credit markets have turned up and risk-on. Further stock market gains are likely given the way tech rose on the TLT upswing while value largely held ground. This is very positive as it readies the 500-strong index for… MORE>>
Mar 28, 2022 – Risk-on Time – S&P 500 is moving up, and Friday’s upswing that I looked for, happened, almost reaching my price target. Encouragingly, it was driven by value rather than tech, highlighting the title of today’s brief overview. The 4-6 week stock market upswing that… MORE>>
Mar 25, 2022 – Rebalancing and Pullback – S&P 500 gained amid modestly risk-on credit markets, which I looked for to happen following Wednesday’s stumbling. At the same time, crude oil including oil stocks retreated a little in what can be in no way qualified as having topped. Precious metals… MORE>>
Mar 24, 2022 – Extending Gains – S&P 500 started the Monday described shallow consolidation, and it was both tech and value that declined. The key feature of the day was the sharp TLT upswing, but HYG held up relatively well, which makes it likely that yesterday’s risk-off turn… MORE>>
Mar 23, 2022 – Real Assets Run – As I was looking for, S&P 500 is consolidating prior sharp run while more bullish spirits are returning to commodities and precious metals. This measured advance is likely to continue – on sound footing, less headline driven as talked lately. MORE>>
Mar 22, 2022 – Hawkish Fed „Surprise“ – S&P 500 wavered but is bound to get its act together in the medium term. Powell‘s statements shouldn‘t have stunned the bulls, but they did – the mere reiteration of the tightening plans coupled with remarks on the need to stamp out… MORE>>
Mar 21, 2022 – Walking on Sunshine – S&P 500 did really well through quad witching, and the same goes for credit markets. 4-day streak of non-stop gains – very fast ones. Short squeeze characteristics in the… MORE>>
Mar 20, 2022 – Weekly Market Recap & Outlook – The paper asset made it through quad witching in style – both stocks and bonds. The risk-on sentiment however didn’t sink commodities or precious metals. Wednesday’s FOMC brought worries over the Fed hitting real economy… MORE>>
Mar 18, 2022 – Good Volatility Ahead – S&P 500 extended gains, and the risk appetite in bonds carried over into value rising faster than tech. Given the TLT downswing though, it‘s all but rainbows and unicorns ahead today. Not only that quad witching would… MORE>>
Mar 17, 2022 – Business As Usual – S&P 500 reversed the pre-FOMC decline, and turned up. The upswing didn‘t fizzle out after the conference, quite to the contrary, the credit markets deepened their risk-on posture. I guess stocks are buying the story of… MORE>>
Mar 16, 2022 – Intraday Update for Stocks #2 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
Mar 16, 2022 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
Mar 16, 2022 – Snowball‘s Chance in Hell – S&P 500 is turning around, and odds are that would be so till the FOMC later today. The pressure on Powell to be really dovish, is on. I‘m looking for a lot of uncerrtainty and flexibility introduction, and much less concrete rate hikes talk… MORE>>
Mar 15, 2022 – Not Yet Toast – S&P 500 decline was led by tech, and made possible by credit markets‘ plunge. The 4,160s held on a closing basis, and unless the bulls clear this area pretty fast today, this key support would come under pressure once again over the nearest days. Interestingly,… MORE>>
Mar 14, 2022 – Hanging By a Thread – S&P 500 bulls again missed the opportunity, and credit markets likewise. Not even the virtual certainty of only 25bp hike in Mar is providing much relief to the credit markets. Given that the real economy is considerably slowing down and that recession looks arriving… MORE>>
Mar 13, 2022 – Weekly Market Recap & Outlook – The paper asset bulls missed another opportunity on Friday, and it’s not about risk aversion before the weekend – cryptos have barely moved since. Credit markets risk off posture has decidedly continued, and coupled with… MORE>>
Mar 11, 2022 – Now, That‘s Better – S&P 500 gave up the opening gains, but managed to close on a good note, in spite of credit markets not confirming. Given though the high volume characterizing HYG downswing and retreating crude oil, we may be in for… MORE>>
Mar 10, 2022 – Not Passing Smell Test – S&P 500 tech driven upswing makes the advance a bit suspect, and prone to consolidation. I would have expected value to kick in to a much greater degree given the risk-on posture in the credit markets. The steep downswing in… MORE>>
Mar 09, 2022 – Ringing the Bell – S&P 500 once again gave up intraday gains, and credit markets confirmed the decline. Value down significantly more than tech, risk-off anywhere you look. For days without end, but the reprieve can come on seemingly little to no positive news, just when… MORE>>
Mar 08, 2022 – It‘s Not Over Yet – S&P 500 indeed didn‘t reverse on Friday in earnest, and both tech and value sold off hard. Not much reason to be bullish thanks to credit markets performance either – the posture is very risk-off, and the rush to commodities goes on. With a little check… MORE>>
Mar 07, 2022 – Peculiar Reversal – S&P 500 recovered most of the intraday downside, and in spite of value driving the upswing, there is something odd about it. Tech barely moved higher during the day, and the heavyweights continue being beaten similarly to biotech compared to the rest of healthcare. MORE>>
Mar 06, 2022 – Weekly Market Recap & Outlook – There is something that isn’t quite right about Friday’s S&P 500 upside reversal, even though e.g. value performance ticks all the boxes. Credit markets didn’t convince me – sure, part of the story is the reassessment of Fed rate hike prospects… MORE>>
Mar 04, 2022 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
Mar 04, 2022 – Back to Risk-Off – S&P 500 consolidation isn‘t turning out well for the bulls as 4,300 can be easily broken again if I look at credit markets‘ posture. Treasuries just aren‘t sliding no matter the Fed‘s ambiguity on inflation, let alone markets sniffing out… MORE>>
Mar 03, 2022 – Surging Commodities – S&P 500 returned above 4,350s as credit markets indeed weren‘t leading to the downside. Consolidation now followed by more upside, that‘s the most likely scenario next. Yesterday‘s risk-on turn was reflected also in value rising more than tech. MORE>>
Mar 02, 2022 – Real Assets, Bonds and New Profits – S&P 500 broke through 4,350s in what appears a back and forth consolidation, for now. Credit markets aren‘t leading to the downside – HYG merely corrected within the risk-on sentiment. Stocks and bonds… MORE>>
Mar 01, 2022 – Told You, Risk On – S&P 500 erased opening downside, not unexpectedly. Markets say we‘ve turned the corner, and while the medium-term correction isn‘t over, we‘re going higher for now. The tired performance in credit markets suggests… MORE>>
Feb 28, 2022 – Not Batting an Eyelid – S&P 500 didn‘t correct much intraday, and the risk-on turn has continued unabated with value pulling ahead sharply – unlike the day before when the revesal came about because of tech. The dust is… MORE>>
Feb 27, 2022 – Weekly Market Recap & Outlook – A week like no other is almost over, and markets have kept their cool. Downside volatility in stocks was superseded with an equally sharp upswing that didn’t pause much on Friday. Credit markets aren’t panicking either – the high TLT open Thursday morning… MORE>>
Feb 25, 2022 – Risk Premium, Poof – S&P 500 recovered the steep losses as the shock was replaced with relief over the international response. Safe haven bids largely disappeared, and can be counted on remaining pressured – this concerns precious metals and crude oil. MORE>>
Feb 24, 2022 – It Begins – S&P 500 reprieve that wasn‘t – the buyers didn‘t arrive, and the overnight military action sparking serious asset moves, shows that buying the dip would have been a bad idea. And it still is. Risk-on assets are likely to suffer, and I‘m not looking for a sharp, V-shaped… MORE>>
Feb 23, 2022 – Let‘s Try Again – S&P 500 had a wild swings day, and didn‘t rise convincingly – credit markets didn‘t move correspondingly either. The upswing looks postponed unless… MORE>>
Feb 22, 2022 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
Feb 22, 2022 – Risk-on Surprise – S&P 500 is waking up to fresh European news, and holds up well. There is no panic upswing in gold and silver, but crude oil and natural gas are up the most. As the U.S. markets are to open following… MORE>>
Feb 21, 2022 – Changing Gears – S&P 500 opening upswing gave way to more selling, but credit markets didn‘t lead to the downside on a daily basis. This tells me the plunge would likely be challenged shortly. As in facing a reversal attempt – it‘s that junk bonds… MORE>>
Feb 20, 2022 – Weekly Market Recap & Outlook – Friday’s tight opening range didn’t last too long, and the lackluster (but not risk-off) credit market posture gave way to panicky selling on incoming Eastern European news. Suddenly only… MORE>>
Feb 18, 2022 – Confirming Carnage – S&P 500 plunged with broad participation, a bit more than could be expected by the credit markets action. The bulls lost a good intraday opportunity to move above 4,420, and now it‘s up to the credit markets to… confirm the carnage as today‘s title says. MORE>>
Feb 17, 2022 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
Feb 17, 2022 – Bearish Turn Coming – Thanks to Fed minutes, the S&P 500 closed modestly up, but could have taken the stronger credit markets cue. Instead, the upswing was sold into – the selling pressure is there, and neither… MORE>>
Feb 16, 2022 – Stumbling Again – S&P 500 rebound goes on reflexively, but stormy clouds are gathering – I‘m looking for the bears to reassert themselves over the next couple of days latest. The credit markets posture is far from raging risk-on even though select commodities are… MORE>>
Feb 15, 2022 – Mean Reversion – S&P 500 refused further downside yesterday, and while credit markets didn‘t move much, rebound looks approaching as stocks might lead bonds in the risk appetite. When the East European tensions get dialed down, S&P 500… MORE>>
Feb 14, 2022 – Rush to Safety – S&P 500 opening range gave way to heavy selling as 4,470s didn‘t hold. Risk-on was overpowered, and the flight to Treasuries didn‘t support tech. And that‘s most medium-term worrying – stocks don‘t look to have found a floor, and… MORE>>
Feb 13, 2022 – Weekly Market Recap & Outlook – Friday’s tight opening range didn’t last too long, and the lackluster (but not risk-off) credit market posture gave way to panicky selling on incoming Eastern European news. Suddenly only… MORE>>
Feb 11, 2022 – Thriving on Hawkish Fed – S&P 500 upswing was rejected – the intraday comeback didn‘t succeed. Risk-off posture won the day, and the dust is settling. Day 4-5 of the rally‘s window of opportunity that I talked on Monday, is proving as a milestone. Hot CPI data… MORE>>
Feb 10, 2022 – Where to Look for Fresh Gains – S&P 500 upswing continued amid increasing credit market support. Risk-on, finally – and commodities are on fire again, with precious metals awaiting their time in the spotlight. That‘s the big picture view as… MORE>>
Feb 09, 2022 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
Feb 09, 2022 – More Profits Ahead – S&P 500 bulls took the opportunity yesterday amid mild credit market support. Looks like more fireworks are to come – the risk-on turn is merely starting. Not only financials, but also tech welcomed higher yields… MORE>>
Feb 08, 2022 – Rally Postponed – S&P 500 bulls missed the opportunity, but credit markets didn‘t turn down. Yesterday‘s pause is indicative of more chop ahead – the risk-on rally can‘t be declared yet as having run out of steam, no matter the crypto reversal of today. MORE>>
Feb 07, 2022 – Rally Time – S&P 500 refused to break below 4,450s, and junk bonds took off the lows as well. The bottom isn‘t in, but I‘m looking for a little reprieve next. The degree to which bonds were sold off vs. stocks, hints that… MORE>>
Feb 06, 2022 – Weekly Market Recap & Outlook – Friday’s strength in the S&P 500 evaporated after the bears seemingly couldn’t break through 4,450s on the Fed having an easier time tightening (apparently an easier time, must be said). MORE>>
Feb 04, 2022 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
Feb 04, 2022 – Smelling Blood – S&P 500 is grinding lower, and bonds concur. Risk-off posture and rising yields aren‘t tech‘s friend really, and the VIX is back to moving up. The odd thing is that the dollar wasn‘t well bid yesterday as could have been expected on rising rates… MORE>>
Feb 03, 2022 – Deer in the Headlights – S&P 500 is slowly getting under pressure, which is likely to culminate on weak non-farm payrolls tomorrow if Wednesday was any guide. Credit markets are pushing for higher yields as inflation data… MORE>>
Feb 03, 2022 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
Feb 02, 2022 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
Feb 02, 2022 – Getting Long in the Tooth – S&P 500 recoverd the opening setback at 4,500, and the low volume behind the upswing coupled with credit market reversal shows that the push towards 4,600 is next – but it would be fraught with internal vulnerability. It‘s that… MORE>>
Feb 01, 2022 – The Irresistible Upswing – S&P 500 pushed sharply higher, squeezing not only tech bears even if yields didn‘t move much – bonds actually ran into headwinds before the closing bell. With my 4,500 target reached, the door has opened to… MORE>>
Jan 31, 2022 – Working Out Great – S&P 500 left the 4,270s – 4,330s range with an upside breakout – after bonds finally caught some bid. While in risk-on posture, divergencies to stocks abound – any stock market advance would leave S&P 500 in… MORE>>
Jan 30, 2022 – Weekly Market Recap & Outlook – Last week was quite a volatile one in stocks, with the bulls finally enjoying the limelight till the closing bell on Friday – thanks to AAPL and Kashkari, of course. Does it mean the tide has turned, and… MORE>>
Jan 28, 2022 – Powell Put Coming – S&P 500 upswing attempt rejected, again – and credit markets didn‘t pause, with the dollar rush being truly ominous. Sign of both the Fed being taken seriously, and of being afraid (positioned for) the adverse tightening consequences. Bonds are… MORE>>
Jan 27, 2022 – One More Time – Wild FOMC day is over, and markets are repricing the perceived fresh hawkishness when there was none really. It‘s nice to start counting with 5 rate hikes this year when taper hasn‘t truly progressed much since it was announced last year. The accelerated taper… MORE>>
Jan 26, 2022 – Rushing Headlong – Glass half full call on S&P 500 yesterday was vindicated – this yet another reversal has the power to go on, and credit markets appear sniffing out the upcoming reprieve. While rates have justifiably risen, they have done so quite fast in Jan – time to calm down and… MORE>>
Jan 25, 2022 – Glass Half Empty or Half Full? – Tough call as select S&P 500 sectors came back to life, but credit markets are a bit inconclusive. Some more selling today before seeing a rebound on Wednesday‘s FOMC (I‘m leaning towards its message being… MORE>>
Jan 24, 2022 – Intraday Update for Stocks #2 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
Jan 24, 2022 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
Jan 24, 2022 – Relief Rally, Maybe? – S&P 500 closed below the 200-day moving average – unheard of. But similarly to the turn in credit markets on Wednesday, the bulls can surprise shortly as the differential between HYG and TLT with LQD is more pronounced now. The field is… MORE>>
Jan 21, 2022 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
Jan 21, 2022 – Still Pushing for More – S&P 500 gave up yet again the opening gains – the bear didn‘t pause even for a day or two. Buyers defeated during the first hours, and credit markets are once again leaning the bearish way. Risk-off rules even if long-dated Treasuries rose for a day. MORE>>
Jan 20, 2022 – Another One Bites the Dust – S&P 500 gave up opening gains that could have lasted longer – but the bear is still strong, and didn‘t pause even for a day or two. Defeated during the first hour, the sellers couldn‘t make much progress, and… MORE>>
Jan 19, 2022 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
Jan 19, 2022 – SPX Reversing Again – S&P 500 plunged to open the week – how fitting given the unfinished job in tech and Treasuries. The rising yields are all about betting on a really, really hawkish Fed – just how far are the calls for not 25, but 50bp hike this Mar? Inflation… MORE>>
Jan 18, 2022 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
Jan 18, 2022 – Fresh Profits to Ride – Yesterday’s extensive analysis remains up to date, and the overnight moves brought sharp increase in S&P 500, oil and crypto open profits while copper and precious metals posture continues improving. The inflation trades look like truly being the… MORE>>
Jan 17, 2022 – Oil Smashing Stocks – S&P 500 didn‘t like latest weak data releases, but finished well off intraday lows. This reversal though leaves quite something to be desired – and it‘s sectoral composition doesn‘t pass the smell test entirely either. Yields continued to… MORE>>
Jan 14, 2022 – Real Assets Trending – Apart from S&P 500 weakness and corresponding risk-off turn in bonds, not too much has happened. Not even Brainard could have helped much, and markets aren’t focused on geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Russia much yet. The tone of… MORE>>
Jan 13, 2022 – All Eyes on Copper – S&P 500 sold off only a little in the wake of CPI data – probably celebrating that the figure wasn‘t 8% but only 7%. As if that weren‘t uncomfortable already – and the Fed wants to field accelerated taper, and perhaps even four quarter-point rate hikes to tame it? MORE>>
Jan 12, 2022 – Riding Out Inflation in Style – S&P 500 refused further downside, tech caught fire, and credit markets staged a risk-on reversal. The bond upswing is the most important element – Powell‘s testimony wasn‘t able to ignite further rise in yields at the moment. MORE>>
Jan 11, 2022 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
Jan 11, 2022 – Elusive SPX Bottom – S&P 500 reversed sharp intraday losses, and credit markets moved in a decisive daily risk-on fashion. Turnarounds anywhere you look – HYG, TLT, XLK… but will that last? VIX having closed where it opened, points to still some unfinished job on the upside, meaning… MORE>>
Jan 10, 2022 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
Jan 10, 2022 – Stocks Meet Stagflation – S&P 500 indecisiveness Thursday gave way to another down day, and it doesn‘t look to be over in the least. Tech still isn‘t catching breadth enough – and that was my key condition of declaring a reprieve in the selling, if not a turnaround. MORE>>
Jan 07, 2022 – Honeymoon Is Over? – S&P 500 didn‘t shake off the post-FOMC minutes selloff in the least – and credit markets don‘t offer much short-term clarity either. Probably the brightest sign comes from the intraday reversal in financials higher – but tech still isn‘t catching breadth, which is key to… MORE>>
Jan 06, 2022 – Game of Chicken – FOMC minutes didn‘t reveal fresh hawkish tunes, but markets were caught off guard – unlike 3 weeks ago during the statement and press conference. It‘s as if S&P 500 and pretty much everything else woke up to the hawkish reality only now. MORE>>
Jan 05, 2022 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
Jan 05, 2022 – Staving Off Risk-Off – Another daily rise in yields forced S&P 500 down through tech weakness – the excessive selloff in growth didn‘t lead buyers to step in strongly. More base building in tech looks likely, but its top isn‘t in, and similarly to the late session HYG rebound, spells a day of… MORE>>
Jan 04, 2022 – Beneath the Surface, Rally – Very good S&P 500 entry to 2022, and the HYG intraday reversal is the sight to rejoice. In the sea of rising yields, both tech and value managed to do well – the market breadth keeps improving as not only the ratio of stocks trading above their 200-day moving averages shows. MORE>>
Jan 03, 2022 – Happy 2022 Entry – S&P 500 pared prior steep gains, but thanks to the credit markets message, I‘m not reading into Friday‘s weakness much. There is still more in this rally – value held better than tech, and high yield corporate bonds didn‘t really slide. MORE>>
Dec 30, 2021 – Celebrating Santa Challenge As Over – S&P 500 bulls stood their ground nicely, and the key sectors confirmed little willingness to turn the very short-term outlook more bearish than fits the little flag we‘re trading in currently – it‘s a bullish flag. MORE>>
Dec 29, 2021 – Santa Rally Challenge – S&P 500 feels like hanging by the fingernails – tech down and value retreating intraday. Correction of prior steep upswing is here – the bears will try some more, but I‘m not looking for them to get too far. MORE>>
Dec 28, 2021 – What‘s Not to Love Here – Broad S&P 500 rally is spilling over to precious metals and commodities – Santa Claus leaves no stone unturned, apparently. Not that yields or the dollar would move much yesterday – it‘s the… MORE>>
Dec 27, 2021 – As Good As It Gets – S&P 500 and risk-on assets continued rallying, pausing only before the close. Santa Claus delivered, and the final trading week of 2021 is here. With the dollar pausing and VIX at 18 again, we‘re certainly enjoying better days while… MORE>>
Dec 23, 2021 – Still More to Come – S&P 500 Santa rally goes on, and risk-on markets rejoice. What a nice sight of market breadth improvement, and confirmation from bonds. Financials and industrials are lagging, but real estate, healthcare and tech are humming smoothly. MORE>>
Dec 22, 2021 – When All Is Said and Done – S&P 500 duly rallied on broad strength, and credit markets performance bodes well for all risk-on assets. Now a little consolidation after yesterday‘s steep gains is ahead, but I don‘t see it as derailing future gains. MORE>>
Dec 21, 2021 – Santa Rally Time – S& P 500 made a first step towards the turnaround higher in the opening part of this week. Fading the rally is being countered, and yesterday‘s omicron policy response fears are being duly reversed. For the time being, Fed‘s liquidity is… MORE>>
Dec 20, 2021 – Dollar‘s Warning Signal – S&P 500 fading the FOMC rally went a bit too far – credit markets aren‘t panicking, so I doubt a fresh lasting downtrend is starting here. Chop, yes – the 4,720 area is proving a tough nut to crack,… MORE>>
Dec 17, 2021 – Fading the Rally – S&P 500 made intraday ATHs, but the upswing was sold into heavily – pre-FOMC positioning raising its head? Bonds didn‘t crater, and the risk-off move wasn‘t all too pronounced. Tech weakness was the key culprit, with value… MORE>>
Dec 16, 2021 – Great Santa Rally – S&P 500 with pretty much everything else surged as the Fed didn‘t turn too hawkish. Predictably. The day of reckoning is again postponed as the central bank effectively kicked the can down the road by not getting ahead of inflation. MORE>>
Dec 15, 2021 – Tough Choices Ahead – S&P 500 declined on poor PPI data, with financials virtually the only sector closing in the black. Rising yields and risk-off credit markets, that‘s the answer – markets are afraid of a more hawkish Fed than what they expect already. MORE>>
Dec 14, 2021 – Another Inflation Twist – S&P 500 gave up premarket gains, and closed on a weak note – driven by tech while value pared the intraday downswing somewhat. Market breadth still deteriorated, though – but credit markets didn‘t crater. Stocks look more cautious than… MORE>>
Dec 13, 2021 – On a Knife-Edge – S&P 500 recaptured 4,700s on little change in market breadth and ever so slowly coming back to life HYG. Credit markets made a risk-on move, but HYG isn‘t leading the charge on a medium-term basis in the least… MORE>>
Dec 10, 2021 – Catching More Than a Decent Bid – S&P 500 predictably relented, but the resilience of value provides a glimmer of hope. Quite a solid one as the HYG spurt to the downside didn‘t inspire a broader selloff, including in tech. Yesterday was your regular wait-and-see session of prepositioning… MORE>>
Dec 09, 2021 – Frontrunning CPI – S&P 500 rose as VIX retraced over half of its recent spike, but tech and value have a short-term tired look. Cyclicals turning down while utilities with staples barely budge in spite of a surge in yields? That looks really risk-off to me, and… MORE>>
Dec 08, 2021 – Fireworks to Go On? – S&P 500 sharply extended gains, and credit markets indicate some continuation even if by pure inertia. A trend in place, stays in place until reversed – and yesterday‘s upswing was… MORE>>
Dec 07, 2021 – Turning the Corner in Style – S&P 500 bulls delivered, and the revival in risk-on is increasingly getting legs as HYG rebounded sharply. The sharply increasing participation is counterbalanced by still compressing yield curve, but yields finally rose yesterday. MORE>>
Dec 06, 2021 – Topping Process Roadmap – S&P 500 bulls missed a good opportunity to take prices higher in spite of the sharp medim-term deterioration essentially since the taper announcement. It‘s the Fed and not Omicron as I told you on Wednesday, but… MORE>>
Dec 03, 2021 – Bonds Didn‘t Disappoint – S&P 500 sharply rebounded, and signs are it has legs. My key risk-on indicator to watch yesterday, HYG, turned up really strongly. No problem that the dollar didn‘t decline, it‘s enough that financials and energy caught some breath. We‘re turning to… MORE>>
Dec 02, 2021 – Bridge Too Far – S&P 500 gave up sharp intraday gains on the first Omicron patient in CA. Corona packing punch still, and sending TLT far above yesterday‘s highs while the dollar remained unchanged. That‘s as… MORE>>
Dec 01, 2021 – It‘s the Fed, Not Omicron – S&P 500 plunged on accelerated tapering intentions, and much of the risk-on sectors and commodities followed – even precious metals declined a little in sympathy. But where is the larger reasoning? If the Fed truly… MORE>>
Nov 30, 2021 – Feeling the Quickly Changing Pulse – S&P 500 rebound still ran into selling pressure before the close – the bulls lost momentum however well the government and Fed‘s words were received. Credit markets hold the key – specifically,… MORE>>
Nov 29, 2021 – Day That Changed the World? – S&P 500 and pretty much everything apart from Treasuries and safe haven plays down precipitously, with panic hitting oil the hardest. The post Thanksgiving session turned out not so light volume one, but… MORE>>
Nov 26, 2021 – Fresh Fears Hitting – New corona variant fears hit the airwaves, and markets are selling off hard. We can look forward for a light volume and volatile session today – S&P 500 downswing will likely be cushioned by the tech, but high beta plays will be very subdued. Commodities … MORE>>
Nov 25, 2021 – Thanksgiving Update for Stocks, PMs, Oil, Copper and Cryptos – Happy Thanksgiving to all of your celebrating! May you enjoy the festive time in peace and harmony – and if you don’t celebrate it, enjoy the extra time off, away from the markets, with your closest ones. Here comes a brief update on the markets before Monday’s regular analysis. MORE>>
Nov 24, 2021 – Waking Up the Giants – S&P 500 recovered from session lows, and is likely to keep chopping around in a tight range today. Tech found solid footing in spite of sharply rising yields, which value (finally) embraced with open arms. The riskier end of credit markets doesn‘t yet… MORE>>
Nov 23, 2021 – Betting on Hawkish Fed – S&P 500 reversed from fresh ATHs as spiking yields sent tech packing. Value didn‘t soar, but held up considerably better – still, stock bulls are getting on the defensive. Markets have interpreted the Powell nomination as… MORE>>
Nov 22, 2021 – Best Pick for Corona Woes – S&P 500 stumbled as value plunged – corona fears are back as Austria lockdown might very well be followed soon by Germany. The mood on the continent is souring, and coupled with accelerating German inflation data, helping to… MORE>>
Nov 19, 2021 – The Wild Card Is Back – S&P 500 rose, once again driven by tech and not value. That‘s still defensive, mirroring the weak credit markets posture. While waiting for bonds to turn – not that there wouldn‘t be an optimistic HYG open yesterday – the Austria and… MORE>>
Nov 18, 2021 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
Nov 18, 2021 – Like Clockwork – S&P 500 took a little breather, and sideways trading with a bullish slant goes on unchecked. Credit markets have partially turned, and I‘m looking for some risk appetite returning to HYG and VTV. Any modest improvement in market breadth would… MORE>>
Nov 17, 2021 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
Nov 17, 2021 – Till the Dollar Yields – S&P 500 staged a very risk-off rally, not entirely supported by bonds. Value declined, not reflecting rising yields. Paring back recent gains on a very modest basis was palpable in financials and real estate, while… MORE>>
Nov 16, 2021 – The Elephant in the Room – S&P 500 is starting to run into a setback even if VIX doesn‘t reveal that fully. Credit markets going from weakness to weakness spells more short-term woes for stocks – a shallow downswing that feels (and is) a… MORE>>
Nov 15, 2021 – Getting Real on PMs and Inflation – S&P 500 indeed rose but bond markets couldn‘t keep the encouraging opening gains. Can stocks still continue rallying? They look to be setting up for one more downleg of maximum the immediately predecing magnitude, which means… MORE>>
Nov 12, 2021 – Red Hot and Running – S&P 500 really went through the brief pause in selling, but credit markets haven‘t stopped really. Their weakness continues, but is hitting value a tad harder than tech. Together with VIX turning south, that‘s one more sign why… MORE>>
Nov 11, 2021 – Focus on the Real Gains – S&P 500 declined, and not enough buyers arrived in my view. Still, we‘re likely to see a brief pause in selling, and that‘s giving the bulls a chance. Credit markets were a bit too beaten down by the… MORE>>
Nov 10, 2021 – Profiting on Hot Inflation – S&P 500 pause finally went from sideways to down, and might not be over yet. Credit markets aren‘t nearly totally weak – tech simply had to pause, so did semiconductors, and the Tesla downswing… MORE>>
Nov 09, 2021 – Great Profitable Runs – S&P 500 pause goes on, and bonds support more of it to come. Tech keeps thus far the high ground gained, but value is showing signs of very short-term weakness – and yields haven‘t… MORE>>
Nov 08, 2021 – Calling the Precious Metals Bull – S&P 500 paused to a degree, but bonds didn‘t – we‘re far from a peak. That though doesn‘t mean a brief correction (having a proper look at the chart, sideways consolidation not reaching more than a precious couple of percentage points down) won‘t… MORE>>
Nov 05, 2021 – Leading the Taper Run – No S&P 500 pause to speak of – bonds support the buying pressure. The broad turn to risk-on has value holding up relatively well while tech remains in the driver‘s seat. The daily weakness in financials looks… MORE>>
Nov 04, 2021 – Where‘s the Beef? – S&P 500 embraced the dovish taper – $10bn a month pace gives the Fed quite a breathing room without having to revisit the decision unless markets force it to. The taper is as dovish as… MORE>>
Nov 03, 2021 – Lip Service to Inflation, Again – S&P 500 quick downswing attempt indeed didn‘t come – fresh highs were confirmed by bonds. Even if just on a daily basis, that‘s where the bias is – long stocks still, but with a wary eye as Treasuries and corporate bonds need to… MORE>>
Nov 02, 2021 – Fed Game Plan – S&P 500 hesitation against weakening bonds – what gives? The yield curve keeps flattening, but long-dated Treasury yields seem again on the verge of another upswing, which hasn‘t propped up the dollar yesterday much. The only fly in the ointment of… MORE>>
Nov 01, 2021 – Don‘t Fear Risk-Off – Not confirmed by bonds, the S&P 500 advances regardless – the daily yields retreat is powering tech while value goes nowhere. Higher beta sectors such as financials are sputtering, revealing the defensive nature of… MORE>>
Oct 29, 2021 – Wild Choppy Moves – One-sided S&P 500 session, perhaps a bit too much – the bulls are likely to face issues extending gains when VIX is examined. The stock market sentiment remains mixed, and one could easily be pardoned for… MORE>>
Oct 28, 2021 – This Is When Risk-On Returns – Uneventful S&P 500 session, seemingly – and then the selling came. 4,550 barely held and the bond markets aren‘t looking favorable to the bulls. Ultimately, Treasury traders had the last word, snuffing… MORE>>
Oct 28, 2021 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
Oct 27, 2021 – The Dollar Dog That Doesn‘t Bark – S&P 500 reversed intraday just as bonds did – but broader sectoral weakness is missing. Tech didn‘t rise as yields retreated, and value held up relatively well. Let alone financials or real estate – the latter would… MORE>>
Oct 26, 2021 – Riding the Bullish Revival – S&P 500 brief pause is over – nodding to the upswing, credit markets have turned to risk-on, and VIX is going precisely nowhere, just hanging around the 15 level. Such volatility values are conducive to the stock market upswing continuation, and given no real change to the… MORE>>
Oct 25, 2021 – Pause Before the Run – S&P 500 didn‘t decline much in spite of credit markets favoring a bigger daily setback – is the pendulum about to swing the other way then? It probably is, but it would take a while as I would like to see… MORE>>
Oct 22, 2021 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
Oct 22, 2021 – Against Bond Market Odds – Such was the S&P 500 correction, how did you like it? The whiff of risk-off that I was looking for yesterday, was a very shallow one in stocks, and much deeper in real assets. What‘s remarkable about the… MORE>>
Oct 21, 2021 – Whiff of Risk-Off Next – S&P 500 indeed overcame 4,520, but wavered at the same time – tech didn‘t rise. Volatility though remained meek, inching ever closer to 15, and the option traders also look a bit too complacent at the moment. MORE>>
Oct 20, 2021 – Ever More Risk-On – S&P 500 keeps grinding higher, beyond 4,520 towards fresh ATHs. The VIX is approaching 15, and that means some volatility is likely to return as the current lull won‘t last indefinitely. Yields are steadily rising again,… MORE>>
Oct 19, 2021 – Animal Spirits Returning – S&P 500 prompt recovery confirms my bullish run thesis – above 4,520, and given my Feb announced year end target of 4,700, fresh ATHs are approaching. Get ready though for… MORE>>
Oct 18, 2021 – Inflation Peaked Again, Right? – S&P 500 upswing continues, and is dealing with the 4,470 resistance – but the credit markets don‘t confirm. Still, that‘s rather a sign of stock market strength than of pending doom. The break back above the 50-day moving average has very good odds of sticking, and the sectoral performance… MORE>>
Oct 15, 2021 – Key Market Shift Confirmed – S&P 500 bulls didn‘t look back, and the credit markets spurt at close confirmed. The VIX is getting serious about reaching for early Sep lows, and it shows in the sharp upside reversal of value. The tech upswing hasn‘t been sold into either, and… MORE>>
Oct 15, 2021 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
Oct 14, 2021 – No Qualms, No Prisoners – Totally not transitory inflation readings didn‘t sink S&P 500 – stocks recovered, and are likely to spend trading today near 4,400. Credit markets didn‘t disappoint after all, but the sectoral composition… MORE>>
Oct 13, 2021 – Punch Bowl Removal – S&P 500 intraday upswing fizzled out in spite of credit markets remaining mildly conducive. But tech just couldn‘t and couldn‘t rise, and value remained weak throughout as well. VIX… MORE>>
Oct 12, 2021 – S&P 500 Uphill Battle – S&P 500 bulls missed a good opportunity, and credit markets close doesn‘t add to bullish sentiment. High yield corporate bonds led the selling in what turned out a strong risk-off day in debt. Light volume, holiday days… MORE>>
Oct 12, 2021 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
Oct 11, 2021 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
Oct 11, 2021 – Flirting with Fed Policy Mistake – S&P 500 didn‘t like the underwhelming NFPs, but didn‘t collapse either. Orderly reaction to a bad number powerful enough to postpone Fed‘s Nov taper, to be followed by celebration of continued monetary support, or… MORE>>
Oct 08, 2021 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
Oct 08, 2021 – Wall of Worry Meets NFPs – S&P 500 reached my target, and then folded like a cheap suit – into an overnight correction, without attempting to overcome 4,420. As much as the prior advance was broad based, so was the retreat. MORE>>
Oct 07, 2021 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
Oct 07, 2021 – Risk-On Turnaround – S&P 500 – done declining, not spooked by bearish credit market open, stocks reversed and rallied into the finishing line. HYG almost managed to close the opening, exhaustion gap. On such days,… MORE>>
Oct 06, 2021 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
Oct 06, 2021 – Getting Cornered – S&P 500 rally fizzled out overnight as stagflation worries are gaining firmer ground. The focus shifted to more Chinese property developers, and German factory orders drop was larger than expected – and at the same time, both inflation and inflation expectations keep rising. MORE>>
Oct 05, 2021 – Between a Rock and a Hard Place – S&P 500 stopped consolidating in the 4,340s shortly after the open, and went largely one way since – except for the run up to the closing bell, which I used to grab short profits off the table. MORE>>
Oct 04, 2021 – Intraday Update for Stocks #3 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
Oct 04, 2021 – Intraday Update for Stocks #2 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
Oct 04, 2021 – Waiting For Inflation to Hit – S&P 500 didn‘t make it to the overnight lows during the regular session, and almost fully reversed Thursday‘s slide. After an intraday tug of war, the credit markets… MORE>>
Oct 04, 2021 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
Oct 01, 2021 – Sharp Market Turns Not To Miss – S&P 500 steeply declined, yet the credit markets offered a glimmer of hope to suck in the bulls – and thus far, the premarket bounce is sticking. The fact that buying the dip didn‘t work in the… MORE>>
Sep 30, 2021 – Intraday Update for Stocks #2 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
Sep 30, 2021 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
Sep 30, 2021 – Inflation Waking Up Bonds – S&P 500 bulls didn‘t make much progress even though the credit markets initially favored the daily rebound to stick. Bouncing between the daily highs and lows, the 500-strong index… MORE>>
Sep 29, 2021 – Intraday Update for Stocks #2 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
Sep 29, 2021 – Wishing Away Inflation – S&P 500 bears did indeed move, and the dip wasn‘t much bought. VIX with its prominent upper knot may not have said the last word yet, but a brief… MORE>>
Sep 29, 2021 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
Sep 28, 2021 – Gauntlet to the Fed – S&P 500 was unable to sustain intraday gains, and both VIX and volume show the bears want to move. Arguably, the key market to watch, are the Treasuries – the 10-year yield… MORE>>
Sep 27, 2021 – Reflation vs. Stagflation – S&P 500 didn‘t give in to the opening weakness, and eked out minor gains. There was no selling into the close either – the table looks set for the muddle through to… MORE>>
Sep 24, 2021 – Deflationary Winds Howling – Without looking back, S&P 500 rallied in what feels as a short squeeze in ongoing risk-off environment. Daily rise in yields was not only unable to propel the dollar, but resulted in a much higher upswing in tech than value stocks – and that‘s a little fishy, especially when… MORE>>
Sep 23, 2021 – So Much for Hawkish Fed – So long – better said (as if it did apply in the first place). If June FOMC showed us anything, it was the power of (cheap) talk. We‘ve gone a long way since inflation‘s (getting out of hand) existence was acknowledged – yesterday, we were treated to very aggressive… MORE>>
Sep 22, 2021 – Rescued by the Fed Again? – S&P 500 recovered only to dive again – carving out a base? The bulls are attempting to, but neither value, nor tech, nor the credit markets are convincing. The dust is settling though, and the bears are equally in need of a fresh reason to sell – the intraday tug of war… MORE>>
Sep 21, 2021 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
Sep 21, 2021 – Time to Buy the Dip? – S&P 500 dived, yet the slide was bought before the closing bell. Does the long lower knot mean the selling is over? It‘s too early to say as following similar momentuous days, it takes 1-3 days for the dust to clear usually. The selling pressure might… MORE>>
Sep 20, 2021 – Lights Flashing Red – S&P 500 gave in to weakness, shifting the balance of power to the bears – this close at the 50-day moving average doesn‘t look to be as appealing as the prior ones, buy the dip isn‘t likely to work this time around. Yes, I‘m… MORE>>
Sep 20, 2021 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
Sep 17, 2021 – Shaking Off the Taper Blues – S&P 500 recovered from the selling at open, but the picture is hardly one of universal strength. Tech rose while value erased half of the intraday decline, and high yield… MORE>>
Sep 16, 2021 – False Dawn or Not – S&P 500 rose after an initial consolidation, and its advance was broad based. Modest dollar weakness accompanied by a daily increase in yields powered value and tech alike as the… MORE>>
Sep 15, 2021 – Fabled September Storms – S&P 500 faded the opening upswing, breaking below Monday‘s lows. High yield corporate bonds didn‘t surprise by at least closing unchanged, and neither did the… MORE>>
Sep 14, 2021 – Tame Inflation and the Risk-On Fuse – Stocks and credit markets sent conflicting messages – weakness in the S&P 500 wasn‘t matched by bonds losing ground. Though elevated by recent standards, VIX doesn‘t look to be in the appetite for further sustained gains, which would… MORE>>
Sep 13, 2021 – Where Are the Fireworks? – Stocks and credit markets gave up promising opening gains, and it was only commodities that had a really good day. Seems like the beneficiary of inflation would be indeed real assets as I had been… MORE>>
Sep 10, 2021 – Risk On Is Back! – S&P 500 decline was at odds with the credit markets doing fine yesterday – it looks to me the bears mustered all the strength they could. And that wasn‘t too… MORE>>
Sep 09, 2021 – Retreating Bears and Dollar Struggles – S&P 500 decline leaves something to be desired – conviction of the bears. Credit markets and the dollar have sent not so subtle signs that we‘re in… MORE>>
Sep 08, 2021 – September Smackdown Coming Next? – S&P 500 declined, with tech holding up best – the volatility spike is here as real economy deceleration is joined by Evergrande fears. Both paper and real assets… MORE>>
Sep 07, 2021 – Partying On Meets USD Upswing – S&P 500 didn‘t get hammered on the NFPs miss – stocks did reasonably well, saved by the daily rush into tech. Volatility didn‘t spike throughout the week at all, and… MORE>>
Sep 03, 2021 – Feeling the Heat of Slowing Economy – S&P 500 got ahead of itself early in the session, and corrected somewhat. Credit markets though didn‘t paint a picture of caution – it‘s risk on there. VIX didn‘t make much progress rising or… MORE>>
Sep 02, 2021 – What‘s Not to Love About Crypto Fireworks – Another weak selling attempt in stocks – are these setting up for tomorrow‘s NFPs volatility? It sure appears so, but buy the dip mentality looks likely to emerge victorious. The current period of low VIX will… MORE>>
Sep 01, 2021 – We‘re Not Done Yet – Creeping deterioration gave way to early selling that took S&P 500 to 4,515, but no further. The bears fumbled again, and credit markets don‘t look like giving them another… MORE>>
Aug 31, 2021 – Dialing Back the Euphoria – Fireworks largely continued yesterday. In stocks, it must be said – but the picture isn‘t one of universal strength as tech and value diverged again. As VIX is trading near the lower end of its recent spectrum, the bulls better… MORE>>
Aug 30, 2021 – Profiting From Financial Stress Abating – Powell didn‘t disappoint… Wall Street, that is. The hazy taper silhouette remains just that, and his speech brought more implicit assurances that any dreaded hawkish turn, which was what the markets… MORE>>
Aug 27, 2021 – Taper Shock That Never Was – Yes, more paring the risk-on bets came yesterday, indiscriminately taking down stocks (tech and value alike), oil and copper. The overall shape of the consolidation in real assets… MORE>>
Aug 26, 2021 – Time to Get Selective – Decreasing volatility gives way to rising one, but don‘t look for it to happen just today. More paring the risk-on bets seems the order of the day as even the dollar and nominal yields went down together. Gentle signs of… MORE>>
Aug 25, 2021 – Jackson Hole Positioning – More optimistic follow through yesterday brought additional gains to commodities while stocks and gold treaded water. Just as I wrote yesterday, the celebrations of the taper tough talk being just talk, were a little too powerful, and at least a… MORE>>
Aug 24, 2021 – Best Real Assets to Catch Fire Now – Friday‘s optimism carried over to Monday, and far from only in stocks. Pendulum swinging the taper tough talk being just talk, worked powerfully to lift the beaten commodities – and unlike on Friday, oil joined in. The celebrations… MORE>>
Aug 23, 2021 – U-Turn and Quite for Real – What doesn‘t go down, must go up? With a little Kaplan help, sideways S&P 500 trading well above 4,370 – 4,375 area spurted higher as the taper prospects rebalancing worked its magic. As I had been writing thoughout the week and well before, mathematics of growing deficits… MORE>>
Aug 20, 2021 – Making the Fed Blink – Sea of red in stocks, reversed shortly after the open – is the worst behind? Remembering my Tuesday’s words bringing up again downside risk (these have been growing for quite a few days before already), I don‘t… MORE>>
Aug 19, 2021 – Taper Squeeze Is On! – Fed minutes as the straw to break the camel‘s back? This time, they weren‘t as uneventful as so often before, making the markets look for taper to indeed come – and sooner than expected. Quite a courageous proposition given that commercial bank credit creation… MORE>>
Aug 18, 2021 – Taper Tantrum a Week Before Jackson Hole – Stocks have recovered off the intraday lows yesterday, in what is one of the less severe battles of the unfolding taper tantrum – commodities such as copper and oil bear the brunt thereof, which is perfectly understandable given the slowdown in economic expansion. MORE>>
Aug 17, 2021 – Between a Rock and a Hard Place – No, it‘s not about stocks, however well they hang on to recent gains. ATHs hit again amid recovering corporate credit markets, with both tech and value contributing. Value though was looking more vulnerable… MORE>>
Aug 16, 2021 – The Long Shadow Over Reflation Trades – Consumer confidence undershoot didn‘t bring down stocks as the retreat in yields (away from the reflation trades) didn‘t spook value stocks, and only lifted tech. It‘s true that XLK isn‘t firing on all cylinders, and the semiconductors‘ lag is just as concerning as Russell 2000 underperformance – so much for… MORE>>
Aug 13, 2021 – Fresh Highs to Meet Fresh Volatility – Inflationary pressures building up aren‘t spooking the markets, there is no forcing the Fed‘s hand through rising yields. The bond vigilantes seem a distant memory as yields are trading well below their historical band, stunningly low given… MORE>>
Aug 12, 2021 – As Pressure on the Fed to Act Grows… – CPI banished the specter of rising inflation to the markets, coming in not too hot, not too cold. Still, the signs pointing to broadening the base of price increases are hard to miss, which today‘s PPI would likely and did illustrate. The other key headline event was… MORE>>
Aug 12, 2021 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
Aug 11, 2021 – CPI Fuel and the Smoldering Inflation Fire – For all the CPI hoopla, remember that this is a monthly figure – all data tend to fluctuate, especially those heavily massaged ones (substitution, hedonistic adjustments, owners‘equivalent rent coupled with exclusion of… MORE>>
Aug 10, 2021 – Inflation Trades – Rebounding or Sinking – Yesterday‘s S&P 500 downswing was driven by tech, and it wasn‘t the heavyweights that pulled it down. Yes, Nasdaq is in… MORE>>
Aug 09, 2021 – Gold and Silver Massacre to Continue? – The tightly tracking each other indices – S&P 500 and Nasdaq – are likely to part ways to a degree soon. As Treasury yields made a double bottom, look for… MORE>>
Aug 09, 2021 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
Aug 06, 2021 – Risk-on Friday and NFPs – Again, today’s report will be way shorter than usual, and focus only on select charts so as to drive position details of all the five publications. MORE>>
Aug 05, 2021 – More Chop Before NFPs, Or Not? – Again, today’s report will be way shorter than usual, and focus only on select charts so as to drive position details of all the five publications. MORE>>
Aug 04, 2021 – Risk-Off Moves Returning – In line with the pressing circumstances I told you about on Jul 29 at my site, today’s report will again have to be way shorter than usual, and focus on… MORE>>
Aug 03, 2021 – Oil – the Odd One Out? – In line with the pressing circumstances I told you about on Jul 29 at my site, today’s report will have to be way shorter than usual, and focus on… MORE>>
Aug 02, 2021 – Best Assets to Profit Now On – S&P 500 is in consolidation mode, underpinned by the Fed liquidity inflows. The mid-July dip has been readily bought, and the ascent‘s steepness bodes well for the bulls. No need to be spooked by the tech weakness or valuations… MORE>>
Jul 06, 2021 – The Rise of Precious Metals and Commodities – S&P 500 closed Friday on a strong note, and as the holiday-shortened week is usually accompanied by positive seasonality, it would be reasonable to expect extension of gains. Is therre any show stopper at the moment? MORE>>
Jul 02, 2021 – Roaring Comeback of Reflation and Commodities – S&P 500 broadening leadership and fresh reflationary ATHs are here – the FOMC „tightening“ hit notwithstanding. Energy, financials and industrials I discussed yesterday and before, were… MORE>>
Jul 01, 2021 – Stocks Up But Look At Metals and Oil – S&P 500 is again at new highs, but driven by value this time. Not that tech would disappoint, but heavyweights paused. Credit markets remained… MORE>>
Jun 30, 2021 – High Returns in Real Assets and Tech – S&P 500 at new highs, is the predictable daily refrain almost. Risk-on credit markets and not so risk-on stock market sectoral overview, aren‘t an obstacle as tech can be depended upon for the delivery of gains. The degree of… MORE>>
Jun 29, 2021 – The Run Ignoring Inflation – S&P 500 reached new highs powered by technology, even as value or Russell 2000 took a daily breather. With VIX going nowhere, and the put/call ratio turning complacent, the path of least resistance remains higher, and not even… MORE>>
Jun 28, 2021 – Stock ATHs, Hesitant Metals and Simmering Inflation – S&P 500 keeps powering to new highs, and little wonder – thanks to the infrastructure stimulus euphoria. The return of (at least some) strength into value stocks at expense of… MORE>>
Jun 25, 2021 – Jumping the Fed Tightening Ship – S&P 500 powered higher after the daily pause, yet its solid gains don‘t have such a risk-on feel as the credit markets do. Depending on tech heavyweights for… MORE>>
Jun 24, 2021 – Stocks Love the Back and Forth with the Fed – S&P 500 declined, but the risk-off move looks exaggerated, of base building before another upswing flavor – just as I wrote in yesterday‘s summary. VIX is trending down again, and… MORE>>
Jun 23, 202 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
Jun 23, 2021 – Dialing Back the Fed Fears for Now – S&P 500 extended gains as the Powell testimony calmed the markets that the punch bowl isn‘t going away „any day now“ – that urgent… MORE>>
Jun 22, 2021 – Calling the Fed‘s Bluff – S&P 500 risk-on trading yesterday confirmed that it would have indeed been too early to write off value stocks. Financials, energy sprang higher, accompanied by… MORE>>
Jun 21, 2021 – Fed Didn‘t Tame Inflation – As resilient as it had been before Wednesday, S&P 500 met selling pressure on Friday, including the best performing tech sector. Bullard‘s comments on the „inflation surprise“ and first rate hike before 2022 is over – are they… MORE>>
Jun 17, 2021 – FOMC Surprise Takeaways – The Fed didn‘t play ostrich on inflation, but didn‘t take action either. While acknowledging that 2021 inflation would come at 3.4%, it hinted at 2 rate hikes before 2023 is over – and didn‘t mention… MORE>>
Jun 16, 2021 – Inflation Tipping Point – S&P 500 hasn‘t extended Monday‘s gains, continuing to trade in a cautious, tight range. Not that it would be driven by Treasury yields that much on a daily basis – the tech breather was one day delayed, but… MORE>>
Jun 14, 2021 – Why Inflation Trades Have Further to Run – S&P 500 ran out of steam shortly after Friday‘s open, yet caught fire before the close. The sectoral disbalance driven by retreating yields went on, and tech remains still the… MORE>>
Jun 11, 2021 – Inflation Bets – Squaring or Not – S&P 500 shook off another record making inflation reading, and bond markets couldn‘t be happier. Volatility is back down, but the option traders… MORE>>
Jun 10, 2021 – Inflation Storm Coming – S&P 500 going nowhere, repelling selling pressure concentrated to value as tech mostly defended the daily ground – that‘s a fair… MORE>>
Jun 09, 2021 – Risk Off Markets, Seriously? – S&P 500 hard at work erasing that early bear raid, but the bulls managed to stage a comeback. Yet, the risk off atmosphere is palpable in bonds, rallying as if no inflation were on the horizon. Or as if…. MORE>>
Jun 08, 2021 – One Last Hooray Before CPI? – S&P 500 downswing was rejected but did it need to happen in the first place? Squaring the bets before Thursday‘s CPI doesn‘t appear to be underway – the risk-on sentiment reigns still in the credit markets, but… MORE>>
Jun 07, 2021 – Where Next in the Taper Drama – S&P 500 duly rose on the little weaker than expected non-farm payrolls as the taper theme (start of discussions moving to serious contemplation) got dialed back. The Fed‘s forward guidance… MORE>>
Jun 04, 2021 – Another Taper Mirage Comes and Goes – S&P 500 succumbed to the bears – partially. The ADP figures lifted the dollar and put Treasury yields under pressure, which equals encouraging speculation that taper is coming. Rest assured,…. MORE>>
Jun 03, 2021 – When Markets Get Scared and Reverse – S&P 500 wasted another good opportunity to rise – one where the credit markets were largely aligned. Is it a sign of upcoming tremors that… MORE>>
Jun 02, 2021 – Reversals, Inflation, and Scares of Any Kind – S&P 500 stumbled in its upward run again, but has it been decisively so? VIX has risen, the put/call ratio as well – but that‘s… MORE>>
Jun 01, 2021 – No More Bloodbath – Beyond Cryptos – S&P 500 again rejected within sight of ATHs – again, but not totally convincingly. Especially the credit markets‘ mixed picture leans… MORE>>
May 28, 2021 – Buy the Dip, Again?! – S&P 500 attempted a breakout, but retreated. Is that a reversal, or proof of more pressure building up? Much starker move… MORE>>
May 27, 2021 – Hanging by a Proverbial Thread – S&P 500 in a tight range with bearish undertones in the credit markets – but where is the decline? Given the ample Fed support, don‘t count on… MORE>>
May 26, 2021 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
May 26, 2021 – Eerily Serene Risk-off Markets – S&P 500 had a mixed day, and the credit market underlines the shift to risk-off. Halfway shift, to be precise – the high yield corporate bonds… MORE>>
May 25, 2021 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
May 25, 2021 – Option Traders Are a Bit Too Calm Again – S&P 500 rose once again, and the slight retreat before the close isn‘t an issue in light of constructive credit markets. Tech, communications,… MORE>>
May 24, 2021 – Inflation Easing, Now What? – S&P 500 refused to keep early gains, and reversed back into no man‘s land – on little convincing volume. For now, we remain chopping below my 4,180s level, conquering which… MORE>>
May 21, 2021 – Tug of War and Its Profitable Resolution – S&P 500 bid is improving in breadth, and the fake moves rich consolidation‘s lows are getting more distant. And they are likely to stay that way as the market… MORE>>
May 20, 2021 – Markets Rising from the Ashes – S&P 500 caught a partial bid yesterday, enough to stave off the break of prior Wednesday‘s lows. All isn‘t fine under the surface though as yet another Fed trial baloon… MORE>>
May 19, 2021 – Bug in Search of Windshield – S&P 500 lackluster performance gave way to heavy selling right before the close, when the wheels came simultaneously off the stock and corporate bond market just as the prior Wednesday. This time though,… MORE>>
May 18, 2021 – Credit Market Wheels in Danger of Coming Off? – SPX backing and filling worthy of Monday‘s session – with important rotations below the surface. Namely, tech and Nasdaq… MORE>>
May 17, 2021 – Same Old Song and Dance – Almost – Pendulum keeps swinging back into the S&P 500 bullish camp, as the Nasdaq rebound was mightily aided by rising long-dated Treasuries while value couldn‘t care less about… MORE>>
May 14, 2021 – Is the Selling Madness About Over? – The inflation scare amplified by CPI data has died down yesterday a little. Buying returned into the S&P 500, lifting Nasdaq ever so little too. VIX steeply rejected… MORE>>
May 13, 2021 – Everything Going Down the Inflation Drain? – The inflation scare amplified by CPI data caught the mainstream off guard, and the S&P 500 made no attempt at the opening gap. Both… MORE>>
May 12, 2021 – Bulls Coming to Terms with Inflation – Bulls had to fight hard to recover from intraday downside, and hadn‘t managed to close the menacing gap at the open. MORE>>
May 11, 2021 – Bulls Getting Caught in the Whirlwind – Seemingly uneventful and tight range day in S&P 500 gave way to extraordinary selling once the 4,220 intraday support broke – extraordinary by… MORE>>
May 10, 2021 – What‘s Not To Love About These Great Bull Runs? – A bit of selling at the open, and off to new highs – the S&P 500 bulls are taking no prisoners. The long recent… MORE>>
May 07, 2021 – Ready for More Hot Gold and Stocks Profits – One final attempt to go down before reversing to strong gains all the way to the closing bell – the S&P 500 returned to… MORE>>
May 06, 2021 – Stocks and Gold – Hot and Hotter – The rebound off Tuesday‘s lows continued semisuccessfully yesterday – further upside was rejected in spite of… MORE>>
May 05, 2021 – Janet Smoke and Mirrors – Weak overnight trading gave way to tepid European session with a predictable buying interest at the U.S. open – which fizzled out though… MORE>>
May 04, 2021 – Intraday Update for Stocks #3 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
May 04, 2021 – SPX Correction Arriving or Not? – One more day of upside rejection in S&P 500, in what is now quite a long stretch of prices going mostly sideways. MORE>>
May 04, 2021 – Intraday Update for Stocks #2 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
May 04, 2021 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
May 03, 2021 – Taper Smoke and Mirrors – Once in a while, stocks closed in red – is that a reversal or the most the bears could hope for these days? MORE>>
Apr 30, 2021 – One More Day of Hesitation? – Stocks reached for new ATHs but got slammed down only to recover next. VIX doesn‘t provide… MORE>>
Apr 29, 2021 – Enough Consolidation Already! – Stocks are readying another push higher, and not just on the heels of the still accomodative Fed. The Fed won‘t simply… MORE>>
Apr 28, 2021 – Calm Down, It‘s a Shallow Gold Correction – Stocks keep pushing higher after a day of indecision yesterday, and the signals are largely still very… MORE>>
Apr 27, 2021 – The Inflation Tsunami About to Hit – Stocks went on to push higher yesterday – the pressure is building. Trends in place since… MORE>>
Apr 26, 2021 – No Upsetting the Apple Cart in Stocks or Gold – The tax hike proposal shock is over, and S&P 500 took again on the ATHs on Friday. Buying pressure throughout the day… MORE>>
Apr 23, 2021 – The Tax Plan to Slay the Stock Bull? – A day like almost any other – S&P 500 about to take again on the ATHs until the capital gains tax hike proposal came, shaving off 50 points in stocks within an hour. MORE>>
Apr 22, 2021 – SPX Short Squeeze – Here Or Not? – S&P 500 turned around at the open, and didn‘t look back. Is the selling over, have the markets turned the corner? Buy the dip looks to… MORE>>
Apr 21, 2021 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
Apr 21, 2021 – Gold Unleashed – Rip Your Face Off Rally Is Here – S&P 500 had another day in the the red, and buy the dippers might be tempted to say enough is enough – but I am not convinced yet. MORE>>
Apr 20, 2021 – Gold Reversal? Have No Fear! – S&P 500 closed in the the red, vindicating my bearish sentiment going into Monday‘s session. And as I have tweeted…. MORE>>
Apr 19, 2021 – Pausing Stocks and Gold Fireworks – The S&P 500 went back to relentless rallying on Friday, yet the selling wave before the close looks to indicate… MORE>>
Apr 16, 2021 – Gold Fireworks Doubt the Official Inflation Story – The S&P 500 red candle and then some – erased in a day, that‘s what you get with the Fed always having your back. The staircase climb… MORE>>
Apr 15, 2021 – Stocks, Gold and Commodities Meet the Fed – S&P 500 in the red – unprecedented. Don‘t pin your hopes too high for a (sharp) correction though. Yes, this time stocks listened to the… MORE>>
Apr 14, 2021 – New Day, New ATHs with Gold in the Wings – S&P 500 went up yet again yesterday, and the corporate credit markets‘ non-confirmation quite resolved itself. While the same can‘t be said about… MORE>>
Apr 14, 2021 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
Apr 13, 2021 – Still a Bullish Fever in Stocks? – S&P 500 went nowhere yesterday – just like the prior Monday, heavy buying into Friday‘s close met no follow-up the day after. After almost… MORE>>
Apr 13, 2021 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
Apr 12, 2021 – Stocks or Gold – Which Is in the Catbird Seat? – S&P 500 spurted higher after prior days of tiny gains. Still lining up the upper border of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart, stocks keep… MORE>>
Apr 09, 2021 – The Curious Staircase Rally in Stocks – Another day of tiny S&P 500 gains defying gravity, boosted by overnight price action. Well, liquidity overpowering junk corporate bonds opening with a bullish gap only to partially… MORE>>
Apr 08, 2021 – Navigating the Tidal Wave of Liquidity – S&P 500 moved marginally higher in spite of its short-term very extended position, powered by liquidity and almost defying… MORE>>
Apr 07, 2021 – On the Verge of Stocks Pullback – S&P 500 is still consolidating Monday‘s sharp gains, showered with liquidity. Yet it seems that eking out further gains is getting… MORE>>
Apr 06, 2021 – New S&P 500 Highs or Metals Rising? – Bullish run in stocks is on, driven by tech gains and value not yielding an inch. A rare constellation given the the long-dated Treasuries performance especially – as if… MORE>>
Apr 05, 2021 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
Apr 05, 2021 – S&P 500 Fireworks and Gold Going Stronger – Bullish run in stocks is on, driven by tech gains and value swinging higher as well. Throughout the markets, risk-on has been… MORE>>
Apr 02, 2021 – Easter Holiday Update for Stocks and Gold – As the markets are closed today with the exception of bond ones, I would like to wish you Happy Easter – and if you don’t celebrate it, enjoy the extra time off, away from the markets, with your closest ones. MORE>>
Apr 01, 2021 – Stock ATHs and Gold Double Bottom – Bullish run in stocks that lost steam before the close – does that qualify as a reversal? Given the other moves such as… MORE>>
Mar 31, 2021 – Stocks, Gold and the Troubling Yields – Yesterday‘s consolidation in stocks was a bullish one, and the S&P 500 upswing has good prospects of proceeding unimpeded. Strange but true if you consider that… MORE>>
Mar 30, 2021 – Liquidity Boost for Stocks and Gold? – Friday‘s great run gave way to yesterday‘s consolidation, and stock bulls appear in need of more before taking out the… MORE>>
Mar 29, 2021 – What Could Slay the Stock & Gold Bulls – Put/call ratio didn‘t lie, and the anticipated S&P 500 upswing came on Friday – fireworks till the closing bell. Starting on Thursday, with the… MORE>>
Mar 26, 2021 – Intraday Update for Stocks #2 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
Mar 26, 2021 – Why It‘s Reasonable to Be Bullish Stocks and Gold – Another day, another reversal – and a positive one for stocks. Universal sectoral weakness gave way to a unison rebound amid constructive outside markets. After… MORE>>
Mar 26, 2021 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
Mar 25, 2021 – Risk-off Is Back Again – Stocks reversed yesterday, and the close below 3,900 indicates short-term weakness instead of muddling through in a tight range. Especially the… MORE>>
Mar 24, 2021 – Why Retreating Yields Don‘t Lift All Boats – Stocks declined but won‘t they run higher next? Tuesday‘s downswing changed precious little, and the… MORE>>
Mar 23, 2021 – Dangerous Game of Chicken – Monday‘s higher stock prices don‘t mean that the sky is the limit now – there were quite a few signs of weakness in related markets as well. MORE>>
Mar 22, 2021 – Tide Is Turning in Stocks and Gold – Friday‘s session ended in a tie, but it‘s the bears who missed an opportunity to win. Markets however dialed back their doubting of… MORE>>
Mar 19, 2021 – Breaking the Spell of Rising Yields – Markets didn‘t buy into the Fed messaging, and quite a few moves were reversed. Stocks declined, commodities got under pressure, and… MORE>>
Mar 18, 2021 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
Mar 18, 2021 – Reversing the Fed Moves? – Fed messaging was rightfully interpreted as dovish – full employment is in effect its single mandate now. Yes, the central bank will tolerate higher inflation, and… MORE>>
Mar 17, 2021 – Intraday Update for Stocks #2 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
Mar 17, 2021 – Squaring the Bets Prior to the Fed – Barely visible, but still a red candle – does yesterday mark a turning point? Even the volatility index refused to decline further… MORE>>
Mar 17, 2021 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
Mar 16, 2021 – Stock Bulls Run – Will Gold Ones Too? – Resting on Friday, surging on Monday. Feeble downswing attempt defeated right after the open, and then just… MORE>>
Mar 15, 2021 – Gold and Stock Bulls Are Getting Ready – Now that stocks closed at new all time highs, the correction is officially over. And what little rest stock bulls could claim last week,… MORE>>
Mar 12, 2021 – Resting Stock Bulls and Gold Question Marks – Stock bulls went right for all time highs yesterday, clearing the 3,900 threshold in this correction – one that is in its very late innings indeed. But the preceding… MORE>>
Mar 11, 2021 – Stocks Bulls Can Take a Rest – But Gold Ones Can‘t – The daily banging on the 3,900 threshold shows in yesterday‘s upper knot, and this milestone has very good chances of being conquered today. More important than the exact timing though, are… MORE>>
Mar 10, 2021 – Stocks Love Rising CPI, and Gold Should Too – Monday‘s reversal I didn‘t trust, gave way to another upswing – still within this getting long in the tooth correction. MORE>>
Mar 09, 2021 – Stocks Shaking Off Weak Tech As Gold Bottoms? – Stocks spiked higher, but not before going sideways to down prior on the day. And the close to the session… MORE>>
Mar 08, 2021 – No More Rocking the Boat in Stocks But Gold? – Stocks sharply reversed intraday, and closed just where they opened the prior Friday. That indicates quite some pressures, quite some… MORE>>
Mar 05, 2021 – Great ADP Figures But Things Can Still Turn Nasty – Powell gave a wait-and-see answer to my yesterday‘s rhetorical question about the bears just starting out, indeed. The S&P 500… MORE>>
Mar 04, 2021 – Are S&P 500 and Precious Metals Bears Just Getting Started? – Scary selling yesterday? See how little the downswing has achieved technically, check out the other characteristics, and you‘ll probably reach the same conclusion I did. MORE>>
Mar 03, 2021 – Weak Jobs Data, Stocks and Gold – Stocks gave up some of Monday‘s strong gains, but I find it little concerning in the sub-3,900 pre-breakout meandering. It‘s about time, and a play on the tech sector… MORE>>
Mar 02, 2021 – What Correction in Stocks? And Gold? – Stocks thoroughly rebounded yesterday, and corporate credit markets did even better. These are optimistic signs as the… MORE>>
Mar 01, 2021 – Stocks, Gold – Rebound or Dead Cat Bounce? – None of Friday‘s intraday attempts to recapture 3,850 stuck, and the last hour‘s selling pressure is… MORE>>
Feb 26, 2021 – Dead Cat Bounce? Bears Aren‘t Taking Prisoners Now – Right from the open, stocks have been losing altitude yesterday, and value couldn‘t indeed overpower the tech slide. Long-dated Treasuries had a climactic day of… MORE>>
Feb 25, 2021 – Why Tech Is Giving Me Jeepers – Watch Out, Gold – Powell testimony is over, with markets rejoicing the promise of still accomodative Fed. Value keeps surging over growth, and regardless of yesterday‘s… MORE>>
Feb 24, 2021 – Tech Holds the Key to S&P 500 – The Powell inspired, coinciding (have your pick) S&P 500 stop run is almost history now, with the futures trading… MORE>>
Feb 23, 2021 – It‘s Only Tech That‘s Sold – Not S&P 500, Gold Or Silver – S&P 500 is getting under modest pressure, and technology is to blame. Is the correction about to turn nasty from sideways? Still… MORE>>
Feb 22, 2021 – Kiss of Life for Gold – The narrow trading range in stocks continues, and the shallow sideways correction will eventually resolve itself with another upleg. The signs are…. MORE>>
Feb 19, 2021 – Why the Sky Is Not Falling in Precious Metals – Stocks are predictably staging a continued recovery from the mostly sideways correction – a shallow one not strong enough to break the bulls‘ back…. The bearish sentiment in gold and miners is running rampant, and it‘s been only yesterday when I… MORE>>
Feb 18, 2021 – S&P 500 Correction – No Need to Hold Onto Your Hat – Yesterday‘s bearish price action in stocks was the kind of shallow, largely sideways correction I was looking for. Not too enthusiastic follow through – just rocking the boat while… MORE>>
Feb 17, 2021 – Is That the S&P 500 And Gold Correction Finally? – The stock bears finally showed they aren‘t an extinct species – merely a seriously endangered one. Yesterday‘s close though gives them a chance to.. MORE>>
Feb 16, 2021 – Still No S&P 500 Correction, Still No Real Change in the Metals – Yesterday‘s thin volume session didn‘t bring any material changes as the window of opportunity for the stock bears to act, is… MORE>>
Feb 15, 2021 – S&P 500 Correction Delayed Again While Silver Runs – The window of opportunity for the stock bears is slowly but surely closing down as Friday‘s gentle intraday peek higher turned into a buying spree before the closing bell. The sentiment readings and put/call ratio are… MORE>>
Feb 12, 2021 – S&P 500 Correction Looming, Just as in Gold – Or Not? – Stocks are clinging to the 3,900 level, and the bulls aren‘t yielding. Without much fanfare, both the sentiment readings and put/call ratio are at the greed and compacent end of the spectrum again. How long can it last, and what… MORE>>
Feb 11, 2021 – Feeling the Growing Heat and Tensions in Stocks? – Yesterday was a prelude, a little preview of things to come. We better get used to brief and shallow corrections again, after being… MORE>>
Feb 10, 2021 – Stocks Ripe for a Breather As Gold and Silver Remain Strong – Both the upside and downside in stocks appears limited as these keep cooling off not far away from recent highs. Yesterday‘s session sent us a telling signal that the bears might wake up from their stupor briefly. Largely though,… MORE>>
Feb 09, 2021 – PMs Charging Higher As Stocks Keep Pushing On a String – Stocks keep cooling off at their highs, and calling for a correction still seems to be many a fool‘s errand. Does it mean all is fine in the S&P 500 land? MORE>>
Feb 08, 2021 – Gold About To Spring As Stocks Cool Off At Highs – Stock bulls aren‘t yielding an inch of ground, and technically they have precious few reasons for doing so. It‘s still strong the stock market bull, and standing in its way isn‘t really advisable. With the S&P 500 at new highs, … MORE>>
Feb 05, 2021 – More Than a Snapback Rally in Gold As Stocks Keep Marching – Stock bulls aren‘t wavering, and the upswing continues without a pause. Is the move (still) in balance with the relevant markets as one catches up to the other, or is a digestion of prior sharp gains nearby? MORE>>
Feb 04, 2021 – Gold Selling Is a Bit Extreme, Compared to Dollar and Stocks – Wednesday brought us daily consolidation of prior S&P 500 gains, and that‘s a positive outcome for the bulls. Base building at a higher level, if you will, is looking set to continue also today. MORE>>
Feb 03, 2021 – Stocks Need to Consolidate Now, And Gold Will Anyway – After Monday‘s great rise, stocks continued without much of a pause yesterday too. Did they get ahead of themselves, or not really? And what about those correction calls, is the alarm over now? As said yesterday, the bulk of the correction in stocks, is over. … MORE>>
Feb 02, 2021 – Correction in Stocks Almost Over While Gold Is Basing – In line with expectations and probabilities, the stock bulls returned … All right, but are the bulls as strong as might seem from looking at this week‘s price performance? … MORE >>
Feb 02, 2021 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
Feb 01, 2021 – How to Shake Off the Blues in Stocks and Break Out in Gold – The week just over brought a heavy decline on rising volume in stocks – is this the dreaded sizable correction start, or the general February weakness I warned about a week ago? … MORE >>
Jan 29, 2021 – Intraday Update for Stocks #2 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
Jan 29, 2021 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
Jan 29, 2021 – The Moonshot Fizzled Out, Inviting Sellers Again – The reflexive rebound slowly but surely lost steam, rolling over into the close. The decline continued in the overnight session before a 3720-ish floor was established, indicating… MORE >>
Jan 28, 2021 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
Jan 28, 2021 – Late Yesterday, I Called the S&P 500 Ambush As Likely Over – The downswing potential I warned about yesterday, came. Heavy selling continued as the Fed threw cold water in assessing the pace of the recovery, and didn‘t signal readiness to prop it up even more… MORE >>
Jan 27, 2021 – Intraday Update for Stocks #1 – Reserved for Monica’s Insider Club subscribers.
Jan 27, 2021 – S&P 500 and Gold Bulls, Get Ready to Meet the Bears – Yesterday‘s recovery ended on a weak note as stock bulls gave up the opening gap. Disappointing in the very short run, especially given that other key markets acted likewise weak. Neither corporate bonds, nor gold, nor oil could get their act together, … MORE >>
Jan 26, 2021 – The Sky Has Just Cleared for Stocks in the Short Run – Yesterday, I highlighted the seesaw nature of the S&P 500 grind just in time for the intraday bear raid to hit. How much of a damage has it done, should we pay attention to hanging man candlestick? … MORE >>
Jan 25, 2021 – Rosy February for S&P 500? Not So Fast – With Biden in the White House, Trump’s hallmark policies with the exception of 2017 tax cuts, are being undone. Would that be true also about the stock bull market that I called back in spring 2020? Still in autumn that year, … MORE >>
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