Here, you’ll find timeless analyses beyond the S&P 500, precious metals, oil, copper or cryptos – special calls, reports on select commodities, USD Index, Treasuries, the Fed, macroeconomics etc.
Nov 21, 2022 – Fake Breakdown – why the S&P 500 with both tech and value participation would continue.
Nov 18, 2022 – Reflating (doubting the bearish shift that’s likely to result in a fake S&P 500 breakdown.
Nov 14, 2022 – Paradigm Shift – sectoral strength of the Q4 rally, why the Nov CPI was an important turning point (medium-term).
Nov 10, 2022 – Tight CPI Race – why the CPI release was to mark peak in inflation and serve as risk-on catalyst.
Nov 07, 2022 – That Bullish Catalyst – impact of China zero covid policy speculations lifting stocks and real assets, with a bullish PMs and commodities bias.
Oct 31, 2022 – Correction Time Indeed – USD top, Fed to relent in rate hikes after Nov, bullish PMs and copper calls.
Oct 26, 2022 – Q4 Rally Confirmed – stock market path since the Oct CPI turnaround call, the whipsaws and prospects ahead after overcoming the key resistance.
Oct 24, 2022 – Fate of Q4 Rally – the resistance zone to make the counter trend rally interesting, USD topping out, earnings and real economy prospects.
Oct 18, 2022 – Meeting Resistance – why Thursday’s batch of economic data would likely result in stock market declining.
Oct 17, 2022 – Corrective Setback – what could prove the Q4 rally catalyst, S&P 500 sectors to outperform and underperform.
Oct 10, 2022 – Still Elusive Rebound – NFPs confirmed the bears have the upper hand as Fed tightening goes on and neither yields nor the dollar have peaked.
Oct 07, 2022 – Really No Pivot – importance of knowing your trade’s rationale, and assessing the game plan in real time for securing profits.
Oct 04, 2022 – Fed Turn That Wasn’t – importance of keeping your cool and rational analytical objectivity even if markets temporarily go against you.
Oct 03, 2022 – SPX Bottom Near? – downside risks accentuated as the Fed didn’t relent yet, but a nice Q4 rally is in the making even if it would fail as the summer one did, PMs turning.
Sep 29, 2022 – Daily Turn or More – BoE turned but the Fed didn’t, dividend stocks analysis and suggestions.
Sep 26, 2022 – All Eyes on Long-Dated Treasuries – why this wans’t the S&P 500 bottom, the role of long-dated Treasuries in the real economy prospects, inflation progress, and the Fed’s still hawkish path giving way to at least neutral posture a couple of quarters down the road.
Sep 19, 2022 – Weak Rebound, Weak – sticky inflation and not making a clear peak, the Fed is to remain restrictive even if hiking by “only” 75bp, and housing as a leading indicator.
Sep 07, 2022 – Game Plan and More Selling – why the Powell speech, ECB and CPI with PPI hopes are misplaced in making the Fed back off from tightening.
Sep 01, 2022 – Cat and Mouse Game – why the Fed doesn‘t have the buyers’ back now, and why it can „afford“ to be more restrictive than generally appreciated.
Aug 29, 2022 – Bears Calling – Jackson Hole speech implications for the markets amid Fed’s bluntly repeated commitment to take on inflation now.
Aug 26, 2022 – Facing Damocles Sword – timeline of the daily and intraday S&P 500 trade executions shared live on Twitter throughout the day.
Aug 25, 2022 – Jackson Hole Plan – markets tipping their hand as to what to expect from Powell’s speech the following day.
Aug 23, 2022 – In a Heartbeat – Fed balance sheet and margin debt to illustrate waning liquidity.
Aug 22, 2022 – Enticing the Bears – deepening yield curve inversion, interest rates are getting too high for the weakening real economy.
Aug 17, 2022 – Turning Up the Heat – the economic slowdown path the real economy data keep painting.
Aug 15, 2022 – The Turn – examination of whether and why S&P 500 is in bear market rally or a new bull run.
Aug 09, 2022 – The Reversal – expecting soft CPI tomorrow, but the Fed won’t back off tightening as they have to take on inflation expectations.
Aug 08, 2022 – Unclosed Gap – 75bp hike in Sep becoming probable, but hawkish Fed is to get inflation to 5-6% CPI at best, and Fed funds rate would not to go above 4%.
Aug 05, 2022 – Bull Trap Ready – why NFPs are the bearish turnaround, the Bank of England tightening lessons for the Fed making the pivot still elusive.
Aug 01, 2022 – Bears to Have the Last Laugh – why the bullish S&P 500 run has to roll over in Aug, with Fed to still turn hawkish beyond balance sheet.
Jul 28, 2022 – Bullish Case Explained – the reasoning behind my continued bullish S&P 500 trade calls of late, with Fed insigths on top.
Jul 25, 2022 – Bearish Test – why the S&P 500 bears are a bit ahead of themselves, making a bit of a rebound before rollover in stocks likely.
Jul 18, 2022 – Risk-On Vs. Liquidity Squeeze – shape of the bottoming process in stocks, next Fed moves and economy prospects.
Jul 08, 2022 – launch of premium services – Monica’s Trading Signals, followed by Monica’s Stock Signals, and of course 1:1 consultations.
Jun 21, 2022 – No Dodging the Bullet – why I see a recession and hard landing as the most likely outcomes.
Jun 15, 2022 – Will They Or Won’t They – the realities of feeble risk-on rallies, with copper and silver facing stiffest headwinds.
Jun 13, 2022 – The Breakdown – the Fed between a rock and a hard place, with PMs attempting to decouple from the belated hawkishness.
Jun 10, 2022 – The Break – stocks plunge right on cue as Fed’s dealing inflation is questioned, safe haven gold.
Jun 05, 2022 – The Horns of Fed‘s Dilemma – would inflation come down just enough to enable the Fed to support the sputtering real economy?
Jun 02, 2022 – Stall Speed Before Running – why the case in real assets isn’t short-tern lost even though patience is required.
May 31, 2022 – Game Plan Ahead – the just unfolding S&P 500 rally would roll over to fresh lows, don’t count on the Fed’s soft landing.
May 18, 2022 – False Dawn – the final lows in the stock market aren’t yet in, PMs are waking up, dollar topping.
May 13, 2022 – Turning Treasuries – Treasury yields are making a local top, S&P 500 to rise for a while.
May 09, 2022 – Sequencing the Turnaround – disbelieving the Fed to tame inflation, dollar topping over the coming weeks, assets trajectory next.
May 02, 2022 – Short-Lived Indeed – portfolio possibilities to navigate the tightening storm of the weeks and months to come.
Apr 25, 2022 – Still Lower to Go – real asset bulls should taper the appreciation expectations in the short run.
Apr 20, 2022 – Turning Around for Good? – why the S&P 500 rally is running out of time, with hawkish Powell about to sink it.
Apr 11, 2022 – Where Next, Bears? – seminal piece presenting S&P 500, yields, PMs and commodities projections, including sectoral picks for the medium-term and this decade. Plus the Fed, tightening and countdown to recession.
Mar 21, 2022 – Walking on Sunshine – the stock market most likely path in 1H 2022, setting up a buying opportunity in July 2022.
Mar 17, 2022 – Business As Usual – 7 rate hikes and balance sheet reduction starting spring 2022 isn’t going to happen.
Mar 16, 2022 – Snowball‘s Chance in Hell – the pressure on Powell to be really dovish, is on.
Mar 14, 2022 – Hanging By a Thread – RSP hasn‘t yet broken below its horizontal support as S&P 500 is hanging by a thread, copper presents the least volatile appreciation.
Mar 07, 2022 – Peculiar Reversal – there is something odd about the S&P 500 upswing, Fed rate hikes less probable, S&P 500 likely to retreat slightly vs. the Jan 2022 open.
Mar 04, 2022 – Back to Risk-Off – odds are stacked against paper market bulls, many signs of inflation to continue.
Mar 02, 2022 – Real Assets, Bonds and New Profits – what‘s most interesting about bonds now, is the relenting pressure on the Fed to raise rates.
Feb 25, 2022 – Risk Premium, Poof – money flows out of the dollar hiding, geopolitics uncertainty is getting removed in the markets‘ mind.
Feb 21, 2022 – Changing Gears – brief S&P 500 and bonds reprieve ahead even if consumer isn‘t in a great shape, 4-5% CPI for 2022 might turn out a full percentage point higher.
Feb 18, 2022 – Confirming Carnage – negative sentiment in stocks needs to be confirmed by risk-off bonds today, PMs are shining ever more brightly.
Feb 17, 2022 – Bearish Turn Coming – stock market correction hasn‘t run its course yet, commodities and precious metals likewise are acting very positively in this tightening cycle.
Feb 07, 2022 – Rally Time – little S&P 500 reprieve is next as bonds indicate, around May or June we would know whether we were just consolidating or topping out.
Jan 31, 2022 – Working Out Great – verbal pause in Fed hawkishness driving S&P 500 as bond divergencies to stocks abound.
Jan 27, 2022 – One More Time – I’m not looking the perceived hawkishness to be able to go all the way – as the Fed overplays its tightening hand, we would see rates retreat again in 2022.
Jan 26, 2022 – Rushing Headlong – time to calm down and reprice the excessively hawkish Fed fears.
Jan 21, 2022 – Still Pushing for More – washout S&P 500 bottom approaching, portfolio performance chart as it’s 1 year today since I launched my site (later that day cashed fresh S&P 500 short profits to bring the equity curve even higher).
Jan 17, 2022 – Oil Smashing Stocks – we haven’t seen the end of SPX selling even if 2022 is likely to end up around 5,150.
Jan 13, 2022 – All Eyes on Copper – sure, hawkish Fed moves outlined would do the inflation fighting trick…
Jan 10, 2022 – Stocks Meet Stagflation – high inflation won‘t be tamed by the hawkish Fed, inflation-induced economic slowdown would be a 2022 surprise.
Jan 06, 2022 – Game of Chicken – jobs data to provide the Fed with a convenient tightening cover, risking a tantrum rivalling Dec 2018.
Jan 04, 2022 – Beneath the Surface, Rally – market breadth improving, none of the fundamental or monetary with fiscal policy originating PMs reasoning has been invalidated.
Dec 30, 2021 – Celebrating Santa Challenge As Over – Santa Claus rally indeed hasn‘t yet run its course, my best wishes for 2022.
Dec 28, 2021 – What‘s Not to Love Here – the Dec 21 called Santa Claus rally to keep giving, explanation of the true message of compressed yield curve.
Dec 23, 2021 – Still More to Come – Santa rally to go on, Merry Christmas wishes.
Dec 20, 2021 – Dollar‘s Warning Signal – 2022 targets in S&P 500 and 10-year Treasury yield while inflation isn‘t about to recede in the short run.
Dec 15, 2021 – Tough Choices Ahead – overly hawkish Fed expectations are misplaced, the Fed will be forced to reverse course abruptly in 2022.
Dec 13, 2021 – On a Knife-Edge – global economic activity might be peaking, liquidity around the world is shrinking already, 2022 is going to be tough.
Dec 07, 2021 – Turning the Corner in Style – follow up question to yesterday’s analysis answered.
Dec 06, 2021 – Topping Process Roadmap – what to watch so as to determine whether we are really midway in the topping process.
Dec 03, 2021 – Bonds Didn‘t Disappoint – Fed is desperately behind the curve in taming inflation, and its late acknowledgment thereof doesn‘t change the bleak prospects of tapering into a sputtering economy.
Dec 01, 2021 – It‘s the Fed, Not Omicron – any inflation reprieve the scary news buys would likely turn out only temporary.
Nov 29, 2021 – Day That Changed the World? – only if helping hand isn’t extending and hard curbs to economic activity are introduced, we are looking at a sharp selloff.
Nov 24, 2021 – Waking Up the Giants – the fresh Fed hawkish talking games are a formidable headwind, presenting bulish side to USD argument.
Nov 23, 2021 – Betting on Hawkish Fed – yields differential between the U.S. and the rest of the world getting more positive, but Powell would be forced to make a sharp dovish turn.
Nov 15, 2021 – Getting Real on PMs and Inflation – risks to the real economy coupled with persistently high inflation rising since 2Q 2022 if not since Mar already, but most pronounced in 2H 2022.
Nov 08, 2021 – Calling the Precious Metals Bull – sensing the upcoming (early Dec) greenback weakness has been part and parcel of the gold and silver resilience of late, with more to come.
Nov 03, 2021 – Lip Service to Inflation, Again – looking for the Fed to soften taper before it can run its course (i.e. before 2H 2022 arrives).
Nov 01, 2021 – Don‘t Fear Risk-Off – I ask how serious can the Fed be about delivering on taper promises when the economy is slowing already.
Oct 27, 2021 – The Dollar Dog That Doesn‘t Bark – look for the dollar first to signal weakening of the risk-off positioning.
Oct 25, 2021 – Pause Before the Run – Powell‘s latest pronouncements on Nov taper readiness don‘t pack the same punch as they did in Jun.
Oct 20, 2021 – Ever More Risk-On – summer yields lull indeed followed by renewed march higher, Fed inflation narratives progression into 2022.
Oct 15, 2021 – Key Market Shift Confirmed – on the importance of immediate adjustments to the bullish turns so as to power portfolio performance to fresh highs.
Oct 12, 2021 – S&P 500 Uphill Battle – hot CPI to confirm raging inflation.
Oct 01, 2021 – Sharp Market Turns Not To Miss – pesky inflation acknowledged by the Fed, energy crunch through China ordering its state-owned enterprises to secure oil supplies at any cost.
Sep 30, 2021 – Inflation Waking Up Bonds – the slowly but surely acknowledged inflation surprise will come back to bite.
Sep 27, 2021 – Reflation vs. Stagflation – the bigger picture leaves the ambitious Nov tapering suspect.
Sep 23, 2021 – So Much for Hawkish Fed – very aggressive $10-15bn a month taper plans set the bar a bit too high.
Sep 22, 2021 – Rescued by the Fed Again? – S&P 500 bears in need of a fresh reason to sell, Fed taper is a side show (already tightening through the back door), the slow and steady rising yields phase is deferred for now as we’re in a decelerating real economy faced with numerous deflationary pressures.
Sep 13, 2021 – Where Are the Fireworks? – S&P 500 is starting to run into headwinds thanks to inflation, stagflation worries.
Aug 27, 2021 – Taper Shock That Never Was – stealth real attempts to test the markets‘ tolerance to the continuing monetary largesse, Powell is keen to cement his legacy.
Aug 19, 2021 – Taper Squeeze Is On! – Fed would have a much harder time withdrawing liquidity now, taking on inflation through the dollar doesn‘t come without its own risks.
Aug 17, 2021 – Between a Rock and a Hard Place – it would be a tall order to turn off the spigot into a weakening economy.
Aug 13, 2021 – Fresh Highs to Meet Fresh Volatility – there is no forcing the Fed‘s hand through rising yields, the Fed practically having to do something in Jackson Hole– in all likelihood face saving only.
Aug 11, 2021 – CPI Fuel and the Smoldering Inflation Fire – regardless of the lower monthly CPI figure, inflation will keep being a thorn in its side for a long time.
Aug 09, 2021 – Gold and Silver Massacre to Continue? – Treasury yields made a double bottom, tech to give way to cyclicals, then inflation, reopening trades and interest-rate sensitive spreads (e.g. financials over utilities) should start doing better just as gold when taper is announced.
Aug 02, 2021 – Best Assets to Profit Now On – inflation / reopening trades still alive, Fed ill-positioned to withdraw liquidity à la 2018, Copper Trading Signals started.
Jul 06, 2021 – The Rise of Precious Metals and Commodities – real assets surging again, Fed as inflation fighter is subject to well deserved mockery.
Jun 29, 2021 – The Run Ignoring Inflation – Fed is behind the curve in taking on inflation, with only PMs behind the curve.
Jun 24, 2021 – Stocks Love the Back and Forth with the Fed – job market excuses forrr Fed “tightening” (long copper Standard and Advanced Money Management …. $4.30)
Jun 23, 2021 – Dialing Back the Fed Fears for Now – Fed “tightening” and “transitory”redefinitions powering rebound of inflation trades.
Jun 21, 2021 – Fed Didn‘t Tame Inflation – seeing through the smoke and mirrors of the Fed “tightening”.
Jun 10, 2021 – Inflation Storm Coming – in defence of inflation trades having further to run, Fed reluctant to act.
Jun 08, 2021 – One Last Hooray Before CPI? – greenback to reflexively rise on taper prospects.
Jun 04, 2021 – Another Taper Mirage Comes and Goes – taper very premature, barely budging inflation expectations, Treasury market vulnerability exposed yesterday, no slaying the stock market, PMs and commodities bulls.
Jun 03, 2021 – When Markets Get Scared and Reverse – betting on taper through good ADP report is premature.
Jun 02, 2021 – Reversals, Inflation, and Scares of Any Kind – transitory vs. permanent inflation and why inflation is goign to take front seat to a growth scare as inflation won’t retreat nearly enough.
May 27, 2021 – Hanging by a Proverbial Thread – so far it‘s only the precious metals that are calling the Fed‘s taper bluff, behaving as if the inflation battle has been lost.
May 26, 2021 – Eerily Serene Risk-off Markets – Treasury market reprieve I announced on May 18 to last more than a few good weeks, is here.
May 21, 2021 – Tug of War and Its Profitable Resolution – Fed taper intentions, inflation projections, reflation, reopenings and value still outperforming growth, why gold is underpinned.
May 19, 2021 – Bug in Search of Windshield – on thriving when inflation fears are hitting hard and the market doubts Fed’s willingness to fight it.
May 17, 2021 – Same Old Song and Dance – Almost – transitory vs. permanently elevated inflation discussion.
May 14, 2021 – Is the Selling Madness About Over? – tech posture improving, markets coming to terms with higher inflation.
May 12, 2021 – Bulls Coming to Terms with Inflation – CPI may force the Fed as much as it wants to, but the central bank won’t act on inflation.
May 07, 2021 – Ready for More Hot Gold and Stocks Profits – oil analysis, Bitcoin analysis, Oil Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals started.
May 06, 2021 – Stocks and Gold – Hot and Hotter – upcoming SPX break higher, USDX vulnerable, gold and silver about to shake off the dollar shackles and catch up to commodities.
May 03, 2021 – Taper Smoke and Mirrors – Kaplan trial baloon won’t save USD, Bitcoin analysis.
Apr 29, 2021 – Enough Consolidation Already! – oil analysis.
Apr 26, 2021 – No Upsetting the Apple Cart in Stocks or Gold – we’re in an inflation environment already, USD bear market reasserting itself.
Apr 23, 2021 – The Tax Plan to Slay the Stock Bull? – Bitcoin analysis.
Apr 21, 2021 – Gold Unleashed – Rip Your Face Off Rally Is Here – oil analysis.
Apr 20, 2021 – Gold Reversal? Have No Fear! – USD trend is down now.
Apr 15, 2021 – Stocks, Gold and Commodities Meet the Fed – SPX correction to be very temporary, as Fed confirmed inflation tolerance and no buybacks in bonds, PMs to take commodities’ cue next.
Apr 07, 2021 – On the Verge of Stocks Pullback – extended but S&P 500 is in a major bull market with 95%+ stocks above 200-day moving average.
Apr 01, 2021 – Stock ATHs and Gold Double Bottom – rising inflation expectations still no issue for stocks, gold turning positive.
Mar 29, 2021 – What Could Slay the Stock & Gold Bulls – why the Fed unlikely to act now won’t result in deflation, and why stock market’s eventual woes from rising yields would bring about first deflation then USD devaluation against gold in the far future.
Mar 26, 2021 – Why It‘s Reasonable to Be Bullish Stocks and Gold – reflation trade dynamic returning, fresh money avalange & MMT, no deflation scare.
Mar 19, 2021 – Breaking the Spell of Rising Yields – how doubting the Fed puts a floor undet PMs, gold decoupling from TLT, still bullish oil analysis.
Mar 17, 2021 – Squaring the Bets Prior to the Fed – how expectation from the Fed fit into the stimulus barrage, stocks and precious metals upswing.
Mar 15, 2021 – Gold and Stock Bulls Are Getting Ready – relating rising inflation expectations to yields, sticking by the great Russell 2000 prospects.
Mar 12, 2021 – Resting Stock Bulls and Gold Question Marks – why the market knows the Fed won’t do anything more now, and what happens in gold, dollar and emerging markets once it acts. How far gold is in discounting that outcome.
Mar 09, 2021 – Stocks Shaking Off Weak Tech As Gold Bottoms? – Mar 08 analysis enriched with the TLT & USDX eyes. Extensive examples of my profitable trade calls through the years, and 2021 portfolio call successes.
Mar 08, 2021 – No More Rocking the Boat in Stocks But Gold? – nominal rates, real rates, inflation and inflation expectation explained as regards stocks and gold. Long-term view of gold, silver and copper. The consequences of the coming Fed response.
Mar 04, 2021 – Are S&P 500 and Precious Metals Bears Just Getting Started? – game plan for gold nearing key supports, as markets twist Fed’s hand (gold … $1,701).
Mar 01, 2021 – Stocks, Gold – Rebound or Dead Cat Bounce? – identifying S&P 500 sectoral plays to do well & laying the optimistic case for new stock highs sooner than many might think.
Feb 25, 2021 – Why Tech Is Giving Me Jeepers – Watch Out, Gold – calling the tech plunge and dangers for gold.
Feb 24, 2021 – Tech Holds the Key to S&P 500 – the lack of follow-through in gold leads me to bang the warning drum all the way to Fri’s $1,720 selloff (gold downwards … $1,806 till $1,720).
Feb 22, 2021 – Kiss of Life for Gold – the anticipated sharp upswing in gold materialized (gold upwards … $1,777 till $1,806).
Feb 19, 2021 – Why the Sky Is Not Falling in Precious Metals – the razor’s edge we’re at in gold as the heat from plunging long-term Treasuries intensifies, forcing the Fed into war on two fronts – yet neither the yellow metal nor miners are diving without end in sight, just zoom out.
Feb 18, 2021 – S&P 500 Correction – No Need to Hold Onto Your Hat – the Fed moves, stock market bull run in no jeopardy, and quickening long-dated Treasuries slump forcing the central bank eventually into yield curve control.
Feb 17, 2021 – Is That the S&P 500 And Gold Correction Finally? – anatomy of the gold bull run and Fed actions through 2015-2021, diving into inflation cascading through the system and its effects upon precious metals and commodities taking the outperformance baton one from the other.
Feb 12, 2021 – S&P 500 Correction Looming, Just as in Gold – Or Not? – introducing the long silver short gold spread trade idea as a highly promising and immediate one (long silver … $27.30 & short gold … $1,823).
Feb 10, 2021 – Stocks Ripe for a Breather As Gold and Silver Remain Strong – uranium analysis, bullish outlook on uranium as a commodity and as an ETF (long URA …. $17.50)
Feb 09, 2021 – PMs Charging Higher As Stocks Keep Pushing On a String – oil analysis calling out for higher $WTIC prices, bullish 2021+ outlook (long $WTIC … $58).
Feb 08, 2021 – Gold About To Spring As Stocks Cool Off At Highs – calling dollar as topping out, and its coming downleg targeting new lows (short $USD … 91.10).
Feb 01, 2021 – How to Shake Off the Blues in Stocks and Break Out in Gold – why this GameStop coinciding correction is likely over in stocks, why being long silver makes sense for longer-term oriented investors & how to play silver squeeze and similar events. Gold Trading Signals started.
Jan 25, 2021 – Rosy February for S&P 500? Not So Fast – big picture view and 2021 prognostications across many assets including Bitcoin alongside others (long $BTC … $32,275).
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