HOME » RESOURCES » Latest Highlights

Latest Highlights

Here, you’ll find timeless analyses beyond the S&P 500, precious metals, oil, copper or cryptos – special calls, reports on select commodities, USD Index, Treasuries, the Fed, macroeconomics etc.
Often referring to freely available articles, bear in mind that the full premium content is where some of these points are made and developed.

Jun 14, 2024 – Why the Selling into Good PPI – PPI predictions made for clients the day before unlocked now, silver turning point.

Jun 13, 2024 – More NDX Leadership – CPI and FOMC predictions made for clients the day before unlocked now, detailed silver turning point ahead analysis.

Jun 09, 2024 – Standing No Chance – steep daily reversal of rate cut odds on headline NFPs, high odds of revisions lower, precious metals bottom searching.

Jun 05, 2024 – Bring on Those Cuts – poor JOLTS and rate cut open door to unexpected weakness in the job market.

May 31, 2024 – Disinflation Watchout – weak GDP and Q2 prices expected triggers predicted stagflationary fears.

May 27, 2024 – Climbing the Wall of Worry – earlier premium call why I was distrustful of the SPX heavy downswing Thursday, stock picks within XLY.

May 23, 2024 – Predicted NVDA Fireworks – earlier premium call of NVDA earnings being received positively, 5307 support holding in the preceding panic.

May 21, 2024 – Ready for NVDA – Dimon and Druckenmiller moves only illustrate how weak bulls get shaken off, stocks are still bullish and tomorrow great NVDA.

May 16, 2024 – Stellar CPI Gains – premium weekend and yesterday intraday clues for clients that allowed me to reaffirm bullish move in equities and precious metals calls.

May 12, 2024 – My Inflation Data Expectation – detailed reasoning as to why stocks would run on both upcoming inflation data next week, gold silver again bullish calls.

May 09, 2024 – Stagflationary Data Ahead – weak unemployment claims mean risk-on run on retreating yields.

May 07, 2024 – Consolidating and Eating Supply – weak dollar rebound, bullish precious metals call.

May 05, 2024 – Stagflation Embrace – underwhelming NFPs thanks to government hiring, more yen appreciation, yields down, risk-on turn for equities and more.

May 01, 2024 – What the Heck Just Happened – sputtering strength in US economy and stagflationary flavor setting the stage for not dovish Powell – but he chose smooth Treasury market functioning.

Apr 27, 2024 – How Long Risk-On? – stagflation, USD pressed, global easing with China looking much brighter.

Apr 26, 2024 – Hot Core PCE – sticky inflation, BoJ not yet normalizing, and USD topping out to benefit XLI and XLF.

Apr 21, 2024 – That Oversold Bounce – retail and job market data with easy financial conditions mean not 2% but rather 3% inflation.

Apr 19, 2024 – How About This Bounce? – gold is to still keep digesting latest gain, a lot more.

Apr 13, 2024 – Sea of Red – massive risk-taking change affecting inflation trades not just equities, rate cut expectations summary.

Apr 09, 2024 – Reading Pre-CPI Tape – upcoming CPI not to come in totally pleasantly low, 0.4% mom.

Apr 06, 2024 – NFPs Rebound, But… – Thu I favored oil to run, Fri gold to surge, and inflation is going up, odds of a not totally shallow correction have increased.

Apr 05, 2024 – Fear of the Unknown – Iran Mideast uncertainty spiking oil and Treasuries.

Apr 02, 2024 – Key Market Adjustment That Most Miss – what’s success in trading and investing – how I view that lately…

Mar 30, 2024 – Stocks Meet Fewer Cuts – pause button is hitting the rally, higher for longer mantra again, we have expanding and not slowing down economy.

Mar 27, 2024 – Beware of Consolidation Ahead – GDP or core PCE are to dial back the Jun cut odds more and to disrupt stock market buyers, intraday gold calls again.

Mar 22, 2024 – Growth over Inflation – willingness to err on the side of economic growth support vs. inflation, LEIs aren’t as negative as they used to be.

Mar 21, 2024 – Central Banks Dovish Surprises – Powell sees still three cuts and going easier on Fed balance sheet, job market focus, SNB surprise cut paving the CBs way.

Mar 19, 2024 – Tail Risks Rising – XLE is your refuge on the long side.

Mar 17, 2024 – Trend Change Implications – stock bulls beware of bets on easy Fed before the economy starts slowing down noticeably, now is the time of real assets.

Mar 14, 2024 – Trend Change At Hand – again hot inflation data to come, corrective move to the 2024 stocks advance to start.

Mar 13, 2024 – Beware of Rising Swings – increasing intraday volatility in Bitcoin and its stock plays is warning to being blindly long.

Mar 10, 2024 – Fear vs. Everything Bubble – Friday flush no start of significant correction, rising yields not as negative as in 2023, NVDA $840 still possible if Bitcoin doesn’t relight the spark, gold $2200 target reached.

Mar 08, 2024 – Hunger for Tech – fundamentals driven rally, inflation headed higher to be recognized within two quarters at most, hot NFPs expected, related flush warning.

Feb 28, 2024 – Much IWM Leadership – still rising liquidity, BTC, gold buyers favored.

Feb 25, 2024 – Broadening SPY Rally – reasoned simplicity as to why is the big picture driving stocks higher, sectoral picks to do well.

Feb 21, 2024 – Easiest Profits to Be Made – why Nasdaq short is the lowest hanging fruit out there, no matter NVDA earnings or real assets resilience on sticky inflation.

Feb 18, 2024 – Favoring IWM, XBI and KRE – inflation may be troughing and even forcing a rate hike bets later on, yet biotech, regionals and Russell 2000 are to outperform Nasdaq.

Feb 16, 2024 – Tame PPI Equals Risk-on – faced with PPI surprise, nimble intraday trading saves the day until the dust settles.

Feb 15, 2024 – Positioning for PPI – 10y yield to keep rising, gold close to long entry.

Feb 14, 2024 – Forgetting May Cut – no rate cuts fast, dip buying of the decline from Tuesday’s local top, and intraday gains again delivered.

Feb 12, 2024 – SPY Still Reaching for the Stars – big picture successes, through it’ll be rising yields that stops the S&P 500 rally as much as its narrowing breadth even if XLY, XLF, XLI and XLB are to outperform.

Feb 09, 2024 – Bullish SPY and CPI Gift – grind higher in equities is to continue no matter what rate cuts expectations and actual yield path would do.

Feb 08, 2024 – Another SPY Breakout – yields aren‘t still done rising in the near term, no complete acknowledgement of no rate cut Mar.

Feb 05, 2024 – No Respite for the Bears – stellar successes on NFPs prediction, poor market breadth but still more S&P 500 upside, great earnings, no recession nearby.

Jan 31, 2024 – Sharp FOMC Plan – FOMC to bring S&P 500 drop on announcement, pre-conference retracement, and finally conference volatility hit.

Jan 28, 2024 – Just What Powers SPY – macro reasoning behind S&P 500 rally, very modest targets and sectoral picks review.

Jan 25, 2024 – SPY Correction Risk Flashing – more ES and NDX profits delivered swing and intraday.

Jan 24, 2024 – NDX Gains Bonanza – reaping more NDX profits before ASML earnings after readying clients for bullish NFLX.

Jan 20, 2024 – Breakout to ATHs – Will It Last? – S&P 500 path over the weeks ahead, continuing rise in yields, recession not imminent but manufacturing and unemployment would reveal timing, sectoral picks.

Jan 19, 2024 – TIPS to the Rescue – good bond auctions and semiconductor prospects driving S&P 500, USD 103.50 for now still respected.

Jan 18, 2024 – 20y Auction and Beige Book Turning Points – ES and Treasuries intraday divergence, semiconductors TSM, 103.50 USD, gold $2,005 buy.

Jan 14, 2024 – Where S&P 500 Breakout? –  no worry over recession or no landing in one to two quarters ahead, S&P 500 hinting at breakout whether they cut in Mar or not.

Jan 12, 2024 – Consumer Inflation Slowly Rising – hotter consumer inflation than PPI, good bond autions to underpin risk taking, bullish oil calls.

Jan 08, 2024 – NFPs Profit Bonanza – why stocks swang higher on NFPS and clients couldn’t be happier. Yields and USD prospects as the Fed cuts by 25bp in Mar. Sectoral pick.

Jan 04, 2024 – Peculiar FOMC Minutes Reaction – ignore not the USD upswing and rise in yields over the last couple of days in a reversal of easy rate cutting bets.

Jan 01, 2024 – SPY Reversal Danger – immediate warning of capital gains facilitated stock market decline.

Dec 22, 2023 – SPX Range Established, Or Not – core PCE likely to show continued disinflation and trigger „inflation has been defeated and rates can be cut in Mar“ celebration.

Dec 20, 2023 – Housing, Biotech and Regional Banks – client discussed Russell 2000 drivers.

Dec 17, 2023 – Walking Back Powell – the incompatibility of overly rosy market expectations when it comes to 100-125bp rate cuts 2024, but S&P 500 couldn’t care less.

Dec 14, 2023 – I Promised FOMC Fireworks – why and how FOMC delivered, how I played it for swing and intraday clients.

Dec 10, 2023 – Must Be Soft Landing, Markets Say – AI frenzy, rate cuts, NDX leading and sectors to benefit.

Dec 05, 2023 – More Soft Landing Data – shallow and temporary S&P 500 pullback expected, gold market buying climax called.

Dec 03, 2023 – Overpowering Powell – why the rush of faster and deeper rate cutting, it’s taken as stock positive, which interest rate sensitive sectors benefit.

Dec 01, 2023 – Hawkish Powell Again? – S&P 500 doing an island consolidation before continuing higher.

Nov 27, 2023 – SPY, VIX and USD – USD 102.30 support called, equity chart and sectoral picks to outperform S&P 500 for more than a couple of weeks as per Site News.

Nov 19, 2023 – Nasdaq Fearing Short End Yields – rate cuts expectations moved ever closer, soft landing trades indeed saw revival.

Nov 15, 2023 – Too Much of Low Inflation – more examples of intraday channel analytical contributions driving your gains.

Nov 14, 2023 – SPY Breakout on CPI – I’m looking for rather cooler than hotter inflation, extending intraday ES and DAX gains.

Nov 12, 2023 – SPY Breakout – gold close to the bottom.

Nov 05, 2023 – Making Sense of Sharp Turns – summary of why the bearish S&P 500 trend is reversed.

Nov 03, 2023 – Goldilocks Latter Innings Indeed – NFPs miss shows how late in goldilocks the economy is.

Nov 02, 2023 – No More, Markets Said – underwhelming manufacturing PMI and Powell send stocks up.

Oct 29, 2023 – Bleeding Stocks – no landing narrative is supportive to high yields and higher for longer, more intraday channel gains.

Oct 26, 2023 – Decisive SPY Downswing I Called For – intraday channel commentary calling for S&P 500 decline.

Oct 24, 2023 – Miserable Breadth Must Equal SPY Decline – PMIs not triggerring more higher for longer.

Oct 19, 2023 – Powell to the Rescue – 5.10% – 5.20% technically doable 10y yield target.

Oct 17, 2023 – Those Rising Rates Again – retail sales still strong because consumer is healthy, goldilocks economy is to still win over rate raising fears.

Oct 16, 2023 – Overly Bearish SPY Positioning, I Said – Mideast events have been already factored in Friday, Fed speakers indicating the end of the rate raising cycle, retreat in yields would be a function of end of goldilocks economy.

Oct 13, 2023 – Banks Lifting SPY Bulls – hot CPI prediction, LLY bullish pick again, Monica & Ellin intraday channel sample commentary.

Oct 08, 2023 – Finest Announcementstocks and sectoral analysis introduction to daily premium publications, Monica & Ellin Intraday launched.

Oct 01, 2023 – Keeping SPY Bulls in Check – sticky inflation, why there is little left to support the economy during the coming downturn.

Sep 25, 2023 – Selling Into Daily SPX Strength – upcoming yields path.

Sep 21, 2023 – Great Assets Repricing – the consequences of hawkish FOMC.

Sep 18, 2023 – Bear Over Quad Witching – relatively good US data raise both the hike odds and duration of Fed pause expectations, and rates differential drives up USD.

Sep 07, 2023 – Bad Is Not the New Good – solid consumer spending at expense of current savings rate dip to merely 3.5%.

Sep 02, 2023 – Selling Pivot Hopes – spike based on goldilocks not crashing economy, deferred Sep rate hike odds but Nov is on the table with no cuts any time soon.

Aug 29, 2023 – Reversal Creeping In – very expansive fiscal policy, but 18 times forward earnings valuation has a competitot in short-dated Treasuries still.

Aug 26, 2023 – Jackson Hole Second Thoughts – gold, silver, oil and copper reactions played out to the letter.

Aug 16, 2023 – SPY, Yields Top and China – China preparing to defend CNY while boosting growth through many avenues.

Aug 13, 2023 – More SPY Downside, Tuesday – 10y yield gping to low 4.30s%, data not supporting real economy acceleration from here.

Aug 11, 2023 – Decisive Reversal – CPI 3.2% no way to spin it as disinflation, worldwide rising in yields thanks to BoJ too.

Aug 06, 2023 – SPX Uptrend Questioned – economic data aren‘t simply deteriorating fast enough, disinflation is over, steepening yield curve, six consecutive months of downside revisions of non-farm payrolls pointing to upcoming recession.

Aug 02, 2023 – Rising Yields Vs. Risk Taking – long end of the curve meets Fitch, why inflation is returning (oil prices and resilient job market).

Aug 01, 2023 – Rising Yields Equal Risk-Off – notion of manufacturing bottom being in.

Jul 30, 2023 – Soft Landing Narrative Wins – recession timing update (expansive fiscal policy, still OK job market and not too tight financial conditions), Boj YCC latest tweak and stock market upswing continuation prospects with sectoral picks.

Jul 28, 2023 – GDP-BoJ Punch – BoJ relaxing the yield band, consequences for interest rate sentitive assets.

Jul 23, 2023 – Correction Bottom Searching – recession timing prospects, best sectoral picks for 2H 2023.

Jul 17, 2023 – SPX Correction Ahead – S&P 500 broadening breadth to stay following inflation data aftermath, it’s still bullish and these sectors are to lead.

Jul 09, 2023 – Late Day Reversal Worry – inflation prospects 2H 2023, S&P 500 top approaching but the rally isn’t yet totally over, likewise gold isn’t done basing.

Jul, 03, 2023 – As Bullish As It Gets – stock market to advance still even if bank reserves at the Fed are going down already.

Jun 30, 2023 – Tame PCE and Dip Buying – the importance of my intermarket analysis as per Monica’s Trading Signals in determining that core PCE data release would be bought.

Jun 25, 2023 – Eye of the Storm – the many Q3 recession signs, false dawn and no bull market, residential real estate to surprise in 2H 2023 and in the recession.

Jun 19, 2023 – Youtube channel started!

Jun 18, 2023 – Countdown to ES Downleg – anatomy of ES topping process and GFC, dotcom comparisons, bonds vs. Fed and Q3 recession (false notion it’d be avoided, and earnings rise.

Jun 16, 2023 – ES Quad Witching Fire – 4,015 await, but stocks to bonds and bonds ratios to signal whether improvements in market breadth are genuine.

Jun 11, 2023 – Wary of Bull Market Chorus – the case for Q3 2023 recession, no new bull but instead bottom in the 3,910s at least.

Jun 09, 2023 – As If Fed Turned – forget about real economy deterioration or Treasury replenishing TGA.

Jun 04, 2023 – Stocks To Still Extend Upswing – why overbought tech, approaching recession, tight Fed and TGA replenisment aren’t yet an issue. Monica’s Intraday Signals – new service providing intraday ES trading calls and live coverage, launched!

Jun 03, 2023 – ES Rebound to Continue – ES to go up all the way to the Sunday futures open in the low 4,240s.

May 28, 2023 – Higher, Still Higher – what’s still speaking for more upside in this very narrow rally.

May 26, 2023 – Hot, Hot Inflation – for all the debt ceiling deal optimism, Treasury is to withdraw liquidity to replenish TGA.

May 21, 2023 – Breakout Consolidation – the case for a relatively shallow ES correction before reaching higher again.

May 19, 2023 – Breakout Or Fakeout – pullback to retest ES breakout.

May 18, 2023 – Gentle Snap Or Slap – crucial revisions to the medium-term bearish ES outlook following yesterday.

May 14, 2023 – More Reprieve Time – the worst in terms of economic contraction and banking isn’t over, and inflation expectations rise.

May 12, 2023 – More SPX Reprieve – deposits and CRE are why the banking sector woes are to persist, and P/E will be affected.

May 08, 2023 – Weaker Than Before – S&P 500 weak rally’s technical and fundamental prospects, why the Fed will not cut.

May 05, 2023 – FOMO Dip Buying – continuing the bullish call following midday Thursday hesitation.

May 04, 2023 – Let That Sink In – real FOMC move continued, why insuring all deposits won’t solve small banks.

May 02, 2023 – Fed Ambush – temperature in bonds across the yield curve keeps rising.

Apr 30, 2023 – Way Too Narrow – warning signs and why the buyers won’t like the hawkish Fed on Wednesday.

Apr 27, 2023 – META and Dip Buying – no serious setback to the stock market bulls till AMZN earnings, no collapse Friday.

Apr 25, 2023 – Risk-off Approaching – calling stock market buyers as scraping the barrel.

Apr 24, 2023 – No Fear Recession – why the S&P 500 tired rally would run into a brick wall (LEIs, deposits, Fed, TGA, earnings, jobs).

Apr 21, 2023 – ISM Liquidity Bets – stock market buyers are getting too tired, too extended.

Apr 17, 2023 – Inflation, Recession and the Fed – comprehensive medium-term case for decline in stock market prices.

Apr 09, 2023 – Why More SPX Upside – the bullish case for stocks thanks to Wednesday’s CPI & no matter upcoming NFPs revision.

Apr 02, 2023 – Quarter End Or More – how the great market disconnects (tightening, recession, bond market incl. risk of its seizing) would bring S&P 500 down.

Mar 29, 2023 – Suspect Grind – why it’s only a matter of time before bears take over stocks, and how all roads lead to PMs.

Mar 27, 2023 – Cuts Aren‘t Bullish – why banking hasn’t credibly turned yet, and how any Fed pivot would actually signify more issues, far from ending the S&P 500 bear.

Mar 24, 2023 – Correct Positioning – why it’s banking, Yellen and Powell statements that drive S&P 500 lower (and not the tech rush).

Mar 22, 2023 – Powell to Deliver – Powell vs. market pressure in the inflation fight, and real economy recession prospects.

Mar 19, 2023 – Banking Game of Chicken – rate raising with unhedged Treasuries on banks’ balance sheets lead to Fed having to act decisively.

Mar 13, 2023 – Head Over Heels – deep analysis of banking, contagion risks, and prospects with consequences of Sunday’s Fed & Treasury moves.

Mar 06, 2023 – Stocks Game Plan Till FOMC – Powell testimony, payrolls and CPI in the search of terminal Fed funds rate – game plan for FOMC.

Feb 28, 2023 – The Countdown – stock market bull trap while PMs haven’t yet bottomed conclusively in spite of copper resilience, crude oil being fairly bid, and natgas bullish call still working out.

Feb 27, 2023 – Recession Anatomy – regardless of personal savings and income, the economy would progress towards recession – and this is the sequencing.

Feb 24, 2023 – Even Higher Terminal – returning inflation is why I had been calling for more Fed hikes and tightening.

Feb 21, 2023 – Fuse Has Been Lit – why S&P 500 dead cat bounces are to fail as the Fed and other CBs are to pause later rather than sooner as the no landing thesis fades.

Feb 17, 2023 – Fed and Rates – why higher inflation and higher rates will win over the coming dead cat bounce.

Feb 13, 2023 – CPI Game Plan – why not even a nice CPI surprise tomorrow won’t save this bear market rally for rolling over.

Feb 08, 2023 – Trend Still Up – inflation to return in 2H 2023, underpinning commodities and precious metals in their supercycles, same for high rates.

Feb 06, 2023 – Soft Landing, Really? – following the great FOMC upswing, why NFPs facilitated soft landing calls are wrong.

Feb 01, 2023 – Wake Up Call – more on Jan FOMC game plan calling for risk-on rally in stocks (“springboard” setup).

Jan 30, 2023 – FOMO Rules – Wed’s FOMC expectations and game plan, sticky inflation and earnings recession, with Europe and China points raised.

Jan 25, 2023 – More Defence – necessity for dialing back of the excessive soft landing, Fed pivot or pause sentiment.

Jan 23, 2023 – Smelling Fine Opportunity – no Fed pivot, not even a pause, which doesn’t bode well for easy financial conditions to persist.

Jan 19, 2023 – Changing Bias – tightened stop-losses taking the model portfolio above $280K from $50K starting Jan 2021 (see homepage descriptions – no slippage, commissions, taxes. Past performance is no guarantee of future results).

Jan 17, 2023 – Tail Risks Emerging – thorough review of soft landing, Fed funds rate, QT, BoJ, job market and earnings with key recession indicators.

Jan 09, 2023 – Bad Is the New Good – shape of the coming recession, Fed hikes and state of the U.S. consumer as key unknowns.

Jan 05, 2023 – Jobs Chasing Inflation – why I was confident about yields, slowing inflation and S&P 500 rally in the NFPs wake.

Jan 04, 2023 – Yields Are Clear – clear about no soft landing.

Jan 03, 2023 – Budding Sign Not to Miss – tough times for the dollar ahead.

Dec 29, 2022 – The Year in Review and Ahead – what truly mattered in 2022, and what that means for winning in 2023.

Dec 19, 2022 – Sense of Reality – deceptive job market strength in the face of worldwide QT, and teetering on the brink of recession.

Dec 15, 2022 – Tough Inflation Stance Still – Fed flexibility on terminal Fed funds rate means shaky ground for Santa Claus rally.

Dec 13, 2022 – That Santa Sleigh – why the immediate bullish resolution to CPI was so easy to keep calling live for you on Twitter.

Dec 12, 2022 – Why Bulls Cheer the Coming Hit – bullish view of recession vs. what to truly expect (as regards Santa Claus too).

Dec 08, 2022 – The Dog That Didn‘t Bark – how the USD-yields-commodities interplay tipped the SPX bulls to start winning.

Dec 05, 2022 – Finest Opportunities Ahead – GDP and job market recession impact, Fed tightening revisited, best picks beyond stocks.

Nov 28, 2022 – Wildcard In – why the China uncertainty isn’t the Q4 rally top, and Q1 2023 stock market prospects.

Nov 21, 2022 – Fake Breakdown – why the S&P 500 with both tech and value participation would continue.

Nov 18, 2022 – Reflating – doubting the bearish shift that’s likely to result in a fake S&P 500 breakdown.

Nov 14, 2022 – Paradigm Shift – sectoral strength of the Q4 rally, why the Nov CPI was an important turning point (medium-term).

Nov 10, 2022 – Tight CPI Race – why the CPI release was to mark peak in inflation and serve as risk-on catalyst.

Nov 07, 2022 – That Bullish Catalyst – impact of China zero covid policy speculations lifting stocks and real assets, with a bullish PMs and commodities bias.

Oct 31, 2022 – Correction Time Indeed – USD top, Fed to relent in rate hikes after Nov, bullish PMs and copper calls.

Oct 26, 2022 – Q4 Rally Confirmed – stock market path since the Oct CPI turnaround call, the whipsaws and prospects ahead after overcoming the key resistance.

Oct 24, 2022 – Fate of Q4 Rally – the resistance zone to make the counter trend rally interesting, USD topping out, earnings and real economy prospects.

Oct 18, 2022 – Meeting Resistance – why Thursday’s batch of economic data would likely result in stock market declining.

Oct 17, 2022 – Corrective Setback – what could prove the Q4 rally catalyst, S&P 500 sectors to outperform and underperform.

Oct 10, 2022 – Still Elusive Rebound – NFPs confirmed the bears have the upper hand as Fed tightening goes on and neither yields nor the dollar have peaked.

Oct 07, 2022 – Really No Pivot – importance of knowing your trade’s rationale, and assessing the game plan in real time for securing profits.

Oct 04, 2022 – Fed Turn That Wasn’t – importance of keeping your cool and rational analytical objectivity even if markets temporarily go against you.

Oct 03, 2022 – SPX Bottom Near? – downside risks accentuated as the Fed didn’t relent yet, but a nice Q4 rally is in the making even if it would fail as the summer one did, PMs turning.

Sep 29, 2022 – Daily Turn or More – BoE turned but the Fed didn’t, dividend stocks analysis and suggestions.

Sep 26, 2022 – All Eyes on Long-Dated Treasuries – why this wans’t the S&P 500 bottom, the role of long-dated Treasuries in the real economy prospects, inflation progress, and the Fed’s still hawkish path giving way to at least neutral posture a couple of quarters down the road.

Sep 19, 2022 – Weak Rebound, Weak – sticky inflation and not making a clear peak, the Fed is to remain restrictive even if hiking by “only” 75bp, and housing as a leading indicator.

Sep 07, 2022 – Game Plan and More Selling – why the Powell speech, ECB and CPI with PPI hopes are misplaced in making the Fed back off from tightening.

Sep 01, 2022 – Cat and Mouse Game – why the Fed doesn‘t have the buyers’ back now, and why it can „afford“ to be more restrictive than generally appreciated.

Aug 29, 2022 – Bears Calling – Jackson Hole speech implications for the markets amid Fed’s bluntly repeated commitment to take on inflation now.

Aug 26, 2022 – Facing Damocles Sword – timeline of the daily and intraday S&P 500 trade executions shared live on Twitter throughout the day.

Aug 25, 2022 – Jackson Hole Plan – markets tipping their hand as to what to expect from Powell’s speech the following day.

Aug 23, 2022 – In a Heartbeat – Fed balance sheet and margin debt to illustrate waning liquidity.

Aug 22, 2022 – Enticing the Bears – deepening yield curve inversion, interest rates are getting too high for the weakening real economy.

Aug 17, 2022 – Turning Up the Heat – the economic slowdown path the real economy data keep painting.

Aug 15, 2022 – The Turn – examination of whether and why S&P 500 is in bear market rally or a new bull run.

Aug 09, 2022 – The Reversal – expecting soft CPI tomorrow, but the Fed won’t back off tightening as they have to take on inflation expectations.

Aug 08, 2022 – Unclosed Gap – 75bp hike in Sep becoming probable, but hawkish Fed is to get inflation to 5-6% CPI at best, and Fed funds rate would not to go above 4%.

Aug 05, 2022 – Bull Trap Ready – why NFPs are the bearish turnaround, the Bank of England tightening lessons for the Fed making the pivot still elusive.

Aug 01, 2022 – Bears to Have the Last Laugh – why the bullish S&P 500 run has to roll over in Aug, with Fed to still turn hawkish beyond balance sheet.

Jul 28, 2022 – Bullish Case Explained – the reasoning behind my continued bullish S&P 500 trade calls of late, with Fed insigths on top.

Jul 25, 2022 – Bearish Test – why the S&P 500 bears are a bit ahead of themselves, making a bit of a rebound before rollover in stocks likely.

Jul 18, 2022 – Risk-On Vs. Liquidity Squeeze – shape of the bottoming process in stocks, next Fed moves and economy prospects.

Jul 08, 2022 – launch of premium services – Monica’s Trading Signals, followed by Monica’s Stock Signals, and of course 1:1 consultations.

Jun 21, 2022 – No Dodging the Bullet –  why I see a recession and hard landing as the most likely outcomes.

Jun 15, 2022 – Will They Or Won’t They – the realities of feeble risk-on rallies, with copper and silver facing stiffest headwinds.

Jun 13, 2022 – The Breakdown – the Fed between a rock and a hard place, with PMs attempting to decouple from the belated hawkishness.

Jun 10, 2022 – The Break – stocks plunge right on cue as Fed’s dealing inflation is questioned, safe haven gold.

Jun 05, 2022 – The Horns of Fed‘s Dilemma – would inflation come down just enough to enable the Fed to support the sputtering real economy?

Jun 02, 2022 – Stall Speed Before Running – why the case in real assets isn’t short-tern lost even though patience is required.

May 31, 2022 – Game Plan Ahead – the just unfolding S&P 500 rally would roll over to fresh lows, don’t count on the Fed’s soft landing.

May 18, 2022 – False Dawn – the final lows in the stock market aren’t yet in, PMs are waking up, dollar topping.

May 13, 2022 – Turning Treasuries – Treasury yields are making a local top, S&P 500 to rise for a while.

May 09, 2022 – Sequencing the Turnaround – disbelieving the Fed to tame inflation, dollar topping over the coming weeks, assets trajectory next.

May 02, 2022 – Short-Lived Indeed – portfolio possibilities to navigate the tightening storm of the weeks and months to come.

Apr 25, 2022 – Still Lower to Go – real asset bulls should taper the appreciation expectations in the short run.

Apr 20, 2022 – Turning Around for Good? – why the S&P 500 rally is running out of time, with hawkish Powell about to sink it.

Apr 11, 2022 – Where Next, Bears? – seminal piece presenting S&P 500, yields, PMs and commodities projections, including sectoral picks for the medium-term and this decade. Plus the Fed, tightening and countdown to recession.

Mar 21, 2022 – Walking on Sunshine – the stock market most likely path in 1H 2022, setting up a buying opportunity in July 2022.

Mar 17, 2022 – Business As Usual – 7 rate hikes and balance sheet reduction starting spring 2022 isn’t going to happen.

Mar 16, 2022 – Snowball‘s Chance in Hell – the pressure on Powell to be really dovish, is on.

Mar 14, 2022 – Hanging By a Thread – RSP hasn‘t yet broken below its horizontal support as S&P 500 is hanging by a thread, copper presents the least volatile appreciation.

Mar 07, 2022 – Peculiar Reversal – there is something odd about the S&P 500 upswing, Fed rate hikes less probable, S&P 500 likely to retreat slightly vs. the Jan 2022 open.

Mar 04, 2022 – Back to Risk-Off – odds are stacked against paper market bulls, many signs of inflation to continue.

Mar 02, 2022 – Real Assets, Bonds and New Profits – what‘s most interesting about bonds now, is the relenting pressure on the Fed to raise rates.

Feb 25, 2022 – Risk Premium, Poof – money flows out of the dollar hiding, geopolitics uncertainty is getting removed in the markets‘ mind.

Feb 21, 2022 – Changing Gears – brief S&P 500 and bonds reprieve ahead even if consumer isn‘t in a great shape, 4-5% CPI for 2022 might turn out a full percentage point higher.

Feb 18, 2022 – Confirming Carnage – negative sentiment in stocks needs to be confirmed by risk-off bonds today, PMs are shining ever more brightly.

Feb 17, 2022 – Bearish Turn Coming – stock market correction hasn‘t run its course yet, commodities and precious metals likewise are acting very positively in this tightening cycle.

Feb 07, 2022 – Rally Time – little S&P 500 reprieve is next as bonds indicate, around May or June we would know whether we were just consolidating or topping out.

Jan 31, 2022 – Working Out Great – verbal pause in Fed hawkishness driving S&P 500 as bond divergencies to stocks abound.

Jan 27, 2022 – One More Time – I’m not looking the perceived hawkishness to be able to go all the way – as the Fed overplays its tightening hand, we would see rates retreat again in 2022.

Jan 26, 2022 – Rushing Headlong – time to calm down and reprice the excessively hawkish Fed fears.

Jan 21, 2022 – Still Pushing for More – washout S&P 500 bottom approaching, portfolio performance chart as it’s 1 year today since I launched my site (later that day cashed fresh S&P 500 short profits to bring the equity curve even higher).

Jan 17, 2022 – Oil Smashing Stocks – we haven’t seen the end of SPX selling even if 2022 is likely to end up around 5,150.

Jan 13, 2022 – All Eyes on Copper – sure, hawkish Fed moves outlined would do the inflation fighting trick…

Jan 10, 2022 – Stocks Meet Stagflation – high inflation won‘t be tamed by the hawkish Fed, inflation-induced economic slowdown would be a 2022 surprise.

Jan 06, 2022 – Game of Chicken –  jobs data to provide the Fed with a convenient tightening cover, risking a tantrum rivalling Dec 2018.

Jan 04, 2022 – Beneath the Surface, Rally – market breadth improving, none of the fundamental or monetary with fiscal policy originating PMs reasoning has been invalidated.

Dec 30, 2021 – Celebrating Santa Challenge As Over – Santa Claus rally indeed hasn‘t yet run its course, my best wishes for 2022.

Dec 28, 2021 – What‘s Not to Love Here – the Dec 21 called Santa Claus rally to keep giving, explanation of the true message of compressed yield curve.

Dec 23, 2021 – Still More to Come – Santa rally to go on, Merry Christmas wishes.

Dec 20, 2021 – Dollar‘s Warning Signal – 2022 targets in S&P 500 and 10-year Treasury yield while inflation isn‘t about to recede in the short run.

Dec 15, 2021 – Tough Choices Ahead – overly hawkish Fed expectations are misplaced, the Fed will be forced to reverse course abruptly in 2022.

Dec 13, 2021 – On a Knife-Edge – global economic activity might be peaking, liquidity around the world is shrinking already, 2022 is going to be tough.

Dec 07, 2021 – Turning the Corner in Style – follow up question to yesterday’s analysis answered.

Dec 06, 2021 – Topping Process Roadmap – what to watch so as to determine whether we are really midway in the topping process.

Dec 03, 2021 – Bonds Didn‘t Disappoint – Fed is desperately behind the curve in taming inflation, and its late acknowledgment thereof doesn‘t change the bleak prospects of tapering into a sputtering economy.

Dec 01, 2021 – It‘s the Fed, Not Omicron – any inflation reprieve the scary news buys would likely turn out only temporary.

Nov 29, 2021 – Day That Changed the World? – only if helping hand isn’t extending and hard curbs to economic activity are introduced, we are looking at a sharp selloff.

Nov 24, 2021 – Waking Up the Giants – the fresh Fed hawkish talking games are a formidable headwind, presenting bulish side to USD argument.

Nov 23, 2021 – Betting on Hawkish Fed – yields differential between the U.S. and the rest of the world getting more positive, but Powell would be forced to make a sharp dovish turn.

Nov 15, 2021 – Getting Real on PMs and Inflation – risks to the real economy coupled with persistently high inflation rising since 2Q 2022 if not since Mar already, but most pronounced in 2H 2022.

Nov 08, 2021 – Calling the Precious Metals Bull – sensing the upcoming (early Dec) greenback weakness has been part and parcel of the gold and silver resilience of late, with more to come.

Nov 03, 2021 – Lip Service to Inflation, Again – looking for the Fed to soften taper before it can run its course (i.e. before 2H 2022 arrives).

Nov 01, 2021 – Don‘t Fear Risk-Off – I ask how serious can the Fed be about delivering on taper promises when the economy is slowing already.

Oct 27, 2021 – The Dollar Dog That Doesn‘t Bark – look for the dollar first to signal weakening of the risk-off positioning.

Oct 25, 2021 – Pause Before the Run – Powell‘s latest pronouncements on Nov taper readiness don‘t pack the same punch as they did in Jun.

Oct 20, 2021 – Ever More Risk-On – summer yields lull indeed followed by renewed march higher, Fed inflation narratives progression into 2022.

Oct 15, 2021 – Key Market Shift Confirmed – on the importance of immediate adjustments to the bullish turns so as to power portfolio performance to fresh highs.

Oct 12, 2021 – S&P 500 Uphill Battle – hot CPI to confirm raging inflation.

Oct 01, 2021 – Sharp Market Turns Not To Miss – pesky inflation acknowledged by the Fed, energy crunch through China ordering its state-owned enterprises to secure oil supplies at any cost.

Sep 30, 2021 – Inflation Waking Up Bonds – the slowly but surely acknowledged inflation surprise will come back to bite.

Sep 27, 2021 – Reflation vs. Stagflation – the bigger picture leaves the ambitious Nov tapering suspect.

Sep 23, 2021 – So Much for Hawkish Fed – very aggressive $10-15bn a month taper plans set the bar a bit too high.

Sep 22, 2021 – Rescued by the Fed Again? – S&P 500 bears in need of a fresh reason to sell, Fed taper is a side show (already tightening through the back door), the slow and steady rising yields phase is deferred for now as we’re in a decelerating real economy faced with numerous deflationary pressures.

Sep 13, 2021 – Where Are the Fireworks? – S&P 500 is starting to run into headwinds thanks to inflation, stagflation worries.

Aug 27, 2021 – Taper Shock That Never Was – stealth real attempts to test the markets‘ tolerance to the continuing monetary largesse, Powell is keen to cement his legacy.

Aug 19, 2021 – Taper Squeeze Is On! – Fed would have a much harder time withdrawing liquidity now, taking on inflation through the dollar doesn‘t come without its own risks.

Aug 17, 2021 – Between a Rock and a Hard Place – it would be a tall order to turn off the spigot into a weakening economy.

Aug 13, 2021 – Fresh Highs to Meet Fresh Volatility – there is no forcing the Fed‘s hand through rising yields, the Fed practically having to do something in Jackson Hole– in all likelihood face saving only.

Aug 11, 2021 – CPI Fuel and the Smoldering Inflation Fire – regardless of the lower monthly CPI figure, inflation will keep being a thorn in its side for a long time.

Aug 09, 2021 – Gold and Silver Massacre to Continue? – Treasury yields made a double bottom, tech to give way to cyclicals, then inflation, reopening trades and interest-rate sensitive spreads (e.g. financials over utilities) should start doing better just as gold when taper is announced.

Aug 02, 2021 – Best Assets to Profit Now On – inflation / reopening trades still alive, Fed ill-positioned to withdraw liquidity à la 2018, Copper Trading Signals started.

Jul 06, 2021 – The Rise of Precious Metals and Commodities – real assets surging again, Fed as inflation fighter is subject to well deserved mockery.

Jun 29, 2021 – The Run Ignoring Inflation – Fed is behind the curve in taking on inflation, with only PMs behind the curve.

Jun 24, 2021 – Stocks Love the Back and Forth with the Fed – job market excuses forrr Fed “tightening” (long copper Standard and Advanced Money Management …. $4.30)

Jun 23, 2021 – Dialing Back the Fed Fears for Now – Fed “tightening” and “transitory”redefinitions powering rebound of inflation trades.

Jun 21, 2021 – Fed Didn‘t Tame Inflation – seeing through the smoke and mirrors of the Fed “tightening”.

Jun 10, 2021 – Inflation Storm Coming – in defence of inflation trades having further to run, Fed reluctant to act.

Jun 08, 2021 – One Last Hooray Before CPI? – greenback to reflexively rise on taper prospects.

Jun 04, 2021 – Another Taper Mirage Comes and Goes – taper very premature, barely budging inflation expectations, Treasury market vulnerability exposed yesterday, no slaying the stock market, PMs and commodities bulls.

Jun 03, 2021 – When Markets Get Scared and Reverse – betting on taper through good ADP report is premature.

Jun 02, 2021 – Reversals, Inflation, and Scares of Any Kind – transitory vs. permanent inflation and why inflation is goign to take front seat to a growth scare as inflation won’t retreat nearly enough.

May 27, 2021 – Hanging by a Proverbial Thread – so far it‘s only the precious metals that are calling the Fed‘s taper bluff, behaving as if the inflation battle has been lost.

May 26, 2021 – Eerily Serene Risk-off Markets – Treasury market reprieve I announced on May 18 to last more than a few good weeks, is here.

May 21, 2021 – Tug of War and Its Profitable Resolution – Fed taper intentions, inflation projections, reflation, reopenings and value still outperforming growth, why gold is underpinned.

May 19, 2021 – Bug in Search of Windshield – on thriving when inflation fears are hitting hard and the market doubts Fed’s willingness to fight it.

May 17, 2021 – Same Old Song and Dance – Almost – transitory vs. permanently elevated inflation discussion.

May 14, 2021 – Is the Selling Madness About Over? – tech posture improving, markets coming to terms with higher inflation.

May 12, 2021 – Bulls Coming to Terms with Inflation – CPI may force the Fed as much as it wants to, but the central bank won’t act on inflation.

May 07, 2021 – Ready for More Hot Gold and Stocks Profits – oil analysis, Bitcoin analysis, Oil Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals started.

May 06, 2021 – Stocks and Gold – Hot and Hotter – upcoming SPX break higher, USDX vulnerable, gold and silver about to shake off the dollar shackles and catch up to commodities.

May 03, 2021 – Taper Smoke and Mirrors – Kaplan trial baloon won’t save USD, Bitcoin analysis.

Apr 29, 2021 – Enough Consolidation Already! – oil analysis.

Apr 26, 2021 – No Upsetting the Apple Cart in Stocks or Gold – we’re in an inflation environment already, USD bear market reasserting itself.

Apr 23, 2021 – The Tax Plan to Slay the Stock Bull? – Bitcoin analysis.

Apr 21, 2021 – Gold Unleashed – Rip Your Face Off Rally Is Here – oil analysis.

Apr 20, 2021 – Gold Reversal? Have No Fear! – USD trend is down now.

Apr 15, 2021 – Stocks, Gold and Commodities Meet the Fed – SPX correction to be very temporary, as Fed confirmed inflation tolerance and no buybacks in bonds, PMs to take commodities’ cue next.

Apr 07, 2021 – On the Verge of Stocks Pullback – extended but S&P 500 is in a major bull market with 95%+ stocks above 200-day moving average.

Apr 01, 2021 – Stock ATHs and Gold Double Bottom – rising inflation expectations still no issue for stocks, gold turning positive.

Mar 29, 2021 – What Could Slay the Stock & Gold Bulls – why the Fed unlikely to act now won’t result in deflation, and why stock market’s eventual woes from rising yields would bring about first deflation then USD devaluation against gold in the far future.

Mar 26, 2021 – Why It‘s Reasonable to Be Bullish Stocks and Gold – reflation trade dynamic returning, fresh money avalange & MMT, no deflation scare.

Mar 19, 2021 – Breaking the Spell of Rising Yields – how doubting the Fed puts a floor undet PMs, gold decoupling from TLT, still bullish oil analysis.

Mar 17, 2021 – Squaring the Bets Prior to the Fed – how expectation from the Fed fit into the stimulus barrage, stocks and precious metals upswing.

Mar 15, 2021 – Gold and Stock Bulls Are Getting Ready – relating rising inflation expectations to yields, sticking by the great Russell 2000 prospects.

Mar 12, 2021 – Resting Stock Bulls and Gold Question Marks – why the market knows the Fed won’t do anything more now, and what happens in gold, dollar and emerging markets once it acts. How far gold is in discounting that outcome.

Mar 09, 2021 – Stocks Shaking Off Weak Tech As Gold Bottoms? – Mar 08 analysis enriched with the TLT & USDX eyes. Extensive examples of my profitable trade calls through the years, and 2021 portfolio call successes.

Mar 08, 2021 – No More Rocking the Boat in Stocks But Gold? – nominal rates, real rates, inflation and inflation expectation explained as regards stocks and gold. Long-term view of gold, silver and copper. The consequences of the coming Fed response.

Mar 04, 2021 – Are S&P 500 and Precious Metals Bears Just Getting Started? – game plan for gold nearing key supports, as markets twist Fed’s hand (gold … $1,701).

Mar 01, 2021 – Stocks, Gold – Rebound or Dead Cat Bounce? – identifying S&P 500 sectoral plays to do well & laying the optimistic case for new stock highs sooner than many might think.

Feb 25, 2021 – Why Tech Is Giving Me Jeepers – Watch Out, Gold – calling the tech plunge and dangers for gold.

Feb 24, 2021 – Tech Holds the Key to S&P 500 – the lack of follow-through in gold leads me to bang the warning drum all the way to Fri’s $1,720 selloff (gold downwards … $1,806 till $1,720).

Feb 22, 2021 – Kiss of Life for Gold – the anticipated sharp upswing in gold materialized (gold upwards … $1,777 till $1,806).

Feb 19, 2021 – Why the Sky Is Not Falling in Precious Metals – the razor’s edge we’re at in gold as the heat from plunging long-term Treasuries intensifies, forcing the Fed into war on two fronts – yet neither the yellow metal nor miners are diving without end in sight, just zoom out.

Feb 18, 2021 – S&P 500 Correction – No Need to Hold Onto Your Hat – the Fed moves, stock market bull run in no jeopardy, and quickening long-dated Treasuries slump forcing the central bank eventually into yield curve control.

Feb 17, 2021 – Is That the S&P 500 And Gold Correction Finally? – anatomy of the gold bull run and Fed actions through 2015-2021, diving into inflation cascading through the system and its effects upon precious metals and commodities taking the outperformance baton one from the other.

Feb 12, 2021 – S&P 500 Correction Looming, Just as in Gold – Or Not? – introducing the long silver short gold spread trade idea as a highly promising and immediate one (long silver … $27.30 & short gold … $1,823).

Feb 10, 2021 – Stocks Ripe for a Breather As Gold and Silver Remain Strong – uranium analysis, bullish outlook on uranium as a commodity and as an ETF (long URA …. $17.50)

Feb 09, 2021 – PMs Charging Higher As Stocks Keep Pushing On a String – oil analysis calling out for higher $WTIC prices, bullish 2021+ outlook (long $WTIC … $58).

Feb 08, 2021 – Gold About To Spring As Stocks Cool Off At Highs – calling dollar as topping out, and its coming downleg targeting new lows (short $USD … 91.10).

Feb 01, 2021 – How to Shake Off the Blues in Stocks and Break Out in Gold – why this GameStop coinciding correction is likely over in stocks, why being long silver makes sense for longer-term oriented investors & how to play silver squeeze and similar events. Gold Trading Signals started.

Jan 25, 2021 – Rosy February for S&P 500? Not So Fast – big picture view and 2021 prognostications across many assets including Bitcoin alongside others (long $BTC … $32,275).

Sign Up for Monica’s Insider Club!

It’s free and you’ll get my message right when a new post goes up.

Scroll to Top